Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 270445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1145 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Issued at 1145 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Updated grids and products earlier to add some areas of fog for the
overnight hours. Made minor adjustments to POPs overnight too,
otherwise no significant changes.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Manual 12z upper-air analysis showed a long-wave trough from the lee
of the Canadian Rockies into the southern Rockies with a downstream
sub-tropical high centered over the southern Appalachians.  Between
these features, water vapor imagery indicates a short-wave trough
moving into the northern and central High Plains with a weaker
vorticity lobe located over northeast Kansas. At the surface, 18z
mesoanalysis placed a low over northeast Kansas -- coincident with
the upper-air system-- with an associated warm frontal segment
extending northeast through northwest Missouri into south-central

Showers and thunderstorms now developing over northeast Kansas in
association with the above-mentioned impulse are expected to
spread northeast along the warm front with portions of southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa being impacted by this activity. An
isolated strong to severe storm could affect far southeast
Nebraska later this afternoon into evening with the more organized
severe weather threat likely remaining to the south of our area.

Farther to the northwest, a short-wave trough emerging into the
northern and central High Plains has focused a band of
precipitation from central South Dakota to western Nebraska as of
early afternoon. This short-wave trough is forecast to undergo
rapid weakening as it ejects northeast into the upper Great Lakes
ahead of a more substantial polar-branch short-wave trough
amplifying over the northern Plains. This will likely result in
the decay of the precipitation band as it approaches northeast
Nebraska this evening into tonight, as suggested by a consensus of
model guidance. As such, we have lowered POPs considerably.

Mid-level heights will rebound on Saturday into Saturday night
with the passage of the polar-branch trough (mentioned above) to
our northeast. There could be some lingering showers across
eastern and southern counties early Saturday with decreasing
clouds allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower

Sunday into Monday, a weak southern-stream trough will edge east
from the Rockies into the central Plains, supporting slight
chance to low-chance POPs. We will see warmer daytime temperatures
during that time frame with readings in the mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

The 12z medium-range models continue to indicate the
amplification of a mid-level ridge next week from the north-
central U.S. into central Canada. The passage of a mid-level
trough through Ontario and the Great Lakes early next week will
drive a surface front into the mid Missouri Valley. This boundary
will begin to lift back north of the area during the middle to
latter part of the work week. The presence of this feature will
support a continued chance (albeit low) of storms. Daytime highs
are expected to remain in the lower to mid 80s.


Issued at 1145 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Ceiling had already dropped into the IFR category as of 1145 pm.
It still looks like conditions will deteriorate at KOMA and KLNK
later tonight, down into the IFR category. An area of SHRA and
TSRA continued to track eastward across south central Nebraska and
north central Kansas. Will include some mention of pcpn at KLNK
but chances seem too low to mention at KOFK or KOMA for now.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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