Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 282008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
308 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Precip chances dramatically increase tonight into Wednesday as
large scale forcing for ascent overspreads the region. Pops moving
into the categorical range through the night, with instability
parameters suggesting thunder remains just south of the forecast
area across eastern Kansas and Missouri. Bumped up lows a couple
of degrees for tonight, now in the lower to mid 40s.

Widespread precip continues Wednesday across the forecast area,
with limited instability moving into areas south of I80 during the
afternoon and evening. Going to be a very wet, somewhat raw day,
with northeast winds at 15 to 25 mph, and a very limited diurnal
rise of 2 to 4 degrees in the rain if that, with highs still in
the mid 40s. Keep the rain gear handy.

Precip threat continues into Wednesday night as the deformation
band remains across the region. There will also be a dry slot
moving into the area, which may have an impact on where that band
sets up, but will have highest categorical Pops that continue
along Interstate 80 during the evening. Precip rates really begin
to diminish after midnight Wednesday night, but showers still
linger into Thursday morning. Could even be a few snow flakes
mixing in late Wednesday night into Thursday morning in northeast
NE, but no accumulation expected. Rain ends altogether by Thursday
afternoon. Highs Thursday should still cool in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

Remainder of the short term remains dry, with highs still below
normal Friday in the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Looks like another wet and somewhat dreary weekend as precip
chances spread into the region as a result of another closed upper
low moving out of the southwest CONUS. Rain threat increases
through the day Saturday, but especially Saturday afternoon and
into Sunday. Additional precip chances Monday into Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Latest GOES16 data showing break in clouds over extreme northeast
Nebraska related to moderate isentropic downglide at 300K. As such
KOFK may vacillate between MVFR and VFR through afternoon hours
and have covered with TEMPO. KOMA also may experience a brief
period of thin MVFR overcast or broken ceilings, but kept
prevailing MVFR cig for the time being. By 00UTC, large scale
isentropic ascent begins in earnest across the forecast area.
Moistening of lower levels of the atmosphere will take some
time, with short term models not depicting saturation at 290-295K
(925-700) until 03-06 UTC. Introduced VCSH at KOFK & KLNK and
by 03 UTC at KOMA, MVFR visibilities due to rain and mist expected
by 06 UTC at all three TAF sites. Expect ceilings to lower into
IFR category, but timing is uncertain, and followed guidance
for the time being.




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