Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 250911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL BUILD NORTHEAST AND
REACH THE VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY BEFORE RECEDING FARTHER
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA SUNDAY AND THEN SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAWN...AND THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WILL SETTLE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AT 10
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STILL REMAIN MILD FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH
(DAYTIME) HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY
CLR BY AFTERNOON OVER MOST AREAS...WITH SOME EXTRA CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FCST. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS AT MOST
LEVELS. OUT WEST THE GFS`S TROF APPEARED TOO STRONG, WHICH IS NOT
NORMALLY THE MODELING BIAS ERROR. IN SPITE OF THE START, THE OP
GFS RUN KIND OF FLOWED IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE OTHER MODELS.

ALL OF THE MODELS RESPECTIVE TO THEIR OWN PREVIOUS SOUNDING RUNS
TRENDED FLATTER WITH THE WEAVES ON THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
BIGGEST LEAP WAS BY THE UKMET WHICH HAD BEEN TAKING A VIGOROUS LOW
NW OF OUR CWA AROUND MONDAY. EVEN THE CAN GGEM WHICH IS MOST
BULLISH WITH PCPN AND SNOW TRENDED FLATTER (STILL BULLISH THOUGH).
WHILE THE 00Z RUN WAS FLATTER GIVEN HOW SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH
EACH MODEL SOUNDING RUN HAS BEEN CAUSING CWA SIZE DISPLACEMENT OF
PCPN FIELDS, THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS STAYED CLOSE TO CONTINUITY
UNTIL SUCCESSIVE SOUNDING RUNS START PRODUCING A TRENDING AND
CONSISTENT OUTCOME. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THE LONG TERM WILL
START UNSEASONABLY MILD AND BECOME COLDER THAN NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
AS THE PV SETTLES AROUND BAFFIN ISLAND AND THE UPPER HUDSON BAY.
RELATIVE TO NORMAL WHAT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS MORE
OFF KILTER THAN THE END OF THE LONG TERM, EVEN IF IT WILL FEEL
COLDER THAN IT REALLY IS. ALSO DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD, THE
CHANCES FOR SNOW AS A PTYPE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT OUR CWA. THE
QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO HAVE THAT PTYPE GENERATE AND REACH THE GROUND.

ANYTIME A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM TEXAS, ITS NOT GOING
TO BE COLD. COUPLED WITH THE CURRENT INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING MORE NORTH THAN EAST DOESNT MAKE FOR A COLD RECIPE. SKYWISE
THIS HAS BEEN ONE DEPRESSINGLY CLOUDY MONTH. BUT FOR ONCE, THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY TRAPPED STRATOCU
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AS WELL AS GIVING US CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE 90S AND LOW 100S. DARE WE PREDICT, A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY?  GFS MOS
MAX TEMPS SUPPORT THE OP NAM`S THERMAL FIELDS MORE SO THAN ITS OWN
MOS GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS LEANED STRONGLY THE FORMER`S WAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. WE LEANED
COLDER THAN STAT GUIDANCE IN OUTLYING AREAS BECAUSE OF THIS.

AS CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC AS WE WERE ABOVE THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER ON
FRIDAY, WE ARE NOT AS MUCH NORTH FOR SATURDAY. SOME MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA AS WELL
AS THE UBIQUITOUS TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE MET THIS HALFWAY FOR
NOW GIVEN THAT THE PREDECESSOR AIR MASS SHOULD BE STARTING DRY. THERE
IS BETTER MODEL FCST SOUNDING AGREEMENT ABOUT MAX TEMPS. HERE WE
ARE CLOSEST TO THE STAT GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTED THE SAME: AN ECMWF
AND GFS MOS BLEND.

CLOUDS SHOULD START INCREASING ON SATURDAY NIGHT, VERY LOW CHANCE OF
A SHOWER SNEAKING INTO THE POCONOS BEFORE DAWN, TOO LOW FOR NOW TO
INCLUDE. ON SUNDAY, THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS LESS
OF AN ANAFRONT LOOK TO IT, SO WE OPTED TO CALL IT SHOWERS. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SUB 850MB LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
AS A PTYPE.

FROM HERE THE FORECAST STARTS LAPSING INTO GREATER UNCERTAINTY
BECAUSE OF MODELING HANDLING OF THE TROFFING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION IN THE FAR NORTHWEST GULF AND MODELING HANDLING OF EACH
IMPULSE CORRECTLY.

SO WHILE THERE IS STILL DECENT CONSENSUS ABOUT AN UPPER AIR IMPULSE
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, GEOGRAPHICALLY IT WAS SAGGED FARTHER SOUTH. THE
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS CONFLUENT, SO ONE WOULD EXPECT
THE SHEARING AND DAMPENING OF IMPULSES. ON THE OTHER HAND, MODELS
OFTEN WEAKEN THEM TOO QUICKLY. HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT ARE SOUTH
OF THE MASON AND DIXON LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING SNOW
AS A POSSIBLE PTYPE ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PA TURNPIKE/I195
CORRIDOR LATE. SOUNDINGS SO FAR ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN AS THERE IS NO STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COLD AIR AT
EITHER 925MB OR THE SFC.

IT GETS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LATEST
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TRENDED MUCH MORE SUBDUED WITH THE WAVE ON THE
FRONT. AS STATED ABOVE UNTIL WE SEE SUCCESSIVE SOUNDING RUNS
INDICATE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND WITH SOME GEFS MEMBERS WETTER, WE
KEPT THE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR
SNOW INCREASE FARTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA, THE CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
LESS.

ON TUESDAY DRY OR NOT, THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING A CHANNELIZED VORT
MAX TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS WAS ENOUGH FOR THE PGFS TO GENERATE PCPN
OVER OUR CWA. WE KEPT IN SLGT CHC POPS. THERMALLY WERE PCPN TO OCCUR
IN OUR CWA TUESDAY, IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN MOST AREAS.
WE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DRY.

WITH THE RETURN OF THE -EPO RIDGE, THE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE
CONUS IS ORIGINATING IN SIBERIA. ITS FIRST ENTERING THE CONUS IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, SO IT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS FEROCITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. REGARDLESS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS IT COMES
CLOSER AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG/PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THRU
10Z-14Z AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. SKY
COVER WILL IMPROVE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER FROPA WITH VFR SLATED TO
RETURN THIS MORNING TO ALL THE SITES. THERE MAY BE SOME DAYTIME SC
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS...SO SOME BKN035 SC WAS TEMPO(ED) FOR
KABE. TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AIRPORTS, VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES AS WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD BE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH FROPA
OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE DENSE FOG WILL BE
BROKEN UP BY THE INCREASING WINDS...SO WE WILL LET THE DENSE FOG
WORDING IN THE FCST AND MWW GO WITH THE 330 AM ISSUANCE. WINDS
WILL BECOME WRLY THIS MORNING AND WRLY/NWRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN IN THE SCA GUST RANGE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. I HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED THE SCA FLAG UNTIL 03Z FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND SRN DEL
BAY WITH THE GUSTS EXPECTED TO LAST A BIT LONGER. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MOSTLY 4-6 FT TODAY AND 2-5 FT OVER DEL BAY. SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY.

LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS ON THE MENTIONED FRONT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IF
THIS LOW INTENSIFIES FASTER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA






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