Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 240751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A MUCH BETTER DAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WERE.
IT WILL STILL BE WINDY BUT IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND BE
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WE WILL THEN REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW.

TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST OF THE PRETTY WINDY DAYS AS THE LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH.

SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY BUT WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SOME CLEARING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST,
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S,
WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT. WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE SHOULD RADIATE A BIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH DRY
AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
TRICKLED INTO KABE, KRDG AND KPHL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY 14Z. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FROM 14Z ON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

WINDS HAVE LOST THEIR GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS ANDI GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO LOOSEN UP A BIT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVER THE WATERS TODAY, IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. WE START
TO LOSE THE GUSTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




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