Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 160941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
541 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS
THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND
ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN
NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT
HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA
UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW
THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FROM KRDG TO KPHL TO
KACY AND POINTS SOUTH. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED SHRA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS
EVEN WITH SHOWERS, EXPECT CONTINUED HIGH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS.
ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE LIMITED. BY 15Z, SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONNTINUE INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON






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