Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 160134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. A RIDGE FROM THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AND HAVE HAD TO INCREASE POPS N
AND W AND KEEP THEM HIGH EVERYWHERE ELSE. HOPEFULLY, THINGS SHOULD
START TO WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH TEMPS
DROPPING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE CDFNT, ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SLEET
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W, AND SNOW OVER THE EXTREME N AND W,
WHERE WE HAVE RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS.
YES, ITS MID-APRIL! WILL GRADUALLY TAPER POPS THRU THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND MORE SO BY MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER. THIS IS A SLOWER
TREND THEN ORIGINALLY FCST.


THE NEXT CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES. THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. AS SUCH,
GUIDANCE CAME IN LOWER FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND IN DECREASING THE LOWS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE FREEZE
WARNING NOW INCLUDES THE NJ COASTAL ZONES. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
WARNING WILL SEE A FREEZE AS WELL, HOWEVER, IT IS STILL EARLIER THAN
THE MEDIAN LAST FREEZE DATE, SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WARNING FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW, DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RECOVERY. THUS, HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S. STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MEX AND MAV GUIDANCE

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. WE EXPECT A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE A IT WARMER THAN TUE
NIGHT...BUT STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. FREEZE WATCH HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE/DYNAMICS TO
BRING IN SOME CLOUDS AND TOUCH OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS...BUT WE HAVE
KEPT THE POPS ONLY AT THE CHC LEVEL FOR NOW. OVERALL...SAT WILL NOT
BE TOO BAD A DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR SAT
NIGHT THRU MONDAY. MORE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. THIS HIGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE AREA MON NIGHT AND LASTING INTO NEXT TUE. WE HAVE
SIDED WITH THE WPC FOR THE MOST PART AND GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL TAF SITES AND EVERYONE HAS SHIFTED TO
THE NW. HOWEVER, ENOUGH RAIN IS TILL AROUND THAT MOST SITES REMAIN
MVFR OR AT LEAST STILL HAVE THAT POSSIBILITY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE IMPROVEMENT TREND IS SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST, SO
HAVE PUSHED IT BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER, THE TREND IS STILL
THERE AND SHOULD BECOME VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STAY BREEZY OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER 09Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NWLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND CFP.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. SCA
CONDITIONS BOTH FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS COULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...A PERIOD OF MOSTLY LOW-END SCA
    CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN...AND SUB-SCA ON DEL BAY.
SAT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-070-
     071-101>104-106.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-101>104-106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012>027.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>003.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/O`HARA





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