Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 281200
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WELL ADVERTISED MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTI-CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR SRN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA
MEASURING CENTRAL H5 HEIGHTS AT 585DM AND H8 TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
+24C. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND UNUSUALLY HIGH MIXING DEPTHS...THICKNESS
MEASURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND (1000-850MB
VALUES EXCEEDING 143DM) YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
(SOME LOCATIONS AROUND YUMA LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 100 DEGREE
THRESHOLD). OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DAILY RECORDS
WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME SUBTLE
COOLING NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY NEAR 28N 132W IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LARGER WAVE BREAKING INTO THE APEX OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS WILL
DAMPEN/DISPLACE THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK. MODEL
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THROUGH SONORA MONDAY...AND ONLY MODEST FLUX OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS
MORE MEAGER MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT SUCH THAT FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS
NOW ONLY SUGGEST BARELY OVER 3 G/KG OF WELL MIXED MOISTURE
PROFILES...AND SATURATION ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO HEIGHTS
ABOVE 15K FT.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEST TYPIFIED BY A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE PATTERN MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 572DM AND 578DM THROUGH THE PERIOD ONLY MODULATED
BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. THE PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE MAY FOSTER AN INCREASED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT YIELDING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL (THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
REMAINING THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION WITH WELL ORGANIZED FROPA THE END
OF NEXT WEEK). REGARDLESS...DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CLOSE TO 10F
ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...

CITY         MARCH 28      MARCH 29
----         --------      --------
PHOENIX     95 IN 1986     95 IN 1971
YUMA        97 IN 1893    100 IN 1879

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE
MOST PART FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY IS LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 5-11 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN



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