Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 050941
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL FROM
TODAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST LOWER DESERT
LOCALES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
COOLER WEATHER IS THE EXPECTED FROM THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK
AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR OUR
CWA...AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT REMAINS ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ONLY WEATHER
CONCERN...AND IT IS A VERY MINOR ONE...IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SE AZ ON FRI/SAT AS A BIT OF
ENERGY GETS TRAPPED/CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CENTER OVER NORTHERN CA. THE EURO ACTUALLY TRYS TO DEVELOP SOME
VERY LIGHT QPF OVER SE/EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AS IT PULLS
A BIT OF MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THE
DRIER GFS/NAM DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY QPF AT THIS POINT. GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS ON CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN/AROUND THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFOMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE
DRIER SOLN...KEEPING POPS WELL DOWN IN THE LOWER SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE
FOR NOW.

THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BE TO JUST SLOW OUR
WARMING TREND DOWN A BIT...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S TODAY...UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY...THEN
PAUSING IN THE 80-85F RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. THE WARMING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED TO RESUME ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S AT SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS BY
TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOLING TREND...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
IS EXPECTED ON NEXT WED AND THU AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND A SOMEWHAT COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER DOWN IN THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS
WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE EAST/NORTHEAST AND ELEVATED AT 10-18 MPH...WITH
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS
WESTWARD AT 8-15 MPH. MORE TYPICAL WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN PREVAIL
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...GZ



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