Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 022126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO LATER FRIDAY.  THE PRIMARY
NEAR/SHORT-TERM ISSUES ARE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AT TIMES AS WELL AS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...BELOW
SEASONAL EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT BASICALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL(SEVERE AT TIMES) AND GUSTY WINDS AS PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C
AND 35 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WANES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY...WITH
CAPE VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE EARLY EVENING. NAM
SHOWS MCS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND GFS HINTS AT IT...SO
NOT SO SURE IT WILL MATERIALIZE. STAY TUNED. MEANTIME...IN THE
WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL FADE BY MID EVENING.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS COLORADO...BUT WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NAM AND GFS SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT EASTWARD...DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...AND
THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAY BE A BIT
MORE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH. SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND SET THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...GFS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MAY BE TO STABLE TO KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ADJACENT TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 1000 J/KG SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWINGING MORE SOUTHERLY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE MORE. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEMS A BETTER BET ACROSS
THE I-25 AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...MIGRATING OUT SOME INTO THE
PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL PROJECTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO
POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...77


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