Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 022108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM NWRN
NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS REACH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH RATHER LOW  CAPE
(200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL STAY ISOLATED
AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE
OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY EVENING
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGF FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS SEE
LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK
FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH AFTN IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND 90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON AFTN AND
EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS...MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...MON AFTN AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

TSRA WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION ONLY AT KALS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME VERY WEAK CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD KCOS AND KPUB 23Z-03Z...BUT DOUBTFUL
THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL AND WON`T
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK
CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THU
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. ON THU...CONVECTION WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA THU WILL BE AT KALS...LESSER
CHANCES AT KPUB AND KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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