Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 041735
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1135 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

CURRENTLY...

CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LVL RIDGE LIES JUST
TO OUR WEST. TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AT 3 AM...WITH
20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TODAY...

EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT ISOLD -TSRA OVER THE HIGHER MTN TOPS...IT WILL
BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...60S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S MTNS. SFC WINDS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN

TONIGHT...

RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. EXCEPT FOR A FEW INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TRRN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT
OVERALL WE WILL BE UNSETTLED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A STORM
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING. THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY WITH WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 90 AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE THE GREATEST
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO UTAH. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL EJECT NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE DEVELOPS...WITH THE GFS OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WHILE
THE NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE FURTHER WEST. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND COOLER CONDITIONS. THE
ECMWF TAKES A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NORTHERLY TRACK...WITH MUCH
LESS PRECIPITATION AND WARMER CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS HAS BOTH DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND A MAJORITY OF OUR PLAINS DRY.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS UNDER 15
KTS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT


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