Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 262136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
336 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The majority of the precipitation is just about done for the
mountains...though some residual showers will continue over the
mountains due to instability.  Localized snowfall accumulations of
an inch or two will be possible through the evening above 8500 feet.
Meanwhile...fragmented deformation band showers across the plains
will continue to pull away to the east this evening with dry weather
returning overnight to all areas.  Given the rainfall...there is a
risk for some patchy ground fog...though it will likely be confined
to the river valleys and areas which received heavier rainfall.

Monday will start out on the dry side...however the next upper trof
will be dropping through the western US into the Great Basin by 00z
Tues.  Southwest flow will increase across the area with another
round of showers spreading into the Continental Divide by mid
day...and into the southeast mountains towards late afternoon. Snow
levels will remain high...though will be dropping to around 9000
feet out west by late afternoon.  Snowfall accumulations of an inch
or two will be possible across the higher peaks...though additional
snowfall is expected for Monday night.  Overall...snowfall rates
stay on the light no highlights anticipated at this time.
The southeast plains will remain dry...with a return of warmer
temperatures...though high clouds will spread in and thicken through
the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...Storm Conveyor Belt Developing...

Monday night through Thursday morning...A strong low pressure system
is expected to drop across the Great Basin on Monday. Latest model
runs indicate that the low will sweep across the Four Corners on
Tue, northern new Mexico Tue night, the Panhandles on Wed, then
finally exit east along the KS/OK border late Wed night. Models are
in fairly good agreement on the timing and placement, though the GFS
is indicating a slightly more northern placement which meshes well
with the NAM. This storm will bring heavy wet snow to the mountains
and beneficial widespread rain to the lower elevations. Snow amounts
will vary greatly depending on the eventual path of this system, but
amounts of up to a foot for the higher peaks, and even up to 2 feet
for the peaks of the Wets and Sangres, are possible.  The heaviest
precipitation with this storm will occur from late Tuesday evening
into Wednesday midday, and travel will likely become hazardous
across the mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday. The morning
commute Wed morning along I-25 corridor may also become a challenge.
In addition, look for brisk N-NE winds of 25-35 mph Tue night and
Wed. Also, with increased CAPE across the plains Tue aftn and eve,
included the mention of thunder.

Max temps through Thu still look like they will hover in the 50s to
lower 60s across the plains, with Wed being the coldest day. At the
height of the storm, snow levels will likely drop to around 6000

Thursday night through Sunday...The system slowly exits the region
Thu, then the next system barrels in starting late Thu night. EC and
GFS models agree on dropping the system down into the Four Corners
region, but movement and placement beyond that is up for grabs.
There is a high probability this next system will provide another
healthy shot of moisture for the forecast area, but will not devote
too much time on the details just yet. Extended procedure indicates
the brunt of the activity will occur Fri and Sat, with the system
exiting the region on Sun. High temps are expected to remain in
the 50s. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

VFR to MVFR CIGS will slowly break through the evening...with TAF
sites remaining VFR overnight.  There will be the potential for some
patchy fog tonight...especially at KALS...but probability looks low
at this point.  If it does occur, there will be the potential for
brief IFR-LIFR conditions around sunrise.   Gusty north winds 15 to
25 kts this afternoon will gradually diminish this evening by 01-02z
...with light winds becoming southeast around 15 kts for KCOS and
KPUB and south to southwest 10-15 kts at KALS. -KT




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