Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 230512
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ACTIVE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT TERM DATA SUGGEST THAT ONGOING STORM
ACTIVITY...SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE AT TIMES...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY
DECREASES AROUND MIDNIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA.

THEN...FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PROJECT THAT MORE
TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
DISTRICT AS BASICALLY DRIER ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. ISOLATED PRIMARILY LATER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS AND SELECTED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE LATER SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVE WX IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY. AREA WILL BE UNDER A RATHER UNIQUE WX PATTERN AS DEEP
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL COVER THE FCST AREA. THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS
AS AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AZ EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE DAKOTAS. AREAS JUST EAST OF THIS AXIS...INCLUDING SE
CO...WILL BE UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO
MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER. TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE M/U80S WILE 70S WILL BE OVER THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP WILL BE
TERRAIN FORCED AND MAINLY OVER THE SW MTNS.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE WX WILL BECOME MORE
ACTIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ABOUT
A DAY QUICKER WITH A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WHILE THE EC
IS SLOWER. WE WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MTNS
STARTING LATER SAT WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHAT EXTENT THIS TROUGH WILL PLAY ON
OUR WX. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE
C MTN AREA...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCOS...KALS...AND KPUB TROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL EAST OF KCOS AND KPUB. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR KCOS AND KPUB OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR KPUB DURING THE
MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE AFTERNOON. KALS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH
TUESDAY. ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MTS AND SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THREAT LOOKS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KT



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