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000
FXUS63 KSGF 012342
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms
have developed over central and east central Missouri this
afternoon in advance of an upper level short wave. This activity
is expected to continue to move southward through the remainder of
the afternoon before dissipating around sunset.

The mild August temperatures are expected to continue through the
weekend as an upper level ridge remains ensconced over the
Rockies and we remain in northwest flow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

By Sunday night...a short wave approaching the West Coast will
begin to flatten out the ridge which will push the upper level
trough currently over the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio
Valley. This will bring a warming trend to the region that will
return us to near normal August temperatures by Tuesday.

As this short wave moves up and over the ridge and dives
southward...a surface front will form in the lee of the Rockies on
Tuesday which will begin to affect our weather on Wednesday. Rain
chances will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon. Have chance
PoPs going in the forecast through Friday. Right now...expect
coverage to be scattered with the entire area getting somewhere
between one-quarter to one-half inch of rain through that period.
Temperatures should remain seasonal through the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Isolated showers/thunderstorms over
the region are expected to dissipate over the next hour or two and
don`t expect them to affect any lasting impact at any of the taf
sites. KSGF is the closest to existing showers.

Some areas of fog are expected to develop again tonight
toward the 08z-10z time frame. It is a little drier today and KJLN
and KSGF so am not expecting fog to be as widespread or dense.
KBBG still has dew points in the low 60s so with nighttime cooling
think this site will have the best chance for ifr cat fog.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...DSA