Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 312358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
658 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

The convection that developed over the area this morning has
weakened and dissipated this afternoon as the area is now between
to upper level shortwave troughs. Subsidence behind the first wave
along with a drier mid level air mas have resulted in the
convection weakening.

Mid level moisture is now starting to increase from the west
ahead of the second wave which is now located across south central
Kansas early this afternoon. Storms are expected to redevelop
across northeastern Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri late this
afternoon into this evening and then spread east into tonight.
Deep layer shear over all is on the weak side, but will increase
slightly across far southwestern Missouri by early this evening.
Theta-E difference have increased to around 25-30K this afternoon
as MLCAPE values are around 1000 J/kg, mainly across southwestern
Missouri. Given the marginal instability and weak shear not
expecting widespread severe weather, but a few strong to
marginally severe storms will be possible later this afternoon
into this evening, especially across far southwestern Missouri
where the better deep layer shear and instability will be in
place. The main hazards will be hail up to the size of quarters
and wind gusts to around 60mph given the Theta-E differences.
Coverage is these storms will be scattered in nature, but there is
a small chances that some training of storms could occur
resulting in locally heavy rainfall. This activity will track east
across the area and will end from west to east this evening into
the overnight hours.

An upper level low currently over the Northern Plains will slowly
track east tonight into Wednesday and will send a surface boundary
south. The front will move period will occur late this into the
area and stall somewhere over or near the area. As a result a few
scattered storms will be possible late tonight into Wednesday near
the front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

An upper level low currently across Texas will not move much to
the east through much of the week. It will finally get kick off to
the east early this weekend.

As the upper level low remains to the southwest of the area,
energy from the low will track north at times resulting in chances
for showers and thunderstorms at times off and on through out much
of the week. The best chances will generally be along and south of
the stalled front that will be somewhere over or near the area.
Therefore, southern Missouri will see the better chances for
convection across the area. The convection will not be off and on
at times so each day will not be complete washouts, but there
will be the potential for scattered storm development each day.

The overall severe, risk will be low, as deep layer shear will be
weak as the low will be well to the south of the area. Also, the
front is expected to keep temperatures cooler, and therefore
instability should not be overly strong either.

Another upper level trough will kick out of the northwestern U.S.
and dive south into the region late this week into early in the
weekend. This low will phase with the upper level low over Texas
and finally kick it off to the east. Coverage in shower and storms
will increase with the passage of the trough. Deep layer shear
will increase some with the passage of the trough, so if enough
instability can develop some strong storm could be possible on
Saturday. A dry period will then occur late this weekend into
early next week behind the trough and upper level ridge will start
to build into the plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

The Ozarks region will see a rather active period of showers and
storms in the vicinity of the region terminals through Wednesday
afternoon. A front is expected to stall across the region and
bring the potential for periods of showers and storms with impacts
to visibilities and ceilings as storms affect local aerodromes.
Ceilings should remain VFR through tonight with some MVFR broken
ceilings developing around sunrise. Ceilings will improve towards
midday however for most areas.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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