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000
FXUS63 KSGF 241131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface high pressure building into the area is giving us a brief
reprieve from the heat/humidity of the past few days. On the heels
of north/northeast winds, dewpoints are steadily dropping across
the area. Aside from a few patches of stratocumulus, most
locations at this hour are clear with temperatures ranging from
the middle 60s to lower 70s. There has been some localized fog in
the Branson area this morning, and until dry air advection takes
hold, this fog will persist.

Today and tonight will be rather pleasant across the region as the
aforementioned surface high pressure dominates our weather regime.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm with comfortable humidity
levels. Highs will be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast. High pressure aloft will quickly spread back into the
area tomorrow and remain in place through Saturday. This will
result in a return to hot temperatures and increasing humidity
levels. Temperatures will be at or just above average Friday, and
decidedly above average on Saturday. In fact, Saturday`s
conditions will rival what we experienced this past Tuesday with
highs well into the 90s and heat index values in the 100 to 105
range. Will have to keep an eye on the need for a heat advisory on
Saturday.

By Saturday night into Sunday, the upper level pattern will
amplify with a strong trough moving into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region. This will send a cold front through the area
and bring a chance for showers and storms. Timing of the front
isn`t ideal, but there should be enough lift and instability to
support some scattered shower and storm activity along the front.
A return to well below average temperatures (by about 10 degrees)
is in store for the region for the first half of next week.
Dewpoints will fall well into the 50s, possibly even the 40s, so
humidity/heat index will be of no concern. Will need to monitor
the storm track during the middle of next week given northwest
flow aloft. We will be prone to a few shortwave passages. Trust is
details at this point is on the low side, though the potential for
intermittent rain chances exists.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Other than a very brief period of MVFR cigs this morning at BBG,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours area-wide. Winds
will be east northeast for much of the day today, becoming
southeasterly this evening/tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell