519
FXUS63 KSGF 140540
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms chances this afternoon and again
  Monday afternoon will diminish quickly by evening. Heavy
  rainfall may lead to ponding and even isolated flash flooding.

- Active summertime pattern continues next week with daily
  afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances as temperatures
  climb back to around 90. This is still a few degrees below
  normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Satellite this afternoon continues to show the fetch of moisture
being funneled between upper level highs centered over the desert
southwest and the Gulf coast. At the surface a meandering front
extended east of I35 across Oklahoma and Kansas then east a bit
south of I-70.  The 12z SGF sounding highlighted a very moist
airmass with a 1.97 precipital water with CAMS depicting MUCAPES
of 500-1000 joules...though instability was a bit higher at
1500 joules closer to the frontal boundary.

The front is expected to drift southward toward I-44 this evening
and then drift back northward into central MO tonight.  With
moisture convergence leading to the added instability along the
front, the potential exists for training convection and flooding.
Another feature is a remnant MCV south of Branson drifting northeast
which may increase shower chances over the SE half of the forecast
area. Otherwise widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will be possible. The combined activity will diminish with the
loss of heating.

The pattern changes little on Monday as the frontal boundary
over MO further loses connection to the progressive northern
stream then turns southward on the edge of the moisture axis.
Low level flow remains weak leading to diminished focus thus
anticipate only widely scattered showers with a bit greater
chance closer to the front. Overall chance for impactful weather
looks to be limited.

Cloud cover that kept temperatures down today will thin leading to
highs back in the middle 80s Monday. This is well below
seasonal highs in the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The active northern stream looks to remain across the northern tier
of the country leaving a broad pair of upper highs over the SW
and SE. Deterministic models are suggestive that the upper level weakness
across easter Texas into SW Missouri will become absorbed by
the SE high as it expands westward midweek. However little daily
change will be noted as convection forms along the periphery of
the high. Temperatures will slowly climb back toward normals in
the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Patchy fog will form over the area in the next couple of hours
lowering visibilities and bringing ceilings down into MVFR/IFR
levels. The thicker fog will form more towards central Missouri
tonight. Fog will dissipate around sunrise and VFR will return
with light easterly winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Soria