Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 302251

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
551 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Upper level high is centered over the desert southwest while a
trough is traversing the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon.
At the surface...a weak front extends from southeast Missouri into
northwest Arkansas and into western Oklahoma. A weak impulse
traveling through the upper level flow is interacting with the
front to produce an area of thunderstorms over northeastern

Expect thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the front this
afternoon and continue to around sundown. Models are continuing to
hint at the possibility of an MCS developing over the Central
Plains overnight and moving into the area towards morning. Will
need to continue to monitor this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

The upper level pattern pendulum looks to be swinging back the
other way next week. A series of short waves along the US-Canadian
border will allow the western high to once again build into the
Northern Plains and then into the Great Lakes Region by Tuesday.
In addition...the upper level high will expand eastward back into
the Southern Plains by mid week.

At the surface...the front that is draped across the region will
begin moving northward as a warm front. This will keep a mention
of at least least isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through
at least Tuesday.

As high pressure both at the surface and aloft build back into the
area...this means a return to the hot and humid conditions of a
couple of weeks ago. While temperatures will remain near seasonal
levels...the added soil moisture from last week`s rains will
increase humidity levels across the region. Right now...heat index
values will be on the increase Monday. Still some uncertainty for
heat on Monday with clouds/rain chances in the area. Heat index
values will reach a peak in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame with most
areas above 100 degrees and some areas will be approaching 105.

As another short wave makes its way across the Northern Plains
late in the week...the models are forecasting a surface front to
make it as far south as central Missouri by Saturday. This will
once again increase our rain chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 549 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Will need to monitor the Plains area this evening for the
potential of MCS formation...and then tracking southeast towards
the area on Sunday morning. For now will cover this potential with
prob30 group. Otherwise, the evening and first part of the
overnight look to be VFR with generally light surface wind.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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