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000
FXUS63 KSGF 011101
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
601 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Another mainly dry and mild day expected for the Missouri Ozarks
and far southeast Kansas today. There may be some patchy fog
development early this morning, especially in favored low spots.
That should easily dissipate shortly after sunrise.

The upper level low pressure that has been plaguing the eastern
third of the United States will continue the meander through the
short term. This will keep us in the NW flow and any vorticity
lobes that rotate around the low will increase cloud cover at
least briefly.

Overnight lows will remain in the lower to mid 50s across the area
(of course warmer temps under any cloud cover that moves
overhead). Daytime highs will remain in the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

The upper level low finally begins to lift north and east by
Monday. Aloft, a weak ridge will begin to build into the area,
which will cause a bit of a warming trend by early to mid week
next week ahead of our next weather system due into the region by
Wednesday/Thursday.

The globals are still agreeing that the upper level pattern will
be progressive enough to move a surface frontal boundary through
the region by late in the week. This should limit rainfall amounts
somewhat across the region and temperatures will drop off again. A
ridge will begin to build across the northern portions of the Gulf
of Mexico by early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Pilots flying in and out of the Missouri Ozarks area can expect
mostly good conditions. There is some light patchy MVFR
fog...between 3SM to 5SM this morning. Scattered to broken
ceilings around 4k feet will be coming from the east during the
day today. Winds will be light and variable to a light northwest
wind around 5 knots today. Models are hinting some better fog
potential late tonight and early Sunday morning. Have introduced
some light fog potential between 09z to 12z Sunday but confidence
is low at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Griffin