Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 211159
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)
For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.
Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.
A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.
Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.
The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.
There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Mostly MVFR ceilings are in place at
all sites north of a warm front to start the taf period and will
continue them early in the taf period with occasional
sprinkles/light rain/drizzle. Progged soundings and SREF guidance
indicate some IFR ceilings will be possible at times, particularly
at KSGF and KBBG toward 21z, but all guidance brings ceilings up
at least somewhat late in the taf period with the warm front
pulling away to the north. Deeper moisture and lower ceilings late
in the taf period looks to be just west of the taf sites over