Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 200512
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1112 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 121 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013
Another warm day is occurring across the region this afternoon as
temperatures are in the middle to upper 50s during the early
afternoon hours. Breezy and gusty southerly winds are pulling
increased moisture into the region as dewpoints have increased
into the middle 40s to around 50 degrees this afternoon.
An upper level low continues to dig south along the west coast
this afternoon and will continue to dig into Mexico tonight. An
area of high pressure and a much colder airmass has pushed south
into the northern Plains this afternoon. A surface low is located
across the central plains with a front extended from the low to
the east across northern Missouri into Illinois. The front right
now is currently stationary if not lifting a tad north this
afternoon. As the upper level trough continues to push south the
surface low the cold front will shift south later this evening into
tonight. The front will then slowly move through the forecast area
on Friday stalling just south of the area across northern Arkansas
Friday night into Saturday night.
Moisture across the region is currently shallow and all located in
the low levels. As the front shifts into the region...some
drizzle or light rain will be squeezed out of this low level
moisture both along and behind the front. Temperatures near the
freezing mark will slide south into the area near sunrise Friday
morning across the far northwestern portions of the forecast area.
The drizzle will taper off from northwest to southeast at this
time, but there could be a brief period of freezing drizzle Friday
morning across the northwestern portions of the forecast area.
This freezing drizzle will come to an end by the mid morning
hours. A light glaze of ice will be possible and there could be a
few slick spots north of highway 54 Friday morning, but all in all
do not expected widespread impacts and will just mention this
potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. As the cold air
overspreads the area with the increase in moisture spreading
north, there could also be some fog development behind the front
There will be a large range in highs from the northwest to southeast
across the area on Friday. Highs around Fort Scott Kansas will be
around 30 degrees as highs near West Plains Missouri will be near 60
degrees. There could be some light drizzle across southern Missouri
Friday afternoon and early evening, but overall a lull in the
precipitation will occur Friday afternoon.
Friday night into Saturday, the upper level low will spread to
the northeast and widespread precipitation will develop across
Oklahoma and will move into the region overnight Friday.
Temperatures will continue to range greatly across the area Friday
night into Saturday as the front will be near the southern
portions of the region. Farther north temperatures will drop below
the freezing mark Friday night and as this rainfall spreads into
the region some freezing rain will occur generally north of
Interstate-44 corridor. Saturday morning the front will begin to
lift back to the north and the freezing line will also shift north
and will push north of the area by Saturday afternoon. A period of
freezing rain will occur overnight Friday through midday Saturday.
The heaviest ice accumulation will occur north of a Pittsburg
Kansas to Osage Beach MO line where around a quarter of an inch
of ice accumulation will be possible.
Farther to the south across far southern Missouri, several rounds
of rain will occur Friday night through Saturday night. South of
Interstate 44 two to four inches of rainfall will be possible with
the heaviest falling across far south central Missouri. Will
continue the flood watch as is as this covers the areas of heavy
rainfall. Instability will also increase across far southern
Missouri as the front lifts back north into the region. Some
embedded thunderstorms will be possible in this instability and
could see some potential for a few strong storms with hail being the
main risk at this time.
As the upper level low tracks through the region Saturday night,
a band of snow will develop across northeastern Oklahoma into
northeastern Missouri. The southern edge of this snow band will
clip the far western and northern portions of the forecast area. A
strong dry slot will overspread the region and there will be a
sharp cut off in snow to the southeast. With potential of ice
accumulations around one quarter of an inch followed by the
potential for 2 to 4 inches of snow, will issue a winter storm
watch Friday night through Sunday morning generally along and
north of a Pittsburg Kansas to Osage Beach Line.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 121 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013
Snow band will lift northeast on Sunday with only minor
accumulations remaining over portions of our northern CWA in
central MO as the surface low tracks northeast into the Great
Lakes region. Clearing should start to take place Sunday night as
the main upper level trough begins to swing through the region. Cold
high pressure will then build back into the area on Monday into
Monday night with Monday night lows dipping back into the teens.
Another upper level wave will begin to dive southeast out of
British Columbia on Monday and will begin to move into the
Mississippi valley region on Wednesday. Models are bringing in
precipitation with the quick system late Wednesday into Wednesday
night so we may get some light, late Christmas snow. Colder air is
then again expected to push in behind this system on Thursday into
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1101 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013
Ceilings have lifted and thinned out a bit this evening as a weak
shortwave trough exits the region. However...infrared satellite
shows increasing clouds to our southwest as another disturbance
embedded in southwest flow aloft moves toward the region. So will
lag the onset of MVFR ceilings for a few more hours but expect by
09Z to 11Z that most sites will have at least MVFR ceilings and
maybe some light drizzle.
The cold front to our north has made some progress southward this
evening and currently is making its way across Kansas City.
Surface winds north of the front have become more perpendicular to
the front so expect some decent southward progress over the next
several hours...with a passage at Joplin around 11Z...Springfield
around 12Z. The front is expected to stall out near Branson later
today so for now will give them a west wind by around 17Z.
Later tonight...will bring in predominant light to moderate rain
after 02Z as a stronger shortwave currently over west Texas moves
over the area. Locations to the north of our airports could see a
wintry mix with this batch and we will have to watch temperature
trends closely to see if colder air seeps further south than expected.
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST THU DEC 19 2013
A strong area of low pressure will develop across the southern
plains on Saturday and will track through the region Saturday
night. Ahead of this low, copious amounts of Gulf moisture will be
pulled into southern Missouri. Meanwhile, deep lift will
overspread the region and produce periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall across areas south of Interstate 44 Friday night through
Saturday night. The heavy rain potential will push east of the
area overnight Saturday as a dry slot overspreads the region from
Will continue the flood watch for the areas along and south of a
Vienna to Springfield to Anderson line. The watch is in effect
from Friday evening through Saturday evening. We are expecting storm
total rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches with localized areas
around 4 inches east of a Salem to Bull Shoals Lake line.
MO...FLOOD WATCH from Friday evening through Saturday evening FOR
WINTER STORM WATCH from late Friday night through late Saturday
night FOR MOZ055-056-066>069-077-078.
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH from late Friday night through late Saturday
night FOR KSZ073-097.