Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 300430
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.AVIATION...
A decaying complex of showers and a few thunderstorms was moving
slowly southward late this evening. This activity is in the
vicinity of the TXK/ELD terminals so prevailed this for a few
hours with a small tempo group to cover any -tsra/mvfr ceiling
and/or vsby restriction due to the rain. Otherwise...vfr
conditions should prevail for the remainder of the night with the
complex continuing to weaken in coverage and intensity.

Latest run of 00z progs suggest there may be more convection
around with peak heating than what was earlier suggested. For this
reason...have added VCTS to most terminals except for the
TYR/GGG/LFK terminals during the late afternoon hours continuing
through 31/02z. Otherwise...very little changes were made with
this taf set from the previous one.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1018 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

UPDATE...
Small changes to pops and low due to rainfall

DISCUSSION...
A rain cooled 68 in Idabel OK and 71 in DeQueen AR are making for
a nice evening...but these air temps may edge back up overnight.
No other changes to lows anywhere else at this time. We have
dropped the chance pop line a little farther South for this
evening and outflow is moving toward southern Bowie county now. So
far nothing new on the outflow but perhaps over the next hour or
two. The HRRR and the NAM hint at a need for more pop over East TX
by daybreak after a look a the GFS and obs again we may tweak
whats left around midnight if there is anything left at that time.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  93  76  96 /  20  40  20  20
MLU  75  93  75  95 /  20  40  20  30
DEQ  70  92  73  94 /  40  40  20  30
TXK  70  94  76  95 /  40  40  20  30
ELD  74  92  74  94 /  40  40  20  30
TYR  77  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  77  95  76  96 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  76  95  75  96 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/13


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