Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 121144 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
644 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12/12Z TAF PERIOD. SHOULD
SEE A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...NEAR A WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS
THAT HAS BEEN ABSORBED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FROM NE
OK/SE KS INTO SRN MO/NRN AR. ATTM...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WSW ACROSS WRN LA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
INTO PORTIONS OF E TX AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS CONVECTION AFFECTING ANY ONE TERMINAL...HAVE NOT MENTIONED
THIS FOR SHV/GGG/LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING...WITH ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THINNING
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN SKC BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VRB
WINDS 5KTS OR LESS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RIDGING HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE AREA...EVIDENT BY HEAVY GROUND
CLUTTER PATTERNS AROUND ALL AREA RADARS TONIGHT...INDICATING
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT NO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THIS PATTERN NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND LITTLE TO ANY DURG THE DAYTIME...EXCEPT FOR NEAR
WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER NORTHCENTRAL LA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BUMP UP
FROM MID 90S...TOWARDS UPPER 90S AS THICKNESS PATTERNS INCREASE
FROM WEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER AR. WITH DEWPOINTS
STILL LIKELY ABOVE 70 DEGREES...HEAT INDICES WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SINKS SOUTH INTO AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTS SLOW PASSING. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HANG
THIS FRONT UP NEARLY STNRY BY MID WEEK...AND AS PCPN WATER VALUES
RISE WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH MOISTURE LOADING IN MID/UPPER
LVLS...PRECIP MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD AT TIMES. BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP POPS AT HIGH END CHANCE FOR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED LOW LVL SHEAR INDICATED ON GFS NEAR THIS
RETURNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO COULD SEE SOME STG STORMS ALONG
WITH THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
DAYTIME HIGHS WITH INCREASED RAIN AND CLOUDS MAY REMAIN FOR THE
MOST PART...BELOW 90 DEGREES. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  74  98  75  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  97  73  97  74  93 /  20  20  10  10  20
DEQ  99  69  98  74  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  98  72  97  75  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  99  73  98  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TYR  98  74  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  98  73  97  75  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  98  73  98  74  96 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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