Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 281157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05/05/09





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