Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 280033
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
733 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, VFR with a touch of haze until sunset. Winds are
S 5-15KT and will become SW for Sunday. Aloft we are SW 15-35KTS.
MVFR stratus will meet convection from the N before daybreak with
a cold front moving in our direction bringing early widespread
shwrs/tstms from 09-13Z. The cold front will move closer but not
through until Sunday night. So expect more dvlpmt of tstms for the
p.m. hrs. Fropa will shift surface winds and not much else early
Monday. The boundary will slowly lift back North into midweek./24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 436 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
This afternoon a complex weather pattern was emerging across the
Southern Plains and Central sections of the country to the Middle
Atlantic States. An elongated surface low pressure system over
the Southern Plains and into parts of West Texas has a wavy
nearly stationary frontal boundary reaching to the East across
Oklahoma and into the Ohio Valley, with a cold front trailing
Southwest across the Pan Handle of Texas and into Northeast New
Mexico and the Southern Rockies, while a dry line trailed from
the surface low into the Big Bend Region of West Texas. Gulf
moisture was feeding into the Southern and Central sections of the
country with a tight pressure gradient between the surface low and
surface high pressure across the Northern Gulf of Mexico and
Southwest Atlantic Coast off Florida. Added to this mix will be
disturbances rounding the base of an upper trough of low pressure
dropping South across the Rockies and into the Four Corners
Region, and spreading across the surface boundaries providing
added lift overnight and into Sunday, that will provide a chance
of strong to severe thunderstorms. The cold front will overtake
the dryline as it shifts Southeast overnight. The upper low and
associated trailing trough of low pressure will nudge the cold
front into parts of the Four State Region late tonight and into
Sunday. Expecting damaging winds and large hail as the main
threats with an isolated tornado possible. The cold front will be
slow to move across our area with the upper low moving into the
Northern sections of the country and into the Upper Mid-West.
The chance for severe weather will wane in the early morning
Sunday but by afternoon with heating and the nearness of the
remaining frontal boundary could see a return chance of
severe weather in to the afternoon and evening but with mainly
along and South of Interstate 20. By early Monday the cold front
will slow and become nearly stationary into the day and evening
keeping rain chances possible. For Tuesday the forecast area will
be squeezed between the return of the frontal boundary back
Northeast as a warm front and the approach of another upper level
trough of low pressure amplifying from the Upper Mid-West into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. For the rest of the work week an
unsettled weather pattern will prevail thanks to a dirty ridge of
high pressure to the West and a broad upper trough of low pressure
across the Central and Eastern sections of the country.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  87  69  81 /  30  40  60  40
MLU  74  89  70  81 /  20  30  60  60
DEQ  72  82  61  85 /  80  40  40  10
TXK  73  83  65  83 /  60  40  60  20
ELD  74  84  65  81 /  50  40  60  40
TYR  75  86  68  82 /  40  40  60  30
GGG  75  85  68  81 /  30  40  60  30
LFK  77  91  72  81 /  10  30  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/99/99


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