Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
FXUS64 KSHV 201652
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1052 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017
To bump highs with abundant sunshine to start the day.
We have gone up a category on many high temps with a good start
of warming with fair skies and lots of sunshine. Partly cloudy
skies will soon resume. Top of the hour temperatures are a range
of 60s which will tack on 10 from 10am today with the Southwest
wind sharing the warmth area wide. SW flow is deep, but our 1000
foot winds are holding around 15kts on the KSHV VAD. We should
stay below lake criteria, but some 20mph plus gusts are likely.
We have updated with new stronger 12z nam. HRRR shows a bumpy
evening and overnight over our SE Parishes foremost. SPC has an
enhanced area on their update for the delta near Alexandria, Jena
and Columbia on Eastward into SW MS. /24/
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/
For the 20/12z TAFs, ceilings will be quite variable across the
area at the start of the period, but most locations, with the
exception of Northeast Texas, should experience MVFR/IFR flight
conditions. Ceilings should lift and scatter through remainder of
the morning, and VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites by
noon. More low clouds and MVFR ceilings are likely after 21/03z as
moist low-level southerly flow persists. Scattered convection is
expected to develop across Louisiana and East Texas tonight
through the end of the period. There is some question how far to
the northwest the convection will be, but most of the models keep
showers and thunderstorms mainly southeast of a KLFK-KMLU line.
Some of the convection could be strong to severe at times.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/
Two concerns for this morning is patchy fog and the potential for
severe weather later today. Patchy fog is possible across north
Louisiana and east Texas through 10 AM. At this time southerly
winds have remained 5 to 10 kts through the early morning hours
and will continue through the afternoon. IR imagery shows high
clouds moving in from the west which has kept fog from forming
this morning, but if these clouds begin to scattered we could see
fog develop during the morning commute in areas that received
rain on Thursday. Todays temperatures will be in the low to mid
70s across the four state region which is a warmup from
temperatures in the 60s on Thursday.
A shortwave trough located near northern New Mexico will move
into TX and the lower MS Valley bringing a chance for severe
thunderstorms tonight. The southerly/southwesterly low level jet
of 40 to 50 kts along with daytime heating could support discrete
super cells, isolated tornadoes and hail. Low level shear will be
near 5 to 15 kts today along with dewpoints in the mid to upper
50s. The key factor for todays severe weather is will a warm front
to our south which is forecast to move north into our area. GFS
sounding indicates 0 to 3 km lapse rate between 7 to 8 C/km,
along with CAPE of 350 to 500 J/.
Saturday, rain will continue along with a continued threat of
severe weather mainly in the form of hail with isolated tornadoes
possible in discrete cells during the evening. The potential
severe weather threat could possibly increase if a surface low
develops near the exit region of the low level jet near our area.
This along with steep lapse rates and cold mid-level temperatures
above a moist surface layer with vertical shear could help to
ventilate thunderstorms. Sunday, conditions forecast to improve
from west to east through 18Z, with high temperatures in the mid
60s. The next chance for rain will be late Wednesday or early
Thursday when another trough approaches from the west.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 54 72 50 / 10 30 40 50
MLU 75 56 73 53 / 10 40 50 60
DEQ 71 47 70 46 / 10 20 30 50
TXK 73 52 71 49 / 10 30 30 50
ELD 73 53 71 50 / 10 20 40 60
TYR 75 53 71 49 / 10 30 40 40
GGG 76 54 71 49 / 10 30 40 40
LFK 78 56 74 51 / 10 40 50 40