Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 261110
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
610 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24
hours. The winds will become southwest late this morning with
gusts to around 25 knots, and then become light by 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The surface map this morning indicates a warm front along a Del
Rio to College Station line. This front will move quickly north
along with a low level moist field(dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s) through the morning hours. Most of West Central Texas will be
in the warm sector this afternoon as surface pressure falls
commence due to some large scale ascent spreading east across the
Southern Plains. A dryline will move quickly east east across West
Central Texas and be located along a Brownwood to Junction line
by 21Z. An isolated strong storm or two may be possible across the
Northwest Hill Country and eastern Heartland through early
evening, along and ahead of the dryline. The main problem will be
west of the dryline, due to mainly fire weather concerns. See fire
weather discus(time period) below. Another warm day with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. For tonight, looks like quiet weather with
lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

After a weak cold front Monday, southeast winds and low level
moisture return Monday night...ahead of an intense upper level low
moving into the 4 corners region. SPC Day 3 severe weather
outlook has West Central Texas in an enhanced potential for severe
weather: including large hail, damaging winds, and even tornados.
This looks good given strong southeast low level flow and
increasing instability as the upper low moves in toward the
Panhandle. GFS MUCAPES approach 3000 J/KG Tuesday. A surface
trough moves slowly east across the region Tuesday night, pushing
east of the region midday Wednesday. Slow eastward movement of the
surface trough Tuesday night could bring locally heavy
rainfall/flooding. Isolated wraparound light showers are possible
Wednesday night.

Dry conditions expected Thursday and Friday in upper level
ridging, however the potential for showers and thunderstorms
return Saturday with approach of another upper low. The EC and GFS
models diverge in the position of the upper low: with the EC over
N. New Mexico, while the GFS digs the upper low farther south
toward El Paso. Both models bring a chance of rain, although the
GFS would certainly bring stronger upper level divergence and
lift.

FIRE WEATHER...

Expect near critical fire weather conditions along and west of an
Abilene to San Angelo to Sonora line this afternoon and early
evening due to gusty west to southwest winds and relative humidity
values less than 20 percent. Have issued a SPS for the fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  52  80  56 /   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  89  52  86  60 /   0   0   0   5
Junction  87  54  88  60 /   5  10   5  10
Brownwood  88  52  81  58 /   5  10   0  10
Sweetwater  84  51  79  55 /   0   0   0   5
Ozona       86  51  85  60 /   0   5   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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