Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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377
FXUS64 KSJT 091127
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016



.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours. West to Northwest winds of 5 to 12 KTS
will become south 3 to 6 KTS overnight as surface high
pressure moves east.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A surface high pressure ridge over the region will move east
tonight. This will allow west to northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph to
become light tonight. With full sun and a dry atmosphere, highs in
the upper 60s to around 70 are expected today. Good radiational
cooling conditions will be present tonight with light winds, clear
skies, and a very dry atmosphere. Went 2-3 degrees lower than GFS
MOS guidance.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Dry and mild weather will continue throughout the next week.

Persistent upper level troughing across the eastern U. S. will
keep northwest flow over our area through the end of the week.
Over the weekend, medium range guidance suggests a decent upper
level storm will move across the Central Plains. However, the
timing of exactly when this system moves across the CONUS is still
in question.

At the surface, southwest winds and dry air will combine for
temperatures in the 70s Wednesday. A shortwave moving through the
Great Lakes region will send a cold front into the area Thursday,
likely cooling temperatures down into the 60s for highs north of
the I-20 corridor. Temperatures should recover some on Friday.
Another somewhat stronger cold front will move into the area late
Friday night. However, highs will still warm into the 70s for
southern areas, with mainly 60s for the areas north of a Sterling
City to Brownwood line. As the next upper level system expected
to move into the Central Plains early next week moves into the
Rocky Mountain region, pressure falls from just east of the Rocky
Mountains into the Central Plains will result in strong southerly
flow and moisture return into the area. Although a trailing trough
axis will move across the area, it is not expected to result in
precipitation chances until it interacts with richer moisture to
our east, so have left the forecast dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue into the weekend
with a combination of very dry air and vegetation, and above
normal daytime temperatures. Fire conditions will be particularly
elevated Wednesday afternoon with gusty southwest winds. Wind
speeds, however, are not expected to reach critical values. Low
level moisture is expected to increase this weekend. The increased
low level moisture should keep conditions from becoming critical
for fire weather Sunday, despite breezy south winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  36  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  72  34  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  69  32  75  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04



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