Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 232014
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
314 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Satellite imagery shows the cloud coverage has begun to diminish
across the area. Temperatures have responded to the decrease in
cloud coverage by climbing into the upper 80s in areas where the
sun has broken out. A weak MCV south of the I-10 corridor has
allowed for the development of showers and thunderstorms across
Kimble and Mason county this afternoon. Across the rest of the
area, a weakening ridge over far West Texas will continue to
slowly slide west and continue to flatten out, allowing for
northwest flow to persist across the region. With this northwest
flow aloft and a weak cold front over the southern Big Country,
numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along that
boundary this afternoon. Both the Texas Tech WRF and the HRRR show
large clusters of thunderstorms across the area late this
afternoon. Severe weather is not expected with these storms. Main
hazards with the stronger storms will be brief heavy downpours
leading to minor flash flooding and dangerous lightning. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

(Thursday)

Breaks in the clouds during the afternoon will allow for increasing
instability across the area tomorrow. HI-RES models indicate CAPE
values climbing above 1000 J/KG with little convective inhibition.
This instability and lack of capping inversion will allow for
scattered thunderstorms to develop along leftover outflow boundaries
from previous convection and the weak surface front positioned over
the Concho Valley. Strong thunderstorm winds and dangerous lightning
will be the main hazards with the stronger storms. Highs will be in
the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

A weak upper level shortwave will approach the area from the west
early Friday. Although this feature will pass north of the
region, it will couple with abundant moisture and likely result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms. By Friday night/Saturday,
all eyes will turn to tropical cyclone Harvey. It is expected to
remain east of the region, but the westward extent of its rain
shield will likely impact the area, especially southeastern
portions of the forecast area. Harvey is progged to slowly start
moving back to the east by Sunday and into early next week,
taking any rain with it. Overall, Harvey will not have too big of
an impact on west central Texas, however, continue to pay close
attention to the forecast over the next several days, as any
shift in the track of Harvey will affect our forecast.

Given the precip chances and increased cloud cover, temps will be
held down across the area. Mostly mid 80s are expected through
Sunday, with some warming early next week (upper 80s/lower 90s) as
Harvey moves east, taking the clouds and rain with it. Overnight
lows will generally be in the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  84  69  86 /  20  40  30  40
San Angelo  70  85  70  87 /  30  30  30  40
Junction  71  86  71  88 /  30  40  30  40
Brownwood  71  85  70  85 /  40  40  30  40
Sweetwater  70  84  69  84 /  20  30  30  40
Ozona       71  85  70  86 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

40/98



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