Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 271122
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
621 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014
VFR expected for the next 24 hours, with no significant aviation
concerns. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible mainly
east of a Brady to San Saba line...including KJCT airport.
However...will not include thunder or CB in the TAFS at this time
due to very limited coverage of storms. Winds should remain out of
the southeast at less than 20 kts.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/
(Today and Tonight)
An upper level ridge continues to sit across northern Mexico into
Texas and much of the Southeastern U.S. today. A weak tropical
upper-level low continues to drift westward just off the central
Texas coast, with a relatively strong trough over Utah into
western Arizona. West Central Texas will remain under the
influence of the ridge for one more day with hot temperatures in
the upper 90s. Most of the area should remain dry, although a few
afternoon showers will be possible this afternoon and evening as
moisture continues to increase over the area. The best chance of
showers will be across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland
from near Junction to San Saba. Will also see a slight chance of
rain for western areas late tonight as the upper trough to the
west begins to approach the area.
(Thursday through Tuesday)
A potent shortwave trough will be crossing the CO Rockies early
Thursday, further dampening the ridge over the southern CONUS.
As this feature approaches, synoptic scale ascent will overspread
the region, cooling and moistening the middle troposphere.
Relatively quiet weather conditions are expected Thursday morning,
but with temperatures warming into the mid/upper 90s, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface trough from the Permian Basin northeast into western OK.
While this convection is forecast to be west of the CWA initially,
westerly steering flow will advect this activity into the Big
Country and western Concho Valley during the late afternoon and
evening hours. This convection is expected to persist into the
overnight hours, with the best rain chances falling north of an
Ozona to Brownwood line.
The aforementioned shortwave trough will be over the Central
Plains by Friday morning, continuing its slow trek to the east.
The surface trough in the vicinity, coupled with abundant moisture
and a weakness in the upper-level ridge, will support additional
showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to remain
largely unorganized, existing primarily as ordinary thunderstorms.
However, there could be just enough deep layer shear to support
limited multi-cellular convection with additional updrafts forming
on the downshear flank of outflow boundaries. Temperatures on
Friday are forecast to be slightly cooler, owing to the increased
cloud cover and scattered precipitation. Expect highs generally in
the lower 90s.
Precipitation is expected to end from west to east on Saturday as
the upper-level trough moves off to the east. The decrease in
atmospheric moisture will yield mostly sunny skies during the
afternoon and evening with early morning low clouds near I-10 for
much of the remainder of the forecast. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is
anticipated early next week. This will result in increasing
southerly winds and will keep precipitation chances in check.
Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly below normal
on Saturday but will begin creep back into the mid 90s by early
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 96 75 95 74 93 / 10 10 20 30 40
San Angelo 96 73 96 73 93 / 10 10 20 20 30
Junction 96 72 96 75 92 / 20 10 20 20 30