Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 221150

548 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

/12Z TAFS/
Expect widespread stratus across West Central Texas though much of
today, with MVFR CIGS at the terminals. A few hours of IFR CIGS
are expected at KSOA terminal. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will develop this morning as a strong upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Not confident enough to mention
thunder at the terminals due to low confidence on duration. There
may be an hour or two of thunderstorms, especially at the KABI and
KBBD terminals. Expect mainly VFR conditions and improving weather
after 23Z. Also, LLWS is expected through 15Z due to south winds
of 30 to 40 knots at 2000 feet.



(Today and Tonight)

The WV satellite imagery was showing a strong southern stream trough
over northern Mexico with mid to upper level ascent moving into
western Texas. The 00Z upper air analysis at 500 MB indicated 110
meter height falls at FLG associated with this system. Showers and
thunderstorms were developing across far northern Texas due to low
level jet of 30 to 40 knots and WAA. Some of the storms have been
over the northern Big Country during the past few hours.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today across West Central
Texas as the strong upper level trough moves across Texas during the
next 24 hours. The combination of strong mid to upper level forcing
and low level southerly flow advecting modified gulf
moisture(dewpoints in the lower 60s) will lead to widespread
convection. A few storms may be severe due to moderate instability
and 0-6KM bulk shear values of 35 to 45 knots. The main hazards will
be large hail and damaging winds. Also, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible with amounts of 1 to 2 inches. The showers and storms
will decrease in coverage across the western half of the area this
afternoon as drier air is advected in along with some subsidence
behind the upper level trough axis.

For tonight, most of the upper level energy will east of the area
with more widespread convection over central and southern Texas.
Scattered thunderstorms are still possible this evening across the
Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. Otherwise, going with a dry

(Sunday through Friday)

A series of cold fronts will result in near, to slightly below
normal temperatures through much of the week. A Pacific
front/dryline will move through the area Sunday morning, resulting
in gusty west winds. An upper level trough will also swing across
the Plains on Sunday, sending a cold front through West Central
Texas Sunday afternoon. Cooler temperatures are forecast Monday
morning, with most locations dropping into the 30s, and day time
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The next upper level trough
will swing across the Plains Monday night/Tuesday, sending a cold
front through the area Tuesday morning. Highs Tuesday through
Thursday will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with overnight lows in
the 30s. Another cold front will swing through the area Friday,
continuing the slightly below normal temperatures. No rain is
forecast from Sunday through next weekend.


Abilene  69  49  71  38  59 /  90  10   0   5   0
San Angelo  71  48  75  38  61 /  80  10   0   5   0
Junction  71  48  76  37  63 /  80  20   0   0   0




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