Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 240456 AAB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1156 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.
Models indicate that overnight boundary layer RH will increase to
higher levels than in previous nights. Patchy low cloud
development looks possible early Sunday morning mainly just
southeast of our area over the Hill Country. Carrying a Tempo
scattered low cloud layer at KJCT 12Z-15Z. Clear skies are
expected across the rest of our area overnight into Sunday
morning. A VFR-based diurnal cumulus field is expected to develop
by midday. Southeast winds will veer to south overnight. South
winds on Sunday morning will increase to 7-11 knots by mid to late
morning, backing to the southeast during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.
Models indicate that overnight boundary layer RH will increase to
higher levels than in previous nights. Patchy low cloud
development looks possible early Sunday morning mainly just
southeast of our area over the Hill Country. Carrying a Tempo
scattered low cloud layer at KJCT 12Z-15Z. Clear skies are
expected across the rest of our area tonight into Sunday morning.
A VFR-based diurnal cumulus field is expected to develop by
midday. Southeast winds will decrease through late this evening
and veer to the south overnight. South winds on Sunday morning
will increase to 7-11 knots by mid to late morning, backing to
the southeast during the afternoon.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Very little change to the forecast through Sunday. The upper ridge
will remain the dominant weather feature the next 24 hours, with dry
and hot conditions expected again on Sunday. Fair weather cumulus
across the area this afternoon will dissipate after sunset, then
redevelop again during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Lows tonight
will be in the mid and upper 70s, with highs Sunday between 99 and
101 degrees.

24

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night-Monday)

One more hot day on Monday before afternoon highs cool into the
lower to mid 90s later in the week and a chance for rain returns
to West Central Texas. There is a slight chance for isolated
afternoon thunderstorms Monday as low level moisture increases
across the area just ahead of the next weather system.

(Tuesday through Wednesday)

As a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) low moves into the
area by Tuesday, a chance of showers and thunderstorms return to
the area both Tuesday and Wednesday. At 20Z, this TUTT low was
located in the vicinity of Florida. This upper low should reach
West Central Texas by Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves west
towards Texas beneath the upper high to its north. The ECMWF and
GFS models were in close agreement.

Precipitable water values are expected to increase from
1.6 to 1.9 inches across the region by Tuesday. Daytime heating
and increasing tropical moisture should lead to the development
showers and thunderstorms across the area both Tuesday and
Wednesday. With increasing moisture and cloudiness, look for
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s both days.

(Thursday through Saturday)

By Thursday into next Saturday, weak upper high pressure takes
control, causing afternoon highs to climb into the mid 90s and
ending the chance for rain.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77 100  76  98 /   0   5   5  20
San Angelo  76 100  77  98 /   0   5   5  20
Junction  75  99  76  98 /   0   5   5  20

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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