Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 050545 AAD
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1145 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Heaviest precipitation late this evening is occurring across
southeast counties where light to moderate freezing rain and sleet
continues. Will maintain high POPs across this area overnight but
POPs were decreased elsewhere for the rest of the night as
precipitation winds down. Areas north and west of a Brownwood to
Ozona line will see some light snow/sleet for a few more hours.
Little if any additional accumulation is expected. Areas south and
east of a Brownwood to Junction line will see freezing rain and
sleet continue through 3 AM, with additional light sleet and ice
accumulations possible. Will keep the Winter Weather Advisory
intact for now as temperatures remain below freezing overnight and
roads across the area remain slick and hazardous.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Most of the precipitation has shifted to southeast of a line
from Brownwood to Eden to Fort Mckavett. Light freezing rain and
sleet will continue at KBBD and KJCT for a couple of hours, before
tapering off. Patchy light precipitation is possible at the other
TAF sites into the overnight hours. Cloud ceilings have climbed
into the MVFR range and little change is expected overnight. As
the strong upper level disturbance departs the area on Thursday,
expect skies during the morning with a return to VFR conditions.
Gusty north winds overnight will diminish during the day
Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015/

UPDATE...
Included isolated thunder this evening and adjusted the Winter
Weather Advisory for timing across southern counties.

DISCUSSION...
Precipitation has overspread much of the area this evening, with
even a few lightning strikes showing up in some of the heavier
precip bands. A mix of sleet and snow is currently affecting the
Big Country, with freezing rain and sleet affecting all but
extreme southeast counties. Temperatures across far southern
counties along the I-10 corridor are already near or at the
freezing mark early this evening and the Winter Weather Advisory
for this area was started early this evening rather than at
midnight. Also included isolated thunder in the forecast through
the evening hours. No other changes were made to the forecast at
this time. The Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for all
of West Central Texas until 6 AM Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The primary aviation hazard is icing, with mixed winter
precipitation. Ice could accumulate on airport runways and
on planes.

Mixed winter precipitation will overspread west central Texas
this evening and tonight, and then exit southeastern parts of
the area by daybreak Thursday. Cannot rule out the possibility
of brief thunderstorms with the precipitation this evening
and early tonight, and will amend for this as needed. Between
6 PM and 9 PM, the precipitation type will be freezing rain and
sleet across central and northern parts of the area, and rain mixed
with sleet farther south. After 9 PM, a mix of sleet and snow is
expected across the area along/north of Interstate 20 (including
KABI), with freezing rain and sleet farther south at KSJT and
KBBD. Rain will transition to freezing rain at KSOA and KJCT.
Later tonight (after Midnight), the precipitation may change to
snow before ending across the northern half of the area including
KABI, with a sleet/snow mix at KSJT. A mix of sleet and freezing
rain is possible at our southern terminals before the precipitation
ends.

IFR conditions are expected with the ceilings, while visibilities
will fluctuate with the precipitation. Gusty north-northeast winds
will continue through the night, with gusts to or just above 30kt
possible.

The storm system will quickly exit the area by Thursday morning.
Expect clearing skies and a return to VFR conditions, with
diminishing north to northeast winds.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...

Winter Precipitation Tonight...

Another round of winter precipitation will dominate tonight`s
weather across West Central Texas. A cold front, with gusty surface
winds from the north, will continue to push south across West
Central Texas this evening. Temperatures along and north of our
Interstate 20 corridor have fallen below the freezing mark.
Temperatures farther south will follow early this evening. Model
forecast soundings indicate freezing rain or sleet will be the
dominant precipitation types. However, with the potential for
some convection, and colder temperatures than models may be
indicating...light snow will likely join the mix mainly after midnight.
Total snow accumulations may be around 1 to 2 inches in some locations,
before this system moves east tomorrow. Our main concern for
tonight and tomorrow is icy roads, bridges, and overpasses.
Although we expect weather to end by 12Z tomorrow morning,
temperatures will likely not warm above freezing until tomorrow
afternoon. Even then, afternoon highs for most areas tomorrow will
only be in the 32 to 35 range. Ice on many surfaces will continue to be a
hazard through most of the day tomorrow.

Huber

LONG TERM...

Expect a really cold night Thursday night with clearing skies and
ice on the ground. Will see morning lows by Friday in the teens
and lower twenties. Any water on roads will freeze overnight
causing slick spots again Friday morning. Finally...we begin to
see a warmup for Friday afternoon into the weekend. Temperatures
should remain above freezing Saturday through the rest of the
seven days. May see a few rain showers Saturday evening through
early Sunday across the southeast as another weak shortwave trough
moves through. Drier air over much of the area will limit
precipitation to just the southeastern counties. Highs should warm
to the 60s and 70s for early next week.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  21  33  20  43  27 /  90   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  24  36  22  46  30 /  90   5   5   5   5
Junction  27  35  22  46  30 / 100  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.

&&

$$






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