Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 310444
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1144 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

NO CHANGE THIS CYCLE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)

A HIGH BASED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TX
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY, RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS TROUGH PRECEDES A COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH, ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LAMESA, TO
GUTHRIE, TO VERNON. THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY. THE EFFECTS OF THE
1000 J/KG MLCAPE DEPICTED BY THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ARE LIKELY A BIT
OVERDONE, GIVEN THE DEEP, RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
ASSOCIATED ENTRAINMENT WITHIN THE UPDRAFTS. NONETHELESS, IT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED ORDINARY CELLS THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 7 PM. MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH PEAK
HEATING, AS ONE HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED NORTH OF BAIRD THIS
AFTERNOON.

TRAINQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
COOLING INTO THE MID 70S. ON FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO 100 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(MAINLY AFTERNOON), ESPECIALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
AGAIN, MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS.

LONG TERM... (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)

SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. CONTINUITY AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS HAS IMPROVED TODAY
REGARDING A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THEY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PLACING MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THEY ALSO SHOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
WASHING OUT LATER THAT EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY OR
NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY/HEARTLAND. WEAK AND SLOW-MOVING
DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, POSSIBLY INCREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING, WITH A DOWN-WARD TREND EXPECTED IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AFTER SUNSET. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE NUMERICAL DATA ALSO REVEALS A
WEAK WIND FLOW PATTERN THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, WITH
PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD, THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW
MOVING, AND WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE QUALITY IN PLACE, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND RISING
UPPER-LEVEL HIEGHTS. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY END ANY RAINFALL
CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TROUGH CROSSING THE
NORTHERN CONUS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA, WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THIS WAS A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AFTERNOON`S NUMERICAL RUNS, AND GIVEN THIS IS SEVER DAYS OUT,
POPS WERE INCREASED SOME, BUT KEPT BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  75  97  74  94 /  10  20  20  30
SAN ANGELO  73 101  72  97 /   5  20  20  30
JUNCTION  72 100  72  96 /   5  30  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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