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000
FXUS62 KTBW 080900
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT FROM MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR REGION. THE GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...BUT REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN BELOW 10000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING ANY DECENT PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SPRINKLE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED SO NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. ONLY POTENTIAL
PROBLEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FOG LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE THE LOWER TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST
APPROACHING RECORD VALUES IN A FEW SPOTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
NATURE COAST.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WHICH HAS SHIELDED MUCH OF FLORIDA FROM WINTER
IN PAST FEW WEEKS WILL RETREAT SOME THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN. THE S/WV THAT SUPPRESSES THE
RIDGE WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THU BUT THIS
WILL NOT BE A CLEAN FROPA GIVEN FAR NORTH LATITUDE OF THE
WEAK/FAST MOVING UPR TROUGH. SO WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NE-E THU
INTO FRI AND DRIER AIR WILL NOT REALLY INFILTRATE CENT FL MUCH.
THERE ARE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FROPA AND
LINGERING MOISTURE AFTER...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE
NEXT SRN STREAM TROUGH ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUSLY GFS WAS
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THEY HAVE
FLIP FLOPPED ON 00Z RUNS. GFS SOLN WOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHCS ON SUN AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS. WILL SEE WHAT FUTURE
RUNS BRING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND LIGHT WIND PROVIDE A GOOD COMBINATION FOR
FOG THIS MORNING. INJECTION OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROVIDING BKN SCU
DECK ACROSS S FL AND THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD NW ACROSS SRN TAF
SITES IN NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK THIS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL THESE
AREAS. IN FACT PGD WHICH IS ALREADY SHOWING LOWER VSBYS ASSOC W/
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM IFR BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS
ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE. T-BAY AREA SITES WILL NOT SEE INFLUENCE OF
SCU DECK AND WILL HAVE HIGHEST PROBS OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE WATER W/ MORE FOG INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. DURING MIDWEEK A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...THEN COULD INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION...POSSIBLY
ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE WARM AND RATHER
HUMID WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  68  83  67 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  85  66  85  65 /   0   0  10   0
GIF  83  64  84  64 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  83  66  83  64 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  83  60  84  59 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  81  69  81  68 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER