Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 260825
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
325 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES TROUGHED DOWN INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...DOMINATED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO
REGION. SURFACE - A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER MID-WEST...HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT WATERS...AND A STALLED FRONT REACHED FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD...STRETCHING FROM THE
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS THE BAHAMA RIDGE
RESIDES ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THE AREA. THE EASTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC AS IT CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
BOARD AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY.

THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DECAY AND SAG
SOUTHWARD TAKING A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. THAT BEING SAID
THE NE AND EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. EXPECT THE FOG TO
BE LIMITED GROUND FOG BUT INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE PATCHY FOG. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND WITH WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE AIR ALOFT WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION/ IF ANY/ TO BE A FEW
SPRINKLES AT THE MOST AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL BY UP TO A FEW DEGREES.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND STARTS WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE STATE. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS OUT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WITH A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ZONAL ALOFT AS THE TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO SPEED AND TIMING. THE GFS SHOWS
A SLOWER PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
PASSAGE BY TUESDAY. WILL LEAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND NOTHING MORE WITH NOT MUCH UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT IN PLACE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COOL DOWN
BY JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR MID-WEEK...BUT THOSE VALUES WILL
LIKELY BE RIGHT AROUND WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
26/06Z-27/06Z. VFR WITH GENERALLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
TERMINALS MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON BKN VFR CIGS. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...EXCEPT VARIABLE AT TPA/PIE/SRQ IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE
THE WATERS...WITH NE WINDS VEERING TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...UNTIL
LATE MON AND TUE WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF WITH
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY WINDS. SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY MOISTENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO CONCERNS
ABOUT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE MAY RESULT
IN LIMITED GROUND FOG BUT WITH PATCHY FOG INLAND OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF LATE NIGHTS. WINDS AND ERC VALUES DO NOT REACH SIGNIFICANT
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  62  79  65 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  79  65  83  65 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  75  61  80  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  75  61  80  63 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  72  56  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  72  62  78  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE







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