Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 301907
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
307 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015



.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
REMAINS FAIRLY COMPLEX GIVEN A TROPICAL WAVE (ERIKA REMNANTS)
LIFTING OVER THE STATE FROM THE FL STRAITS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE PANHANDLE HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN. WITH THE LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE
WAVE TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW.


FOR THE FORECAST... THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW. AT THE MOMENT... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH BETTER
COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. WHILE THE
COVERAGE IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED AT THE
MOMENT... THE CONCERN IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING BANDS OF
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY OVER FLOODED RIVER BASINS OR URBAN AREAS.
GIVEN THE PREVIOUS MONTHS RAINFALL... IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR AREA.
GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL... THE FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MAINLY BE EAST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR WITH A
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST. RAIN THREAT
DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL AGAIN FAVOR INLAND AREAS TOMORROW.
AREAL AVERAGE RAIN TOTALS THROUGH TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE UP
TO 3 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS IS. NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE NEED OF A WATCH BUT GIVEN LOWER RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW... WILL LEAVE THOSE COUNTIES OUT FOR
NOW.


.LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)..MODELS REMAIN IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SO A
BLEND WILL BE USED. A TROUGH AXIS (THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA) FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED
WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL WASH OUT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
IN OVER THE REGION AS ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LA ON
THURSDAY RETROGRADES SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF. AMPLE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME REGIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED OVER INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE MERGER.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND AREAS...AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CURRENT CONVECTION... HAVE REMOVED TEMPOS AND MAINTAINED VCTS AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR WILL BE LIKELY
GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IF
THUDNERSTORMS APPROACH A SITE. VFR EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE VCTS BY 14-16Z TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OVER
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TOMORROW. WHILE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS A LOW CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOCUSING OVER WATERS NEAR THE COASTLINE AND
FURTHER INLAND.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW HEADLINE AND
HAZARD CRITERIA TODAY AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE TROPICAL WAVES LIFTS NORTH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT.


&&

.CLIMATE...WITH LESS THAN TWO DAYS LEFT IN AUGUST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TAMPA COULD MOVE UP FROM THE CURRENT
3RD WETTEST AUGUST...2ND WETTEST JULY/AUGUST COMBINED...AND TIED
FOR 5TH WETTEST SUMMER (JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) SINCE RECORD BEGAN IN
1890.

  TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA
WETTEST AUGUST       WETTEST JUL/AUG      WETTEST SUMMER

1 18.59 IN 1949      1 28.31 IN 1960      1 43.03 IN 1945
2 17.83 IN 1898      2 27.48 IN 2015*     2 36.13 IN 2012
3 15.64 IN 2015*     3 26.33 IN 1925      3 34.79 IN 1909
4 15.17 IN 1932      4 26.12 IN 1898      4 34.67 IN 1960
5 14.90 IN 2003      5 24.53 IN 1906      5 33.71 IN 2015*
                                            33.71 IN 1925

* 2015 RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH AUGUST 29

&&

HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL OVER THE RECENT WEEKS HAVE BROUGHT MANY AREA
RIVERS AND CREEKS UP PAST THEIR FLOOD STAGES. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
WILL BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
AREAS AND THE FORECAST OF THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL HAS PROMPTED A
FLOOD WATCH FROM HERNANDO COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. RIVERS THAT ARE IN FLOOD OR EXPECTED TO FLOOD ARE:

THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AT TRILBY
THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AT CROOM
THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AT HOLDER
THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK
THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA
THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA
THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA
THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS
THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW
THE HORSE CREEK NEAR ARCADIA
THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD
THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS
THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS
THE HILLSBOROUGH RIVER NEAR ZEPHYRHILLS

PLEASE SEE THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  77  90 /  50  50  40  60
FMY  75  88  76  91 /  60  60  30  60
GIF  75  88  75  91 /  60  70  30  70
SRQ  75  87  77  90 /  50  50  40  60
BKV  74  88  74  90 /  50  50  30  60
SPG  77  88  78  90 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL
CLIMATE...69/CLOSE
HYDROLOGY...007/DOUGHERTY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.