Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 231055
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
555 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WHILE A DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP
OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY HELPING TO
DRIVE THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD TAKING THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE...THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS VEERING
TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND INTERIOR. ALSO WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY COOL EASTERN GULF WATERS WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME AREAS
OF SEA FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST FROM AROUND THE
TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD WHERE THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S AROUND CEDAR KEY TO LOW TO MID 60S AROUND THE
TAMPA BAY AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS TODAY AND IF WE DO GET
SEA FOG TO FORM SOME OF IT MAY BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE EFFECTING
COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY.
RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CONTINUING ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MORE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.

WITH SOME SUNSHINE TODAY AND MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S FAR NORTH TO THE MID
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. NEAR THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST OFF THE
COOLER GULF WATERS AND LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE LEVY
COUNTY COAST TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MESSY FORECAST TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...THEN MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SIMILARLY ENOUGH TO LEND CONFIDENCE TO A WET FORECAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH MAINLY
LIGHT RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME. A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE DIGGING TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF BY LATER ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE GULF. THIS
WILL SERVE TO ENERGIZE THE FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
INCREASING RAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOST OF THIS
WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT CREATES SIGNIFICANT LIFT AND OVER-RUNNING. TIMING OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINS VARIES SOME BETWEEN MODELS...BUT BEST GUESS AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL QUITE
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAKING THE MOISTURE OUT ALONG WITH IT. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT NICELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 60S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO THE 70S
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING THEN IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
EXIST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SOME OF THIS COULD BEGIN TO MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT CAUSING REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TAF
SITES NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...SOME MORE MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT IN THE WARM HUMID
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OFFSHORE AND EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR
SHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASING SPEEDS BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  71  81  67 /  20  20  40  30
FMY  86  71  84  71 /  20  10  10  30
GIF  85  69  85  66 /  50  20  30  30
SRQ  83  71  82  68 /  20  20  20  30
BKV  83  69  82  64 /  30  30  40  30
SPG  80  70  81  68 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON



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