Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 221359
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
959 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER GEORGIA AND ALABAMA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER
THE REGION. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE 12Z SOUNDING IS INDICATING
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH A VERY MOIST COLUMN
BELOW 500 MB. THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTLINE THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL OFF
SHORE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER THE COASTLINE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AFFECTING MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE RADAR FORECAST HAS THE LARGEST MASS OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INLAND JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY AROUND 17-18Z.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THEM INLAND. GRIDS LOOK ON
TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS FOR TODAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY ONSHORE NEAR SRQ THIS MORNING
BUT CONDITIONS REMAINED VFR. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE MORNING AND VCTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY MVFR TO IFR WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
WITH THE TSRA LATER IN THE DAY. CALM TO LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SW LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  74  87  73 /  60  40  60  30
FMY  89  74  88  72 /  60  40  50  40
GIF  88  72  88  72 /  60  40  60  30
SRQ  87  73  86  73 /  60  40  60  40
BKV  88  68  88  68 /  60  40  60  30
SPG  86  75  86  75 /  60  40  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING




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