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000
FXUS62 KTBW 260110
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
910 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...
KTBW 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS SHOWS A FAIRLY MOIST MID LEVEL LAYER WITH
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE BIT OF MOISTURE WAS NOT
ENOUGH TO FOSTER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED STORM IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING.

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR
THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  SCT LCL BKN CU
040-050 WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TARPON SPRINGS SOUTH
THROUGH BONITA BEACH INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO JUST OVER 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT FOR SUWANNEE RIVER TO TARPON
SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT...THOUGH
WINDS COULD STILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH 4 HOURS OR MORE OF
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE...BUT JUST
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. IF THE ERC FORECAST COMES IN AS HIGH FOR
SARASOTA COUNTY AS IT DID YESTERDAY...OR IF ERC VALUES RISE IN
OTHER COUNTIES...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH FURTHER ISSUES NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  89  69  88 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  67  90  69  89 /   0  10  10  20
GIF  64  89  67  87 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  65  90  68  88 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  57  90  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  72  87  71  86 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING
AVIATION...OGLESBY