Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 301419
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1019 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING AND ARE PUSHING ONSHORE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MORE
STORMS DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE STORMS TODAY AS GROUNDS ARE SATURATED AND SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE NO
UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AND MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE
VCTS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 02Z...THEN LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERALL...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND CLOSE TO STORMS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





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