Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 300023
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
823 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.UPDATE...
A few showers and storms over south Florida late this afternoon
have continued to develop north along outflow/sea breeze
boundaries into our area early this evening. This convection
will wind down by midnight with mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies expected for the remainder of the night. Winds will become
light and could see patchy ground fog could form in the typical
fog prone areas toward morning, but nothing widespread expected.
For Tuesday the transition to a wetter pattern will continue as
deeper moisture spreads north into the area. This combined with
daytime heating and the sea breezes will lead to isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon with the
best chances over the interior and south counties. Have already
tweaked the grids and updated the zones to add isolated PoPs to
the interior and south for this evening, otherwise remainder of
forecast look ok at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Majority of the convection should remain east of the southern
terminals this evening, but did add VCTS for a few hours to FMY
and RSW. Could see some brief MVFR conditions at LAL and PGD
toward morning, otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected
overnight into Tuesday morning. Some MVFR ceilings could develop
with daytime heating during mid to late Tuesday morning,
especially at the southern terminals of PGD, FMY, and RSW. Then
after 18z some MVFR/local IFR conditions in convection could
impact LAL, PGD, FMY, and RSW, but have only gone with VCTS at
this time.

&&

.MARINE...
The rather light winds will persist with a shift to onshore and
increase to around 10 knots near the coast Tuesday afternoon. A
more east to southeast flow with a shift to onshore with the sea
breeze each afternoon will setup during midweek, and convection
could begin to move offshore impacting the waters during the
evening and overnight hours.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  91  77  91 /   0  20  10  40
FMY  74  92  75  92 /  10  30  20  50
GIF  74  95  74  94 /  20  40  30  50
SRQ  74  87  75  87 /   0  10  10  30
BKV  70  92  72  92 /   0  20  10  40
SPG  78  90  77  90 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/Close
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...42/Norman


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