Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 280124
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...INFLUENCED BY A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WESTWARD INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. MAIN MESOSCALE FEATURE DRIVING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IS THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES MERGING ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THE MERGER IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE
CASE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AROUND 11 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE SEA BREEZE MERGER...FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD WHERE
COLUMN MOISTURE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BASED ON
KTBW/KMFL SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULDN/T SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 725
MB SEEN IN THE KTBW 00Z RAOB. AFTER 11 PM THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE MERGER SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN FREE CONDITIONS OVER
LAND AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER POP UP AROUND KTPA/KPIE THROUGH 03Z.
RAIN FREE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KSRQ
ON THURSDAY...SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT KPGD...KRSW...KFMY AFTER 18Z.
SHRA/TSRA INCLUSION IN THE NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY NEED TO BE
RE-EVALUATED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RETURNING A BIT MORE QUICKLY BASED ON ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
EVENING EASTERLY SURGES WILL INCREASE WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTED
TO STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
TOMORROW WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONG STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  93  78  92 /  20  20  20  40
FMY  76  93  76  93 /  20  60  30  40
GIF  75  94  75  95 /  10  20  20  50
SRQ  75  93  77  91 /  20  40  30  30
BKV  71  94  73  93 /  10  10  20  50
SPG  79  92  80  92 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...JELSEMA
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.