Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 270837
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
337 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tuesday)...
Strong mid level west/southwesterlies continue this morning
across the greater part of the CONUS. Within this flow,
several shortwaves are apparent in morning water vapor
imagery. One such shortwave trough looks to bring
thunderstorms to parts of the Mississippi Valley region. To
the south and east of this feature, broad surface high
pressure will remain in place. This combined with a building
upper ridge will be the main weather features of the next
couple of days.

For today, easterly flow will allow moisture to increase
quite rapidly. The shortwave trough mentioned above will
accelerate across Alabama and Georgia late in the day. While
lift will be very subtle with this feature, it may be
enough when combined with weak seabreeze circulations to
spark a couple of showers and/or thunderstorms. This would
mainly occur over interior sections of the peninsula, with
greater chances across north central Florida. Any activity
will likely end by early evening. With easterly flow, the
west coast seabreeze looks to be pinned fairly close to the
Gulf coast. This will limit any cooling due to inland
advection of the marine layer. The result of this will
ultimately be very warm February temperatures. Highs this
afternoon are primed to reach the 80s across the entire
region. Areas along and south of I-4 are likely to rise into
the middle and upper 80s with parts of southwest Florida
nearing 90 degrees this afternoon. Yes, it is only February.
Clouds will offer little relief from the beaming sun as a
deep stable airmass builds in with intensifying mid level
ridging.

Tonight, winds will become more southeasterly, allowing low
level moisture to continue to increase. This combined with
relatively light winds is likely to lead to some patchy fog.
Sea fog may be a concern mainly over the waters off the
Florida Big Bend region. As moisture continues to increase
with rising dewpoints, lows will only fall into the low to
mid 60s most areas.

For Tuesday, expect much of the same, though there will
likely be no chance of rain as our central/southern Gulf of
Mexico ridge continues to gradually build northward. This
will set the stage for very stable conditions across most of
the peninsula, and another warm day is on tap. Highs will
once again climb to the low to mid 80s most areas. A 90
degree reading or two would not be surprising at all along
south of I-4. And yes, tomorrow will still be February,
though it is the last day of the month. We hope you have
enjoyed it!

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Strong mid/upper level ridge across the Gulf and Caribbean
will remain in place with surface high pressure centered
over the Atlantic. A low level south to southeast flow
regime will keep the area in a warm, muggy airmass on
Wednesday...similar to Monday and Tuesday. Highs in low 80s
can be expected across the Nature Coast with mid/upper 80s
elsewhere...maybe an isolated 90 degree reading in a few
spots for the start of March.

On Thursday, upper-level troughing across the NE U.S. will
allow a cold front to shift south into the panhandle before
pushing through our area on Friday morning. Limited moisture
will be associated with the front be enough to maintain
chance shower wording in the forecast but total QPF looks
low at the moment. Behind the front, drier and slightly
cooler air will filter in for Friday and into next weekend.
As can be expected in March, the cool-down will be short
lived as high pressure will move into the mid Atlantic coast
on Saturday and over the western Atlantic Sunday. Boundary
layer winds will veer to the east across the Florida
peninsula which will allow low level moisture to rebound and
temperatures to climb back to about five degrees above
climatic normals.

&&

.AVIATION (06z TAFs)...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Northeast winds will become southeasterly by late Mon
morning. A weak seabreeze will allow winds to become
south/southwest for near coastal terminals by 19z to 20z.
Winds will decrease by 00z becoming easterly through 06z.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of high pressure to our north will promote an
easterly wind surge and cautionary winds and seas early this
morning. Conditions should improve from late morning into
the early afternoon as the seabreeze develops allowing for
winds to decrease. High pressure will gradually shift south
and east, with the ridge axis setting up over the waters for
much of the coming week. This will bring light winds and
favorable boating conditions through at least Wednesday. An
approaching cold front will allow winds to become
southwesterly. Pooling moisture ahead of the front may yield
patchy sea fog mid to late week. The front will bring
increasing chances for a few showers and/or storms late
Thursday into Friday. Brisk northeasterly winds will fill in
behind the front, bringing a period of at least cautionary
winds and seas as we near the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will settle in north of the Florida peninsula
today, allowing for a prolonged period of east to southeast
flow through late week. This will allow moisture to
increase rather quickly today, preventing humidities from
nearing critical levels. Despite very warm temperatures the
next few days, humidities will remain rather high. A cold
front will move across the region Thursday night into
Friday, bringing a shot of slightly drier and cooler air,
and a northerly wind shift.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  82  66  83  66 /  10  10  10  10
FMY  86  67  86  67 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  85  66  86  66 /  20  10  10  10
SRQ  82  65  82  65 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  84  61  86  63 /  20  10  10  10
SPG  80  66  80  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...11/McKaughan


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