Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 291843
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
243 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Thursday)...
The overall set-up currently observed will remain in place through
tonight- ridging aloft with surface high pressure centered east of
the state. This will allow winds to become light and variable
overnight and we should again see some patchy ground fog toward
daybreak. Lows in the morning will be mild and above normal.
The first half of Thursday will start out similar to today. A closed
low will then move into the central part of the country by the end of
the day, suppressing the ridge a bit and generally lowering its
influence over Florida. The surface ridge will also weaken a bit as
it pushes eastward ahead of an approaching cold front. Through the
end of the day, this will really only turn our winds more to the
south, although we should still have a sea breeze right near the
coast. Overall, there should be enough suppression from the ridge to
keep rainfall out of the forecast and temperatures will remain on the
warm side, just a bit cooler at the coast.
.LONG TERM (Thursday Night-Wednesday)...
Upper level ridging sits along the eastern seaboard as an upper low over
Missouri and associated troughing moves eastward. A more zonal pattern
sets up by Friday afternoon and will persist through Sunday when ridging
sets up over the region. On the surface, high pressure off the mid-Atlantic
coast ridges south, while an area of low pressure over Missouri and associated
frontal boundary moves eastward. This front will bring a chance of showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms to the area on Friday. The front clears
the area by late Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds into the
area bringing clearing conditions through the weekend. Another frontal
system develops by Tuesday next week and will bring another chance of
rain showers to the area by Monday morning through Tuesday.
VFR conditions are expected through most of the forecast period. Some
patchy ground fog could affect terminals across southwest Florida and
possible KLAL toward daybreak, with VFR then returning for the rest
of the day. Winds will become light and variable tonight and then
more southerly through Thursday.
High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday, with no
marine hazards expected. Winds will become onshore with the sea
breeze through this afternoon and into the evening. A more southerly
flow will develop for Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front,
which will bring shower and possibly some thunderstorm activity for
Friday. Winds Thursday night into Friday could increase close to
cautionary criteria, otherwise no headlines are expected. Lighter
winds and drier conditions return for the weekend as high pressure
moves back over the area.
Relative humidity values will fall near critical levels east of
around the I-75 corridor for Thursday afternoon, and may briefly
drop just below 35%, but long durations are not expected and light
winds will preclude Red Flag conditions. Low-level moisture will
increase for Friday, and relative humidity values are expected to
remain above 35%. Some patchy fog is possible toward daybreak
Thursday morning, but widespread dense fog is not expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 66 82 68 81 / 0 0 10 40
FMY 65 84 66 85 / 0 0 0 20
GIF 64 88 65 85 / 0 0 10 30
SRQ 65 76 67 78 / 0 0 10 30
BKV 61 86 62 83 / 0 0 10 40
SPG 67 80 68 80 / 0 0 10 40
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/Carlisle
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn