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000
FXUS62 KTBW 100047
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAMS. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW RIDES NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF A
LARGE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE BAJA REGION. THIS FLOW
THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THESE FEATURES WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING OUR REGION WITHIN A FAST UPPER LEVEL
BUT BENIGN WESTERLY FLOW. A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULTS FROM A HIGHLY DIVERGENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE RRQ OF STRONG UPPER JET EXITING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST...COMBINED WITH A SHARP INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE FADING OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET SUPPORT EXITS AWAY...AND
THE ONLY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE A BATCH OF THIN HIGH LEVEL
BLOWOFF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD.

CONDITIONS ARE QUIET AND DRY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MID-EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING OUT OF THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S AT MOST SPOTS.
A STRONG SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT DEVELOPED THIS PAST AFTERNOON
IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL TERRESTRIAL
HEATING...AND THE GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL END SHORTLY.
THE CALM AND FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THOSE LEAVING THE HOUSE EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

A DRY AND WARM DAY WILL START OUT THE WORK WEEK ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST TO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. ONCE AGAIN...THE LIGHT GRADIENT AND
STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING WILL FORCE A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP COASTAL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
NORTH OF PINELLAS COUNTY MAY EVEN DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST NASA SPORT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANALYSIS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AWAITS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION TO KICK IT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE STATE ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST AND IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...
10/00Z-11/00Z: PREVAILING VFR..EXCEPT 09Z-14Z AT LAL/SRQ/PGD/FMY/RSW
WHERE BR/FG RESULTS IN MVFR VSBY BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LCL IFR. THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL COLLAPSE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. BAY/SEA BREEZES RETURN FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  57  76  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  58  81  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  56  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  57  76  59  77 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  46  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  59  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
AVIATION...RUDE