Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 252334
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
734 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue this evening. Still a few stray
thunderstorms across the region, and will handle these with brief
tempo groups if needed as probabilities for the terminals are too
low to mention in latest TAF package. Otherwise, VFR is expected
overnight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon,
with VCTS for all sites starting at 18Z.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 238 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight - Tuesday)...
Similar to previous days sea breeze and outflow boundary driven
showers and storms (Isolated to low end scattered range coverage
in nature due to warmer temperatures aloft) will wind down across
the forecast area during the early evening as boundary interactions
weaken and loss of daytime heating occurs with convective debris
cloudiness again gradually thinning out with skies becoming partly
cloudy overnight.

On Tuesday deep layered ridging surface and aloft from the western
Atlantic extending across the northern peninsula and southeastern
states will remain in control with a light southeast to southerly
wind flow continuing across the forecast area. Models show that
moisture will not be a plentiful as today as some mid level dry
air and subsidence moves into the region, so expect to see less
diurnal sea breeze driven coverage of showers and storms across
the forecast area with pops mainly in the 20 to 30 percent range
from the coast to inland locations.

Temperatures tonight and Tuesday will remain a few degrees above
normal with lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s over inland
areas, and upper 70s along the coast, with daytime highs on
Tuesday climbing to around 90 along the coast, and lower to mid
90s inland.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night - Monday)...
Models continue in very good agreement with the features and
pattern through the forecast period.

Upper ridge centered over the GA and SC low country into the
Western Atlantic with remnant upper low over the NW Gulf of
Mexico mid-late week as a series of dry pockets aloft periodically
move through the region. The upper ridge slowly moves eastward
further into the Western Atlantic for the weekend as an upper
trough moves through the Great Lakes then into New England early
next week.

Western Atlantic surface Bermuda high pressure remains weak and
meanders over the FL Peninsula through the week and into the
weekend with light low level steering flow.

Expect slightly below normal scattered afternoon/evening pops
through much of the week then return back to 40-60 percent
diurnal heating and seabreeze/outflow convection this weekend.
Lower pops and increased sun to keep daytime temps a few degrees
above normal with warm overnight temps as well area wide.

AVIATION...
Brief MVFR/IFR conditions may impact the terminals through 00Z as
scattered shra/tsra develop over the region and have handled with
VCTS for now. Outside of the convection VFR is expected. Southeast
to south winds at 7 to 10 knots can be expected with higher gusts
in the vicinity of tsra. VFR with southeast to south winds in the
5 to 7 knot range can be expected after 02Z as the shra/tsra end.

MARINE...
Tranquil boating conditions will continue over the Gulf waters
tonight through the end of the week as the ridge axis currently
across the northern peninsula slowly sinks south to be across the
central peninsula by mid to late in the week. Light southeast to
south winds along with slight seas will prevail over the waters
through mid week, then as the ridge sink south a light southeast
to south wind flow can be expected from Venice south, while a
light south to southwest flow will develops further north with a
weak pressure favoring an enhanced onshore sea breeze component
along the coast each afternoon. Wind and seas will be higher in
the vicinity of thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are
expected.

FIRE WEATHER...
Ample low level moisture will keep humidity values well above
critical levels through the remainder of the week with no fire
weather issues expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  92  78  93 /  20  30  20  40
FMY  76  94  76  93 /  20  20  30  50
GIF  75  94  76  95 /  30  30  30  30
SRQ  78  91  77  92 /  20  20  20  30
BKV  74  92  74  95 /  20  30  20  40
SPG  79  92  80  93 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05/Carlisle


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