Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS11 KWNS 251834
SPC MCD 251834
Mesoscale Discussion 0331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017
Areas affected...central through north central Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251834Z - 252030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will pose some risk for a few instances of hail and
strong to locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon. A ww issuance
will probably not be necessary unless more storms begin to show
signs of further intensification and organization.
DISCUSSION...a small cluster of thunderstorms which appears to have
initiated within pre-frontal confluence zone and in association with
a northeastward-ejecting vorticity maximum has intensified over west
central MS. Destabilization of the boundary layer has occurred, and
objective analysis is indicating MLCAPE from 500 to 800 J/kg.
However, the instability corridor is relatively narrow due to
widespread clouds and convective precipitation attending a squall
line just downstream. The cluster of storms will develop northeast
into northern MS next couple hours where effective bulk shear from
30-40 kt is sufficient for updraft rotation. However tendency will
be for mid level winds and deep-layer vertical shear to gradually
weaken as the upper trough advances east. The narrow instability
corridor and weakening winds aloft suggest the severe threat will
likely remain relatively confined in space and time. In the
meantime, the stronger storms will remain capable of a few instances
of large hail and damaging wind.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 32349056 33279020 34048973 34038884 33188907 32188991