Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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664 FXUS65 KABQ 101132 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 532 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 212 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Strong winds in ABQ taper off some this morning with one more strong surge forecast this evening and tonight. Despite the cool down, the increased moisture behind this front will yield increased showers and a few thunderstorms over north-central, central and eastern NM today and Saturday. A few storms will be strong enough to produce small hail and gusty winds and brief moderate to heavy rainfall. Drier conditions push west to east across the state Sunday with showers and a few storms lasting longest over northern and northeastern NM Sunday evening. A warming trend returns to start next week with daily rounds of scattered afternoon showers and storms Monday and Tuesday. Guidance is good that continued chances for showers and storms will continue into the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe, at least across northern and eastern NM. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 212 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 The latest water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper level low drifting south across central NV with fast west-southwest flow aloft over AZ and NM. At the surface, low level east-northeast winds have set up across NM between a 1009mb low near Phoenix and a 1026mb high near Colorado Springs. The pressure gradient across the central mt chain has allowed gap winds to continue this morning but speeds are still below High Wind Warning levels. The latest MOS guidance, NBM 50th percentile, and most HREF members keep gusts below 58 mph, so this hazard will likely be cancelled before sunrise. Meanwhile, any remnant showers and storms over northern NM early this morning will decrease after sunrise with very slow improvement to stratus decks across northeast NM. Locations around the Sangre de Cristo Mts will stay socked in all day with temps around 15F below normal. The upper low over NV will then drift southeast into northern AZ this afternoon and near the Four Corners region tonight. Moisture advection with strengthening low level southeast flow over eastern NM will interact with large scale ascent increasing over NM thru tonight. Showers and storms will redevelop along and east of the central mt chain by late this afternoon then move northeast into nearby highlands and plains of eastern NM thru this evening. Model instability is not impressive and most activity will move into a more elevated unstable layer across the plains tonight. Widespread areas of rain with embedded storms are expected thru Saturday across eastern NM as the upper level low moves slowly east along the NM/CO border. QPF amounts have trended up considerably from WPC and this trend is also noted in hi-res CAMs. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25" to 0.75" are forecast for northern and eastern NM with an area greater than 1.25" over northeast NM. Temps will be cold enough for to support a few more inches of snow above 9,500 feet. Gap winds are also likely to develop in the RGV tonight with gusts near 55 mph on the east side of the ABQ metro. Temps on Saturday will be around 20F below normal across eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 212 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Saturday night begins the long term period with the 566dm H5 low tracking eastward over CO with its associated Pacific front shunting low-level moisture across eastern NM back toward TX. Numerical model guidance is in fairly good agreement evening and overnight thunderstorm development will focus along the northern reaches of southerly return flow in east-central NM just north of I- 40 over San Miguel County. Brief downpours, cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds and small hail will accompany these storm cells. Southwesterly flow aloft will track these storms northeast over the northeastern plains including Harding and Union Counties Saturday night. Drier westerly air fills in behind the Pacific front through the forecast area Sunday as the center of the H5 low tracks over southeastern CO. Enough moisture will be present in association with a vortmax wrapping around the backside of the low over northeastern NM. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop over northeastern NM Sunday afternoon tracking southeast Sunday evening. Gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning and small hail will be possible in these storms. Monday and Tuesday see a warming trend ensue most areas as a weak ridge begins to move over from the west. There will be enough mid- level moisture to allow for high-based showers and a few thunderstorms over north-central NM. Some of these cells could produce strong erratic gusty winds at the surface each afternoon. Forecast confidence tanks Wednesday and beyond due to the wide variety of scenarios regarding the interaction of an upper low over the southwest U.S. and an upper trough diving down the western CONUS. Did not deviate much from the NBM during this time as it matches well with a cluster of ensemble solutions showing the two lows phasing together with an amplified ridging pattern building in behind them. This would yield an influx of cooler air and higher moisture pushing into eastern NM behind a backdoor cold front. Increased shower and thunderstorm activity would return to eastern and northern NM as a result Wednesday and Thursday in this scenario. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Impactful weather will continue across the airspace over the next 24 hrs. Widespread MVFR cigs and local IFR across northeast NM this morning will gradually improve by early afternoon. However, locations around the Sangre de Cristo Mts may not improve to VFR today. The next round of showers and storms will develop along the central mt chain and spread northeast into nearby highlands after 3 pm. This activity will evolve into a large area of rain with embedded storms tonight along and east of the central mt chain. Widespread IFR will develop overnight across eastern NM with MVFR in surrounding areas of the Rio Grande Valley and the TX/NM border. Gap winds will also increase again in the Santa Fe and ABQ metro areas with gusts of 30 to 40 kt common after 6pm. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 A pattern change toward cooler and wetter conditions will persist over northern and eastern NM thru the end of next week. Widespread rainfall of 0.25" to 0.75" is expected for northern and eastern NM thru Sunday morning. Locally higher amounts up to 1.50" may occur over northeast NM during this period. Meanwhile, dry, warm, and breezy conditions will continue over southern and western areas where marginally critical fire weather is possible, especially in the west central highlands today and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 72 45 70 40 / 10 20 40 5 Dulce........................... 64 33 62 29 / 70 50 80 20 Cuba............................ 65 40 64 36 / 40 30 70 20 Gallup.......................... 70 34 68 33 / 0 0 10 0 El Morro........................ 67 37 66 36 / 5 5 20 0 Grants.......................... 72 37 69 32 / 10 10 30 0 Quemado......................... 71 37 69 36 / 0 0 5 0 Magdalena....................... 73 46 72 43 / 5 20 40 5 Datil........................... 70 40 69 38 / 0 10 20 0 Reserve......................... 75 36 74 32 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 80 48 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 56 33 55 30 / 80 60 90 30 Los Alamos...................... 61 43 61 42 / 30 50 80 40 Pecos........................... 56 42 54 39 / 30 60 90 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 38 54 39 / 70 50 90 40 Red River....................... 46 31 49 29 / 80 60 90 50 Angel Fire...................... 47 32 49 27 / 60 60 90 50 Taos............................ 59 36 60 32 / 50 50 80 40 Mora............................ 51 37 51 32 / 50 60 90 60 Espanola........................ 70 43 68 42 / 30 40 70 40 Santa Fe........................ 62 43 61 42 / 30 60 70 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 45 64 41 / 20 50 70 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 73 49 71 48 / 20 40 70 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 75 51 74 46 / 20 30 60 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 77 51 76 46 / 20 30 60 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 74 50 73 48 / 20 30 60 20 Belen........................... 79 48 78 43 / 10 30 50 20 Bernalillo...................... 74 51 74 46 / 20 40 70 30 Bosque Farms.................... 77 48 77 43 / 20 30 60 20 Corrales........................ 75 50 74 47 / 20 30 60 20 Los Lunas....................... 78 49 77 44 / 20 30 50 20 Placitas........................ 68 47 69 46 / 20 50 70 30 Rio Rancho...................... 74 49 73 47 / 20 30 60 20 Socorro......................... 82 51 82 48 / 5 30 30 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 43 61 43 / 30 50 80 40 Tijeras......................... 66 46 66 43 / 30 50 70 40 Edgewood........................ 63 44 63 39 / 20 50 80 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 65 43 64 36 / 20 50 80 40 Clines Corners.................. 57 41 57 38 / 20 60 80 50 Mountainair..................... 68 44 67 40 / 20 50 60 30 Gran Quivira.................... 69 44 69 40 / 10 50 60 30 Carrizozo....................... 77 51 76 48 / 20 40 60 20 Ruidoso......................... 65 46 65 43 / 20 50 70 20 Capulin......................... 52 39 51 39 / 50 40 80 50 Raton........................... 54 40 54 38 / 50 50 80 40 Springer........................ 56 42 54 38 / 40 50 80 50 Las Vegas....................... 54 40 52 39 / 40 60 90 60 Clayton......................... 62 46 59 45 / 20 30 70 60 Roy............................. 58 44 53 44 / 30 60 80 70 Conchas......................... 67 50 60 49 / 20 60 80 80 Santa Rosa...................... 64 48 58 47 / 20 50 80 70 Tucumcari....................... 68 48 62 49 / 20 40 80 80 Clovis.......................... 70 50 61 51 / 20 40 90 70 Portales........................ 71 50 62 51 / 10 50 80 70 Fort Sumner..................... 69 50 61 50 / 20 50 80 70 Roswell......................... 75 58 68 58 / 10 60 60 40 Picacho......................... 67 50 64 48 / 20 50 60 30 Elk............................. 68 48 67 45 / 10 60 60 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...42