Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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507 FXUS65 KABQ 120039 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 639 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 The combination of an upper level disturbance and a backdoor cold front will bring a round of showers and storms to central and eastern NM through tonight, some of which may become strong to severe. Another round of showers and storms is forecast Sunday afternoon across north central and northeast NM as the disturbance moves east across the area. A warming and drying trend is forecast early week, but chances for showers and storms will ramp up again Wednesday and Thursday as another disturbance moves east across the region. A renewed warming and drying trend will begin Friday and continue into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 The upper low is currently moving east toward the Four Corners per the latest water vapor satellite imagery and is interacting with low level southeast flow behind the backdoor front to provide a favorable shear environment for a round of strong to severe storms this afternoon, despite unfavorable instability. Latest CAMs show a continued northeast progression of storms with expansion of coverage going into the evening hours across northeast NM. Areas along/north of I-40 will be favored later today and this evening for strong to severe storms producing locally heavy downpours, hail and occasional lightning. There is an enhanced threat for flooding on the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar late this afternoon and evening with these storms, especially considering the 0.10-0.40" that fell on the scar overnight through this morning. The upper low will continue east across southern CO and northern NM tonight through Sunday and will bring another round of convection to north central/northeast NM after some daytime heating. However, the shear environment will be minimal, especially compared to today`s, so any thunderstorms that develop Sunday will likely be garden-variety. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Weak ridging will follow behind the departing upper low on Mon/Tue, bringing a warming/drying trend. Daytime temperatures should be back above normal most areas by Tuesday. Sufficient moisture will linger on Mon/Tue for isolated to scattered daytime heating triggered showers and storms, mainly over the mountains. The combination of an approaching northern stream trough and an approaching weak Pacific low will bring sufficient forcing and a bump in PWATs for an increase precipitation chances Wed/Thu. This setup will likely be wetter for areas along/east of the central mountain chain as the northern stream trough brings a backdoor front to aide in forcing. An upper level ridge will follow the departing troughs on Fri/Sat, bringing a renewed warming/drying trend with temperatures rising back above normal areawide by Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Mesoscale models depict strong to severe thunderstorms continuing over eastern NM through much of the evening, where large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Late this evening through the late night hours areas of low clouds and some patchy fog are then forecast to produce MVFR and localized IFR conditions east of the central mountain chain. The low clouds will retreat from the west, ending on the far eastern plains by late morning. Sunday, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the northern mountains by late morning, then spread eastward across northeast NM during the afternoon and early evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next seven days. The combination of an upper level low and backdoor front will bring good chances for wetting storms to northern and eastern NM through tonight. Another round of wetting storms is forecast Sunday across north central and northeast areas as the upper low exits to the east. An upper level ridge will bring hot, dry and unstable conditions Mon/Tue, with low chances for wetting rain over the mountains. An upper level trough will bring back good chances for wetting storms Wed/Thu, followed by a warming and drying trend that will bring back hot, dry and unstable conditions by Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 40 73 41 79 / 10 10 0 5 Dulce........................... 31 65 32 73 / 20 40 10 30 Cuba............................ 35 65 37 73 / 20 20 5 20 Gallup.......................... 33 71 34 77 / 10 10 0 5 El Morro........................ 34 67 38 72 / 5 10 0 20 Grants.......................... 33 70 34 76 / 5 10 0 10 Quemado......................... 36 69 38 74 / 0 10 0 20 Magdalena....................... 42 70 45 74 / 0 10 0 10 Datil........................... 37 67 41 72 / 0 10 0 20 Reserve......................... 33 74 35 79 / 0 5 0 5 Glenwood........................ 46 79 49 83 / 0 5 0 0 Chama........................... 30 58 31 66 / 30 60 30 40 Los Alamos...................... 41 62 44 70 / 50 30 10 30 Pecos........................... 37 62 38 69 / 60 30 10 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 56 37 65 / 60 50 20 30 Red River....................... 29 50 30 58 / 70 60 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 28 54 28 60 / 70 50 20 40 Taos............................ 32 61 31 70 / 60 40 20 20 Mora............................ 33 60 35 66 / 70 40 10 40 Espanola........................ 41 68 42 76 / 60 30 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 41 63 43 71 / 50 20 10 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 40 67 41 75 / 40 20 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 71 50 78 / 30 10 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 46 73 48 79 / 20 10 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 75 47 81 / 20 10 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 46 73 48 79 / 20 10 5 5 Belen........................... 43 77 44 82 / 10 10 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 45 73 47 80 / 30 10 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 42 76 43 81 / 10 10 5 5 Corrales........................ 45 74 46 80 / 20 10 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 43 76 43 82 / 10 10 0 5 Placitas........................ 45 69 47 76 / 30 20 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 46 73 47 79 / 20 10 0 5 Socorro......................... 48 80 49 83 / 5 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 64 44 71 / 30 20 5 20 Tijeras......................... 42 67 44 74 / 30 10 5 20 Edgewood........................ 39 67 41 75 / 30 10 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 69 36 76 / 30 10 5 10 Clines Corners.................. 38 64 38 70 / 50 10 5 20 Mountainair..................... 40 68 42 74 / 10 10 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 40 69 41 75 / 10 10 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 47 74 49 78 / 10 5 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 43 67 45 70 / 20 5 0 20 Capulin......................... 38 60 40 67 / 80 70 20 30 Raton........................... 38 64 39 72 / 70 60 20 20 Springer........................ 38 66 39 72 / 70 40 10 30 Las Vegas....................... 36 64 38 69 / 70 30 10 30 Clayton......................... 46 69 47 74 / 80 60 20 10 Roy............................. 43 67 44 73 / 90 40 10 30 Conchas......................... 50 75 47 79 / 80 20 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 47 72 45 76 / 70 10 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 50 77 46 80 / 70 20 5 10 Clovis.......................... 53 79 50 79 / 60 20 5 0 Portales........................ 53 80 49 81 / 60 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 52 78 47 80 / 50 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 56 86 54 86 / 20 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 78 48 79 / 20 0 0 10 Elk............................. 45 75 47 76 / 20 5 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...44