National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160707
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
307 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front drops south of the area this morning. This front
is forecast to lift back north as a warm front tonight into
Wednesday. Another front crosses the area Thursday with a
stronger cold front then expected by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler and drier today with light east to northeast winds in the
wake of a weak cold front.

- A few showers are possible tonight as the front starts to move
back north as a warm front.

Latest analysis shows that the weak cold front has crossed the
northwest third of the FA and continues to push southward. Showers
have finally dissipated. The front will then cross the remainder of
the area between now and 8-9 AM. Temps will only drop into the mid
50s-lower 60s following the FROPA, as winds become NE (could see a
very brief period of 20-25 mph gusts near the coast between
5-10 AM). The wind decreases and veers to the east today with
partly to mostly sunny skies (mainly due to high clouds). Dew
points drop into the upper 30s-40s across much of the area by
this aftn, and any instability should remain across western
portions of the VA/NC. Forecast highs are in the mid 70s-80F
inland, with mid 60s-mid 70s near the immediate coast. Mostly
dry tonight although a few weakening showers will try to push
into the area from the west as the front starts to move back
north as a warm front. Lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and and isolated thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening, with low-end precipitation chances
continuing through Thursday.

- Not quite as warm as yesterday, but remaining above normal through
Thursday.

The front continues to move north on Wednesday, but will likely
stall in/near the VA Northern Neck or Lower Eastern Shore. Despite
mostly cloudy skies, highs likely reach the lower 80s across
southern/western portions of the FA, but will fail to get out of the
60s across much of the eastern shore with E-SE flow off the cooler
water. In addition, low clouds may hang around through much of the
day north of the front. Of course, there is still some uncertainty
regarding the temperature forecast on Wed...which will depend on the
exact position of the warm front. Isolated to widely scattered
showers are possible on Wed (mainly during the aftn/evening), with a
tstm or two also possible. Sfc low pressure will likely develop
along the stalled front across nrn VA/the eastern shore Wed
night...with some increase in shower coverage expected overnight
near the coast. Precip should exit to the E/NE by sunrise on
Thursday. PoPs are 30-50% though QPF should remain on the light side
(0.25" or less). Forecast lows Wed night in the 50s N/NE and 60s S.

Thursday continues to look like the warmest day of the period with
highs in the 80s for most of the area (70s across the NE), despite
the weak cold front moving through and the LLVL flow becoming NW.
Will keep slight chance PoPs across the eastern 2/3rds of the area
due to the cold frontal passage occuring during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...

-A stronger cold front arrives this weekend, with noticeably cooler
temperatures expected by Sunday and Monday.

A slightly stronger shot of CAA arrives Thu night-Fri AM as the flow
becomes NE as high pressure briefly builds in from the NNE. It will
be cooler on Fri (60s near the coast/70s inland) with the NE to E
flow. A stronger cold front is progged to approach from the NW Fri
night and the 00z/16 global models now all show the front crossing
the area on Saturday. Shower chances increase late Friday ahead of
the front and continue through Saturday (although PoPs are only 20-
40% at most). There is a chc of tstms Sat aftn (highest S). However,
this will depend on whether the FROPA occurs in the morning or aftn
(a later FROPA would allow for a more widespread tstm threat in the
local area). Temps on Saturday will depend on the timing of the
FROPA. It will be much cooler behind the front on Sunday and Monday.
In addition, a southern stream low pressure system may bring
additional rain to the region during this time (highest PoPs are in
SE VA/NE NC)...although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding this. Otherwise, high pressure slowly builds in from the
NW Sunday into Monday. Lows Sunday/Monday night will be cool, but at
this time it does not look to be cool enough for
widespread frost/freeze potential.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Tuesday...

Prevailing VFR conditions will continue through the 06z/16 TAF
period. Scattered showers INVOF ECG should diminish by 08z, with
dry wx expected at all terminals thereafter. A cold front is
progged to cross the terminals from N-S between now and 12z, and
winds become NE at ~10 kt behind the front. Winds veer to the E
then SE this aftn/evening with clear skies outside of SCT-BKN
high clouds. Cloud bases lower tonight as the front starts to
move back north as a warm front. MVFR CIGs are possible late
tonight at RIC with low-end shower chances after 06z.

Outlook: Shower chances continue Wednesday/Wednesday night as
that frontal boundary continues to move north before stalling
in/near the eastern shore. Flight restrictions are possible
Wed-Thu AM, especially at RIC/SBY. Drier conditions move in by
late Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure remains off the Southeast coast this afternoon.
Conditions are calm locally right now with west/southwest winds of 8-
12kt with waves of 1-2ft and 2-3ft seas. A weakening cold front is
slowly dropping south into the state. Storms are expected to develop
ahead of the front and move south/southeastward later this afternoon
and into the evening hours, generally between 5-10pm. At least a few
SMWs will likely be needed for 34+ kt wind gusts and potentially
isolated hail.

Storm chances will end from north to south later this evening. Winds
will become northeasterly behind the front during the early morning
hours, then turn more easterly during the day. Speeds will generally
remain below SCA thresholds, though there may be a 2-3 hour period
where the Bay sees very low-end SCA winds roughly between 3-6am.
Opted not to issue a SCA now since it`s so brief and right on the
threshold line. Expecting sub-SCA conditions for most of the week
with off and on rain chances through mid-week. Waves will remain
around 1-2ft with seas of 2-3ft. Seas will build to 4-5ft on Friday,
but should subside to start the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Norfolk (KORF) set a new daily record high temperature with
their high of 90 yesterday (4/15), breaking the previous high
of 89 (1941).

Wallops (KWAL) set a new daily record high temperature with
their high of 87 yesterday (4/15), breaking the previous high
of 84 (1967).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...JKP
CLIMATE...AKQ