619
FXUS61 KAKQ 290727
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
327 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will bring hot and humid
conditions into early next week, along with daily diurnal
thunderstorms chances. A cold front arrives by Tuesday bringing
an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. Behind the
front, dew points will drop a few degrees and bring some relief
from the humidity through the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 327 AM EDT Sunday...

- Hot and humid conditions continue today.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this
  afternoon/evening, with a few possibly strong to severe.

Surface analysis places a cold front stretched across the Ohio River
Valley through western New York this morning. Aloft, an expansive
ridge is planted across the western North Atlantic and generally
zonal flow over our area. GOES Nighttime Microphysics is depicting
mostly clear skies this morning. Some patchy fog is being reported
at a few observation sites, though not nearly as thick as last
night`s fog. Temperatures are currently in the 70s, aside from areas
directly adjacent to the water which are seeing near 80 degrees.

Above normal temperatures will continue today ahead of any
developing storms, with highs in the lower to mid 90s expected. Heat
indices will range between 97-104F, and while some areas could
briefly hit 105F+ heat indices especially in SE VA and NE NC, have
decided not to issue a Heat Advisory. This afternoon the
aforementioned frontal boundary will sag south towards our northern
counties. This will help ignite showers and thunderstorms across our
area. Daytime heating will help increase instability, with abundant
MLCAPE available to developing storms and minimal inhibition
expected. The limiting factor will continue to be low shear values,
but isolated strong to severe storm are still possible. SPC has
placed most of the area (excluding far SE VA and NE NC) in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather, with the main threat being
damaging winds. PW values across our area will nearing 2+" and
steering flow will be relatively weak, which will lead to slower
moving storms. The combination of the slower storm motion and ample
atmospheric moisture could result in localized flash flooding. WPC
has a majority of the area in a Marginal ERO for today to account
for the isolated flooding threat. Clouds will scatter some
overnight, but partly to mostly cloudy skies will linger through
early Monday morning as the front remains parked to our north, with
the highest coverage expected in the NW portion of the local area.
Temperatures will drop lower to mid 70s NW and the mid to upper 70s
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 327 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Hot weather continues into early next week, with chances of
  afternoon thunderstorms Monday.

- Frontal passage Tuesday/Tuesday night will bring numerous
  showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area.

The weakened front will linger to our north on Monday, so another
round of afternoon/evening scattered showers and thunderstorms that
will favor the W/NW counties is expected. The environment on Monday
will continue to feature good instability and strong daytime
heating, and SPC has placed the NW portion of our forecast area in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather once again. While steering flow
will still be on the weaker side, it is forecast to pick up some by
Monday afternoon which will hopefully help lessen any threat of
flash-flooding, though it cannot be fully ruled out. As convection
wanes overnight, temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 70s.

Another front will advance towards our area from the west Monday
night. The passage of this front is not expected until later in the
afternoon and partly cloudy skies and lower rain chances are
forecast for Tuesday morning. This will allow temperatures to still
reach the lower to mid 90s, making for one last oppressively hot day
(for now). As the front approaches the area on Tuesday, it will help
pull even higher PW values into the region which should provide for
more organized and higher coverage of convection by the
afternoon/evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will move through the area Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday
morning as the front pushes through.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 327 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Front may stall near VA/NC border, bringing increased rain
  chances to SE VA and NE NC Wednesday and Thursday.

- Lower dew points will bring some relief to the area.

Guidance is suggesting that the front will stall near the NC/ VA
border, which would bring increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC
Wednesday through potentially Thursday. The remainder of the area
looks to remain mostly dry as drier air moves in behind the front.
Though the front is on the weaker side in terms of airmass change,
temperatures are still expected to drop a few degrees on Wednesday
with highs in the upper 80s. Dew points are also expected to drop a
few degrees, which will finally bring some relief to the area. A
secondary front is forecast to move through Thursday or Friday,
dropping dew points further into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Upper
ridging will start to build across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by
late next week after the frontal passage, so temperatures will
quickly rebound back into the 90s by Thursday/Friday. Luckily, the
lower dew points look to linger through the weekend, and the heat
index is forecast to only reach the 90s Thursday through Saturday.
With ridging aloft and at the surface by late week, mostly dry
conditions are expected heading into the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals.
There is a chance for possible patchy fog at SBY early this morning,
but that should quickly dissipate after sunrise if it does develop.
Scattered convection is forecast for this afternoon and evening,
with the highest chances in the northern half of the local area.
Confidence was high enough to include PROB30 at both RIC and SBY
for -TSRA, but there was not enough confidence in the
development timing near the southern terminals to include
mention of storms at this time. Surface winds outside of any
convection will generally be light out of the SW through this
evening, with the exception of ORF where the wind direction this
afternoon will become more SE due to the influence of the sea
breeze.

VFR conditions are primarily expected through the middle of
next week. There is a chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms Monday,
with higher confidence/more coverage of showers/tstms Tuesday
ahead of a cold front. Chcs of aftn/evening showers/tstms
gradually push S with the cold front Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions through Monday (outside of
convection), with SCA conditions possible Tuesday/early Wednesday in
association with a stronger cold front.

Current surface analysis shows the lingering weak front has moved
north of the local waters. High pressure dominates from the south
and southeast, allowing benign marine conditions to continue. Winds
are currently light SSE at 5-10 kt, becoming more southerly tonight
and increasing slightly to 10-15 kt. Gradually shifting, winds will
become SW by tomorrow morning, remaining sub-advisory at 5-10 kt in
the morning to 10-15 kt in the afternoon. There is a slight chc of
convection developing over the waters tomorrow. Waves are currently
1-2 ft, with seas 3-4 ft. In combination of NE swell and 7-8 sec
periods, waves and seas will remain slightly elevated at 3-4 ft
through tonight. Seas and waves Sunday and Monday will remain below
SCA criteria at 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively.

Winds increase Monday afternoon ahead of the next frontal boundary.
Remaining out of the SW, late afternoon into early Tuesday, winds
are expected to increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. A low
end SCA is seems to be likely at this time, but will continue to
monitor the trends. Behind the front, waves may remain slightly
elevated, but sub-SCA conditions will return likely by Wednesday.

A Moderate Rip Current Risk remains in place today over the northern
waters, with Low Rip Risk through the weekend over southern
waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...KMC/LKB