071
FXUS61 KCLE 070606
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
206 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching from the northwest will stall across
far Northwest Ohio and Lake Erie tonight, before slowly pushing
southeast across the area on Monday. High pressure briefly
builds in from the northern Monday night into Tuesday. The front
will lift back into the area on Wednesday and waffle across the
region into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8:50 PM Update...
The cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms has been
making slower progression than expected as they are only just
now entering the I-75 corridor. In general, lowered PoPs by
about 10-30% through tonight. This trend towards slower timing
could lead to more favorable timing for convection tomorrow
afternoon, potentially with slightly better coverage and
favorable for marginal severe weather/flooding. Latest runs of
the HRRR have started to show quite a bit more convection that
the runs earlier today, perhaps lending to increasing confidence
in greater storm coverage.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front extends from central MI to northern IL this
afternoon, and is gradually pushing southeast. The front is
expected to stall near or just northwest of Toledo overnight
tonight before slowly sagging south-southeast across the area
through early Monday evening. Hot and humid conditions ahead of
the front, along with potential for showers and storms, are the
forecast foci for the near term period.

A few showers are attempting to develop across North Central OH
along a low-level theta-e gradient this afternoon. These have
been struggling given dry air aloft and minimal forcing, though
do carry some 20% POPs east-northeast across the Cleveland area
and eastern lakeshore through this evening. Otherwise, we are
starting to see some weak convection attempting to fire along
the leading edge of higher theta-e air over far Northwest OH,
with additional convection developing to the west-northwest
along and ahead of the cold front. A weak shortwave will glance
Northwest OH with a bit of large-scale forcing for ascent this
evening. Expect storms to gradually increase in coverage and
organization upstream through early this evening and push into
Northwest OH. Am not expecting storms to maintain their
intensity for long after sunset as the weak shortwave begins
exiting east and as the low-levels begin to undergo nocturnal
stabilization. Given this, have likely (60-70%) POPs northwest
of a Findlay to Sandusky line, quickly decreasing to the east
and southeast. While some remnant convection will try pushing
farther east later this evening into tonight, especially closer
to the warm waters of Lake Erie, how far any measurable rain
gets is a question...hence the quick drop off in POPs. High
DCAPE and steep low-level lapse rates could support a marginal
downburst risk in Northwest OH through 9 or 10 PM if any
perkier cells make it in...however, weak forcing/minimal shear
will be working against any more of a severe threat than that.

The overnight hours will be mainly dry once any lingering
evening convection ahead of the front fizzles. Hang onto slight
chances (20%) for showers across Northwest OH and Lake Erie
overnight ahead of the front with a dry forecast elsewhere.

The front will start moving again on Monday, with a weak
shortwave crossing the region during the afternoon. Heating of a
very moist airmass (precipitable water values near 2.00") will
yield the development of 1000-2000 J/KG of uncapped MLCAPE by
midday or early afternoon ahead of the front. This uncapped
instability, more humid column, and forcing with the front and
shortwave should allow showers and storms to start developing by
late morning or early afternoon, with coverage and organization
peaking across far eastern OH and into interior northwestern PA
before exiting to the east-southeast into the evening hours.
Maintained likely to categorical (60-80%) POPS from interior
North Central and Northeast OH into inland Northwest PA, with
POPs decreasing to the northwest. There remains some question
regarding the coverage and organization of showers/storms. The
general synoptic setup supports the high POPs. However, the 12z
HRRR presented an alternative idea, focusing development along
a pre-frontal theta-e gradient from far eastern OH into western
PA, mainly southeast of our area. Most other CAMs have greater
coverage, though will need to monitor that possibility. The
thermodynamics won`t be super supportive of severe weather on
Monday, though the higher-end CAPE scenario when combined with
up to 25kt of deep-layer shear could produce an isolated wet
microburst threat. This is covered by an SPC Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5). Mean west-southwest flow aloft, paralleling the
front, along with the moist profiles could support isolated
training convection with torrential rates. We`ve dried out
lately, though can`t rule out isolated flash flooding if
training plays out in an urban or prone area.

Temperatures are pushing into the low to mid 90s across much of
the area this afternoon, though dew points mainly in the 60s are
keeping heat index values below 100. It will be warm and muggy
tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s for most of the area.
Highs on Monday will generally reach the low to mid 80s, with
very muggy conditions persisting until the front crosses. Dry
weather is expected Monday night once the front exits, with lows
dipping into the 60s. Patchy fog is possible late Monday night
as winds decouple with weak high pressure building in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly dry weather is expected on Tuesday as the front stalls
across the northern Ohio Valley. Hang onto a 20% POP across our
southern fringes (i.e. Mt. Vernon and Youngstown) as there`s
some uncertainty regarding where the front stalls, though most
guidance keeps our entire area rain-free. The front begins
lifting back north Wednesday and Wednesday night as a shortwave
digs into the upper Mississippi Valley and starts approaching
from the west. This will bring a return to greater humidity
along with chances for showers/storms, particularly Wednesday
afternoon and early evening. Forcing is still fairly modest on
Wednesday, so am not expecting more than isolated to scattered
coverage. The 12z NAM is a significant outlier, showing an
organized low pressure moving into the central Great Lakes on
Wednesday with much greater instability and shear locally. The
NAM appears to have suffered from convective feedback, as no
other model has nearly as robust of a solution with that low.

Tuesday will be a pleasant day with dew points cooling well into
the 60s and highs in the low to mid 80s...with parts of PA
possibly staying in the 70s. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s
Tuesday night, with perhaps a few upper 50s in interior PA. Dew
points start pushing into the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday with
highs generally in the mid 80s. Lows Wednesday night will be a
bit warmer, generally mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A generally zonal pattern is in store for the latter portions of
the work week and weekend, with general troughing over the
northern Plains/upper Midwest and New England and ridging over
the southern U.S. The frontal boundary that will lift back into
the area on Wednesday will waffle around through the weekend as
various weak shortwaves track along it. The long term will be
somewhat unsettled with occasional shower and storm chances. It
remains tricky to pin down the timing of the greatest rain
chances in what will be a weakly-forced pattern, so for now the
forecast remains rather generic with 30-50% type POPs in most
afternoons and generally lower POPs at night. There is some
agreement that the front will lift north Friday and Friday night
ahead of a shortwave digging into the Upper Midwest, before
pushing back south Saturday or Saturday night as that shortwave
pushes through the northern Great Lakes. That could lead to a
window of greater rain potential Saturday or Saturday night.
Otherwise, temperatures will be near to a bit warmer than normal
(with the warmest temperatures expected for the weekend) with a
fair amount of humidity through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Coverage of showers across NW Ohio in the vicinity of a front
continue to decrease with VFR conditions with scattered clouds in
place across the area. A cold front extends from southern
Ontario, to near Detroit, and southwest to Fort Wayne at 06Z.
This front will slowly move southeast across northern Ohio and
NW Pennsylvania today, reaching CLE towards 14Z and CAK towards
20Z before exiting to the southeast. Warm and moist conditions
both ahead of and along the front will support showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall this afternoon. Have
showers returning to FDY/ERI towards 15Z, and CLE around 17Z.
Thunderstorms today will likely have IFR visibilities, possibly
dropping to below a mile at times. Rain will increase along the
SW to NE oriented front around 16Z with generally widespread
showers and thunderstorms likely to impact MFD/CAK/YNG. Included
winds gusting to 20 knots with thunderstorms but there is a low
potential for thunderstorms to produce winds as high as 40-50
knots. Will need to update TAFs as thunderstorms start to fill
in this afternoon to reflect better timing. Otherwise winds will
shift from southwesterly ahead of the front to northerly behind
it. Most locations will experience an MVFR deck behind the
front but could start to see some IFR developing towards 06Z
given lingering moist conditions, especially where heavy rain
falls today.

Outlook...Non-VFR with low ceilings and possibly fog may linger
into Monday night. Non-VFR will be possible with scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday, especially
during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves of 3 feet or less and wind speeds of 5 to 15 knots are
expected on Lake Erie through this Friday. A high pressure ridge
exits SE`ward from the Lake Erie region before a wavy cold front
drifts SE`ward across the lake tonight through Monday night.
Primarily S`erly to SW`erly winds persist ahead of the front and
veer to NW`erly with the front`s passage. Farther behind the
front, winds veer to N`erly to NE`erly as a ridge attempts to
build from northern ON. On Tuesday through Friday, winds are
expected to be variable in direction since the aforementioned
front should waver in a north-south manner between the Upper and
Mid OH Valley and Lake Erie as multiple weak surface lows move
generally E`ward along the front. Simultaneously, the
aforementioned ridge should continue to attempt to build from
eastern Canada. Winds should trend onshore during the late
morning through early evening hours of Tuesday through Friday,
respectively, due to lake breeze development.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Jaszka