Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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758 FXUS64 KCRP 091755 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1255 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Key Message: A Heat Advisory is in effect again today across Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces, and Jim Wells Counties with Heat Indices up to around 110 Aloft, a mid-level high remains over the western Gulf/Mexico with a low centered over UT. Several impulses and shortwaves will eject from the low and help to nudge a cold front southward across the Southern Plains and eventually our CWA. This will also introduce moisture across the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere increasing our rain chances this weekend. PWAT`s will drop to around normal or slightly below (mean ~1.35") average for this time of year, plus the CAP that is in place will preclude any convection across South Texas today. At the surface, expecting light winds today to start out as onshore flow then veering to the northwest by the afternoon in response to an approaching dryline from the west. The dryline is expected to stall late this afternoon somewhere along the inland Coastal Bend and the Coastal Plains before retreating back west as the sea breeze kicks in late this afternoon. The aforementioned weak cold front approaches our CWA early Friday morning and FROPA is expected to slowly make its way south across the region throughout the day Friday and is expected to reach the coast late Friday/early Saturday preceded by a northeasterly wind shift. Operational models still struggling a bit with timing as the GFS basically brings the front straight through while the NAM has it slowly reaching the southern coast by 15Z Saturday. Moisture is expected to hover around normal levels during this time and have opted to keep in a low chance (15-20%) out west for precipitation and thunderstorms during the day Friday. Temperatures today will once again pose a moderate to major risk for heat-related impacts. Heat indices have a low to moderate chance (20-60%) of exceeding 110 degrees across portions of the Coastal Bend and the Coastal Plains this afternoon and a Heat Advisory is in effect until 7 PM for inland Nueces, inland Kleberg and Jim Wells counties. The heat index is progged to top out around 110 degrees for a few hours this afternoon. Please consider several ways to stay safe in the heat: if outside, have access to an air conditioned space to take breaks from the heat, drink plenty of water, wear loose-fitting light colored clothing and avoid being outside during the hottest part of the afternoon. Friday will be cooler with afternoon air temperatures ranging in the 80s to mid 90s and heat indices topping out around 100 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Key Messages: Cooler on Saturday in the wake of a front Low to medium chances for showers and storms this weekend Overall, not too much change with this long term forecast update. A cold front will stall just south of the region Friday night. It will slowly retreat north as a warm front through the day Saturday with moisture gradually increasing behind it. An upper level low positioned over the Four Corners will help maintain a southwesterly flow aloft. We will see several shortwaves eject through the southwesterly flow over the course of the weekend. As a result, chances for showers and thunderstorms steadily increase Saturday through Monday. Our best chances come Sunday and Monday as the upper level low moves closer to the region. Looking ahead to next week, models generally dry us out due to lack of any low level forcing. However, we may see a couple impulses rotate through the generally west-northwesterly flow aloft. Therefore, can`t rule out the low chance of some convection developing during the afternoon/evening hours through the middle of the week. "Cooler" temperatures are in store for Saturday as temps struggle to make it out of the 80s. Relief does not last long as we begin to warm back up Sunday. Triple digits re-enter the forecast out west by Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Clouds are clearing to the northeast, leading to VFR ceilings across all sites with the exception at VCT where MVFR ceilings linger just a tad longer. Hazy conditions due to near-surface smoke from fires in Central America continue to impact portions of South Texas, leading to a 4-6 SM vsby reduction at times. Low ceilings redevelop tonight along with patchy fog in advanced of an approaching weak `cold` front. At least MVFR ceilings will brush over South Texas with lowering ceilings as you near the coast, IFR/LIFR potential over VCT/CRP from 08-14Z. The weak front will push through the area in the morning, resulting in NE winds around 12 knots and gusts around 20 knots and a potential break in the haze near the end of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Weak onshore flow will continue this morning through tonight with some patchy fog possible. In addition to patchy fog, residual smoke from Central America will continue to cause hazy conditions across South Texas ahead of our next front. The cold front is expected to move offshore Friday morning resulting in a northeasterly weak to moderate flow. Weak to moderate northeast winds Friday night will strengthen to moderate to strong Saturday as it shifts to the east. A weak to moderate southeasterly flow returns early next week. A low chance of showers and storms on Saturday increases to a low to medium chances for Sunday and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 76 89 75 / 0 0 10 10 Victoria 93 73 90 70 / 0 0 10 0 Laredo 108 76 95 74 / 0 0 20 20 Alice 102 75 92 72 / 0 0 10 10 Rockport 88 76 88 75 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 104 76 92 74 / 0 0 10 10 Kingsville 101 76 90 74 / 0 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 90 78 87 76 / 0 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ241>243. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....TC AVIATION...EMF/94