039
FXUS65 KFGZ 081117
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
417 AM MST Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Below normal temperatures will continue through the
end of the week, with near/above afternoon highs returning over
the weekend. Typical spring-like breezy will remain through the
forecast period, with slight chances for precipitation across some
areas Friday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A zonal flow will be present aloft thanks to a
elongated low remaining over the Northern Plains. This pattern
will slowly increase our temperatures through the end of the week,
but the majority of our CWA will have afternoon highs staying a
few degrees below-normal for this time of year. Winds will revert
to seasonal breezes for the next few days too.

Model guidance (ECMWF, GFS, NAM) is slowly beginning to agree on a
closed low forming off the backside of this elongated low by
Friday. Although impacts are currently forecast to be minimal with
this set-up, there will be an increase in moisture over Arizona.
There is higher confidence that this moisture will present itself
as cloud cover, but slight precipitation chances are not out of
the question. If showers do become more likely, best chances
appear to be along our Utah and New Mexico border. Wind speeds
are forecast to increase, but look to remain well below any
advisory thresholds.

By the weekend, a ridge is expected to form on-top of this
incoming closed low, creating a Rex Block pattern. This synoptic
pattern will assist with increasing temperatures through the
beginning of next week, where daytime highs should return to
above-normal. There is still uncertainty with how these synoptic
patterns will ultimately shake out, so check back for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 08/12Z through Thursday 09/12Z...VFR
continues with light winds less than 10 kts. W-SW winds
increasing to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts between 18Z-02Z.
Areas just SW of higher terrain will see NE drainage winds
developing by 04Z Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/12Z through Saturday 11/12Z...VFR conditions
with light and variable winds overnight. Daytime winds W-SW 10-20
kts with gusts up to 25 kts between 18Z-02Z each day. Areas just SW of
higher terrain may see NE drainage winds to 15kts each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Cool but dry conditions
expected through Thursday. Southwest winds 10-20 mph each afternoon,
becoming light and variable overnight.

Friday through Sunday...Gradually warming temperatures, becoming
slightly above normal by the weekend. Afternoon southwest winds
10-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph each day. Winds become more
westerly on Sunday. Light and variable winds at night, with some
easterly drainage winds through mid-morning. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible each afternoon, mainly across northern and
eastern zones.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff