Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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546 FXUS64 KMEG 081125 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 625 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A cold front will move into the Mid-South tonight. Ahead of the cold front, thunderstorms will develop and move across the region. Some of the thunderstorms are expected to be severe with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes possible tonight. The cold front will move into central Mississippi on Thursday with scattered thunderstorms confined to portions of north Mississippi. High pressure will build into the region by Friday with dry weather and below normal temperatures for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South early this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. A frontal boundary currently extends across southeast Missouri through western Arkansas and into southern Oklahoma. A severe thunderstorm is moving across central Arkansas at this time and a Tornado Watch remains in effect for portions of Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel, west Tennessee and northwest Mississippi until 6 AM CDT this morning. The thunderstorms in Arkansas will move into the Mid-South and eventually weaken later this morning. The frontal boundary will start moving east this afternoon with more thunderstorms expected to form ahead of the front and move into the region. Some of the thunderstorms that form this afternoon could be severe. Temperatures will be quite warm today with highs in the 80s. The cold front will move into the Mid-South tonight. Additional thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front and move through the region. Some of these thunderstorms are expected to be severe with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes possible. In addition, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the northeast portion of the Mid-South. A Flood Watch has been issued for this area from 7 AM CDT this morning until 7 AM CDT Thursday morning. Temperatures will remain warm tonight with lows Thursday morning in the mid to upper 60s. The cold front will move into central Mississippi on Thursday with scattered thunderstorms possible over southern sections of the Mid-South into Thursday night. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 80s. Cooler and drier air will start to move into northern sections of the Mid- South Thursday night with rain ending across portions of north Mississippi. High pressure will build into the region on Friday bringing a period of dry weather and below normal temperatures for Friday through Sunday. An upper level low will move across the southern Plains on Monday and across the region on Tuesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible both days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 In the short term, a cluster of TSRAs over east-central AR will likely impact MEM over the next 1-2 hrs. Otrw expect low clouds this morning gradually improving to VFR early this afternoon. Gusty SSW winds are expected today. As the weak boundary across the region lifts north as a warm front scattered TSRAs may develop across the MKL area this afternoon. A line of strong to severe storms will push SE across the entire region overnight. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TNZ003-004-021-022. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS AVIATION...SJM