Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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623 FXUS64 KSJT 110526 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1226 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The visible satellite imagery was showing scattered to broken mid to high level clouds across the area this afternoon with a few showers and thunderstorms east of a Sweetwater to Junction line. Temperatures are much cooler than yesterday. Looks quiet tonight across the area with just some clouds. Weather gets more active on Saturday as an upper level disturbance will combine with overrunning/low level upslope flow and PW values increasing to 1.25 to 1.5 inches for showers and thunderstorms from late morning through the afternoon. There is a medium to high chance of rain across much of the area. Localized rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are possible mainly across the northern Concho Valley and western half of the Big Country. Also, an isolated strong to marginal severe storm or two are possible across the Northern Edwards Plateau and western Concho Valley during the late afternoon and evening due to better elevated instability and some vertical wind shear. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Temperatures will remain on the cool side. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Active weather pattern will continue into Sunday. An upper level low over the Rockies will emerge into the Plains by Monday evening. Additional disturbances in the southwest flow aloft are forecast to move overhead Saturday night into Sunday leading to additional rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Enough instability and shear will be available (MU CAPE values greater than 2000 J/KG and bulk shear values near 40 knots) for a few storms to be strong to marginally severe with large hail the main hazard. The upper level low will continue moving off to the east with just a slight of chance of showers and thunderstorms across our eastern counties on Monday. Tuesday looks quiet as shortwave ridging builds in over west central Texas. The next storm system is then forecast to impact the Plains around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. This will bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms along with the potential for another round of severe weather. Dry weather then returns for Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR ceilings expected to continue through mid to late morning. Chances for showers increase with increasing winds by midday Saturday. The most likely chance of thunderstorms looks to be in the afternoon and potentially late evening as well. Better timing of thunderstorms can be anticipated in later forecasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 59 76 61 / 60 40 90 20 San Angelo 75 62 85 62 / 60 50 60 10 Junction 82 66 86 66 / 30 50 50 20 Brownwood 75 61 75 64 / 40 40 90 20 Sweetwater 71 59 78 61 / 70 50 80 10 Ozona 76 64 85 61 / 50 50 30 20 Brady 76 63 78 66 / 40 50 80 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...SK