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000
FXUS65 KSLC 110937
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
337 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure building into the area will result in a
drying and warming trend which will continue through the remainder
of the week. A weak wave may bring some high-based convection to
the area on Friday, followed by another storm system arriving
late in the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)...Satellite imagery
suggests a broad ridge over much of the Great Basin and
southwestern US that will continue to shift eastward, bringing
continued warm and dry conditions. As the ridge axis moves
overhead this afternoon, flow will gradually become more
southwesterly ahead of the next trough currently pushing southward
from the Gulf of Alaska. Warm-air advection along this
southwesterly flow will bring highs today to 5-10 degrees above
yesterday, with further warming expected for Friday.

Temperatures are expected to peak on Friday, with most areas
reaching 10-15 degrees above normal...translating to the upper-70s
along the Wasatch Front, low-70s across the Wasatch Back and
central valleys, and mid-80s in St. George and near Lake Powell.
There`s even a low (17%) chance of reaching the record daily
maximum at KSLC, though increasing mid- to high-level clouds will
likely be the limiting factor here despite breezy southerly flow.

Additionally, on Friday, a subtle wave may bring some high-based
convection to the area, mainly across the higher terrain of
northwestern Utah. Showers will remain isolated at best due to a
lack of available moisture. Model soundings do look primed for
dry microburst potential, should any showers actually develop
during the afternoon and early evening.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday)...Mild southerly flow will
prevail across the forecast area Saturday, while an upstream low off
the CA coast begins to spread inland. Slight cooling aloft
associated with the approaching low will knock a couple of degrees
off max temps Saturday. Despite this, temperatures will continue to
run nearly 15F above climo across northern/central valleys including
the Wasatch Front, where temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s.
Southern valleys will run closer to 7-10F above climo with low
80s forecast across the low deserts of southern Utah.

The timing and evolution of the upstream low is beginning to come
into better focus, with roughly 2/3rds of ensemble members favoring
a slightly slower evolution featuring an initial shortwave lifting
north across NV early Sunday, followed by the remnant low digging
through the lower Colorado River Valley greater Desert Southwest
region Sunday night through Monday. This scenario keeps much of the
forecast area dry through Sunday as the initial ejecting wave remains
west across Nevada. The greatest precip chance comes late Sunday
night/Monday as the deformation axis associated with the passing low
to the south crosses the forecast area. Given the relatively weak
nature of the synoptic forcing, looking at a high PoP/low QPF precip
event. Still some potential (33%) a faster but more consolidated low
ejects across the area later Sunday into Sunday night which would
tend to favor northern Utah, but this scenario is looking less
likely.

In the wake of this early week wave, a much colder trough is
forecast to dig into the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies region
Monday/Tuesday. Whether this trough amplifies across the Interior
West through the middle of the week, having fairly significant
impact on the forecast area, or quickly lifts out of the region with
limited impact, remains uncertain with a broad range of solutions
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southeasterly winds are likely to transition
to light and northwesterly around 19-20z today, though there is a
40% chance that this occurs as late as 22z. VFR conditions will
prevail.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Light, diurnally-driven
winds are expected today, with prevailing VFR conditions.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for UTZ125.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Cunningham/Seaman

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity