337
FXUS65 KSLC 262050
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
250 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue
through at least the weekend, with the potential for a moisture
surge arriving next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...Warm, dry conditions are
in store through Friday night as very gradual mid-level height
rises will occur in response to a ridge of high pressure
strengthening across the Four Corners into early next week. By
Friday, temperatures will rise into the 5F-15F above normal range
for late June. Other than locally breezy conditions (20-25 mph)
across southern Utah, winds will largely be light and terrain-
driven.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday), Issued 408 AM MDT...
Long term forecast period begins with a fairly robust ridge
serving as the dominant synoptic element across most of the Four
Corners region. With the ridge in close proximity, afternoon highs
through the weekend will run around 5-10 degrees above
climatological normal, pushing closer to and peaking around 10-15
degrees above normal on Monday. While generally expected to be
placed north of the forecast area, the northern jet looks to maybe
dip just far enough southward at times to bring some low end
moisture across portions of northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.
The subsident nature of the strong ridge should preclude much in
the way of widespread activity, but wouldn`t entirely rule out a
shower or two trying to develop, especially off of some of the
high terrain, or in areas further northwest in Utah where the
ridge`s effects will be slightly weaker. Given how limited
moisture would be overall, if anything does develop, inverted-V
type vertical profile would support gusty outflow winds.

Aside from temperatures likely peaking Monday, models also support a
trough starting to push inland through the Pacific coast. The
placement of the ridge and this trough in turn appear favorable to
allow a bit more of a moisture tap to set up within the southerly
flow. While the nearby ridge should still provide a subsident
effect, the extra moisture and strong diurnal heating once again may
be sufficient to develop some isolated high based convection across
higher terrain. With the higher based nature, this would also once
again support a gusty outflow wind threat for anywhere in reasonable
vicinity to this convection. There is loose model consensus on
continuing this moisture advection into Tuesday, with an uptick in
convective potential noted accordingly.

Confidence in the evolution of the forecast moving further through
the week dips, but there is some semblance of a potential pattern
shift, or at least more of a continuation of the more active
pattern. Deterministic models and ensembles do not really shift this
trough through the forecast region, rather keeping it more or less
extending through the Great Basin. With the ridge also shifting
minimally, some sort of moisture tap within the southerly flow would
be retained, if not enhanced further from an active eastern Pacific.
This monsoonal type circulation would then support a continuation of
daytime convection, with activity likely becoming more widespread if
the pattern indeed develops. As of now the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day
precipitation outlooks lean in favor of above normal precipitation
across the entirety of the forecast region, which certainly marks a
change from the prolonged stretch of largely dry weather observed as
of late. Given the potential for impacts related to events
associated with the upcoming 4th of July holiday, it`ll certainly be
something to monitor in regards to how the forecast continues to
trend.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Winds are expected to switch northwesterly
between 21-22z, but a 20% chance exists southerly winds will
persist. Outside of the winds, operational weather concerns will
remain minimal with VFR conditions under largely clear skies.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
across the airspace outside of areas downstream of large wildfires
in the south. For those isolated areas (eg BCE) overnight stability
will continue to settle surface smoke producing localized IFR/LIFR
conditions. Diurnal winds with modest pm southerly gusts during the
peak heating hours will continue throughout the valid TAF period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and very dry conditions will continue through
at least Monday, with both minimum RH and overnight recoveries
continuing to trend lower. Temperatures will also gradually warm
through Monday, when the warming trend will level off at 10F to
20F above normal for late June. Slightly enhanced winds across
southeastern Utah on Friday afternoon will result in elevated to
isolated near-critical fire weather conditions where fuels are
critical, with wind gusts to 20-25 mph expected. Otherwise, winds
should remain relatively light through the weekend.

The pattern remains favorable for a push of monsoonal moisture by
early to the middle of next week, with some associated
improvement in humidity, particularly overnight recoveries.
Confidence in specific details such as timing is still low, but
the threat for isolated dry thunderstorms and dry microbursts
(favoring gusty and erratic outflow winds) is there, particularly
with the initial onset of moisture. Often with these surges, this
transitions into more of a local heavy rain threat after the
initial push, but this is a detail that has yet to be resolved.
Additionally, adding to the uncertainty, the latest guidance has
trended slightly drier with the monsoonal moisture surge next
week. We`ll continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as
necessary as we approach next week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

ADeSmet/Warthen/Merrill

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