Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 310228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STORM TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM
SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS 6 PM TONIGHT UNTIL
11 AM SATURDAY...

AS OF 928 PM EST...A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...A STRONG NW FLOW
IS IN PLACE AT BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVELS. WITH DIMINISHING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IS BASICALLY DONE
ACROSS THE GREENS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LOOKS TO HAVE FINISHED.

ELSEWHERE...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE
COUNTY AND INTO THE HELDERBERGS. THESE HAVE WEAKENED AS WELL...AND
ARE BASICALLY NO MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES AT THIS TIME. THESE LOOK
TO END SHORTLY DUE TO THE LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING
OUT FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BTWN THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OH VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENING S/SE OF
NOVA SCOTIA. THE H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55+KTS...H925 WINDS
30-50 KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 30-35+ KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S/SE. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE. H850
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -15C TO -20C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND -12C TO -15C SOUTH AND EAST.

OUR MIN TEMPS FAVOR THE COLDER METMOS VALUES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO OVER THE SRN DACKS....ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...LAKE
GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT WEST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND
BERKS.  EXPECT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE READINGS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.

THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OR
APPARENT TEMPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SRN DACKS...AND 15 TO 29 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA.

TOMORROW...NASTY WIND CHILLS CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM.  THE CYCLONE BECOMES OCCLUDED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  THE SFC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA.  THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE SPARSE CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
W/NW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FILLS AND HEADS
NORTHWARD AND ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKENING AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES
ARE OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND NOT BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE
SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MUCH WEAKER
WINDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
SNOW RATIOS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREAD IN THEIR
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS. THERE IS MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AND DOES NOT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS
WELL OFFSHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FOR ALBANY RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2
INCHES UP TO AROUND 10 INCHES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF HAVE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SEGMENTED AS FOLLOWS...

SIGNIFICANT (WARNING LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS.

MODERATE (ADVISORY LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LIGHT TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE...DUE TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
CLIPPER STORM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...SO ANY FORCING WILL ONLY BE WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD/ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MINS LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT BEHIND IT.

ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COASTAL WAVE LOOK TO BE MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO -10 TO 10 ABOVE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY. IT LOOKS
FAIRLY COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS AT
OR BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THURS/FRI...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AT THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOWFALL. THIS
SNOW LOOKS TO END AT KPSF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE AS WELL. ANY REMAINING CLOUDS FOR THE
TAF SITES LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING
OF AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT STILL REMAIN AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE
TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA






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