Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 032354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
754 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


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