Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 030519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE THE
SHOWERS AND LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOMORROW TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT...THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. THE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUITE QUICKLY...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WILL EXIT OUR EASTERN AREAS BEFORE 400 AM.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ON ITS HEELS...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 60S TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...AND WILL DROP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z THU...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF
WHERE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. BY
DAYBREAK ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR AS WIND SHOULD PREVENT
ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING...AFT 1230Z SKIES WILL MAINLY BE SCT040
SCT100. FOG IS PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z AT KGFL AND KPOU
WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY BE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AT 5-10KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL/BGM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







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