Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 081138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND
980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN
UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE
COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST
CT...AND FAR SOUTHERN RI/MASS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD...AND REACH INTO NW CT BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE 10Z 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW
CT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MAY WIND UP BEING IN THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS LATER TODAY. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM
OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY
OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...11Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND KPOU AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP OR EVEN ENDS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS....HOWEVER
SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA


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