Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 020545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV



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