Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 010001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
810 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM...CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS OUR REGION...SO
FAR...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOME LOWER STRATUS CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

IT WAS STILL MILD OUT WITH MANY VALLEYS ENJOYING TEMPERATURES
AROUND 60...MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WAS LIGHT TO NORTHEAST UNDER 10 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH
THE 50S.

OVERNIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN.
RAIN...WHICH WAS STILL LOCATED WELL TO SOUTHWEST IN WESTERN
PA...WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE
ELSE IN OUR REGION.


THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY MIDDAY
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA (FA) WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN
INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNINGTUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN TUES EVNG.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL ENCROACH THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE EARLIER...SO WE ASSIGNED
A VCSH TO THE TAFS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z.

BY 14Z-15Z WE REDUCE ALL FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS WE EXPECTED
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THEN. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
FOR OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR (MAINLY CIGS) BUT FOR NOW HELD
CONDITIONS TO MVFR (LOW MVFR AT KPSF REQUIRING EXTRA FUEL).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



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