Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 230800
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
400 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a departing cold front, cooler and less humid air will move
into the region today with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Mainly dry
and comfortable weather is expected for the rest of the week and
into the weekend with temperatures generally a little below normal
levels for late August.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT...Surface cold front is just about to cross
into eastern NY from central NY. These is a noticeable drop in
dewpoints behind this front, with dewpoint already into the mid
to upper 50s across central NY, while it remains muggy across
our area. A few lingering light rain showers remain in a few
spots just ahead of the front. Any showers will end over the
next few hours as the front crosses the area from west to east,
and more drier air will start to work into the region.

Although skies are currently mostly cloudy, clearing is seen
upstream on IR satellite imagery behind the front. Once the
front moves through, skies should quickly become fairly clear.

During the day today, skies will be partly to mostly sunny and
there will be a gusty westerly breeze. Dewpoints will fall
throughout the day into the 50s. Daytime temps will be
noticeably cooler than yesterday with highs only in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly dry and comfortable weather is expected through the short
term period.

A large upper level trough will be situated over the Northeast
for tonight through Friday night. With lower heights and cool
temps aloft, temps will generally be below normal. Despite the
upper trough, it looks to be mainly precip-free, as the air mass
is rather dry. Cannot totally rule out a stray lake-enhanced
shower or sprinkle for Thursday or Friday for the Mohawk Valley
or Adirondacks (mainly during the times of peak heating) due to
the cyclonic flow in place, but any shower would be very light,
brief and fairly isolated in coverage. Otherwise, expected
comfortable and dry weather. Sky cover will generally be mostly
clear to partly cloudy through the period. Daytime temps will
be in the 70s, with overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s in
the high terrain to the mid 50s in valley areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fair weather with slightly below normal temperatures.

Canadian high pressure at the surface settles in over the Great Lakes
region and the Northeast over the weekend into early next week.
An upper level trough will remain over region through the weekend
with guidance in better agreement that some ridging should build in
early next week.

Temperatures expected to run around 5 degrees below normal with highs
generally in the mid 60s to mid 70s and lows in mid 40s to mid 50s.
It will be a bit cooler across the higher terrain of the western
Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern Green Mountains of Vermont.
Humidity levels will be comfortable with dew points in the 40s and
lower to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front is making its way across the local area early this morning
and will move off to the east by sunrise. With the passage of the
front a drier and cooler airmass will be ushered in along with fair
weather. The upper level low associated with the cold front will
move northeastward across eastern Canada today with short waves
rotating about it keeping the region under cyclonic flow aloft.

Some MVFR conditions mainly due to ceilings is possible early this
morning ahead and in the vicinity of the cold front otherwise
VFR conditions for the TAF period; 06Z/Thursday with decreasing
cloud cover.

Southwest to west winds will shift more to the west with passage of the
cold front. The westerly flow will become gusty by this afternoon
with gusts up to 20 knots. Winds will weaken late in the day into
the evening.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Behind a departing cold front, cooler and less humid air will
move into the region today. RH values will mainly be 45 to 60
percent this afternoon with west winds of 10 to 20 mph.

After morning dew on Thursday, RH values will fall to 45 to 55
percent with northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. Dry weather is
expected for the next few days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next five days.

Showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday allowed for some very minor
rises on rivers and streams, mainly smaller creeks. With dry
weather expected today, river levels will recede or remain
steady.

No precipitation is expected through the weekend, which will
allow for river levels to hold steady.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KENX radar will likely be down through at least Friday,
September 1st for the bull gear replacement. We are waiting for
a ROC maintenance team and parts to arrive to assist local
technicians with the repairs.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY


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