Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 271807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. A SMALL AREA OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES WAS USED FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS PM INTO TONIGHT...

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN NO SNOW IS ICCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN SNOWING AT KPSF
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT
VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY STAFF










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