Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 230554

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1254 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

A storm system will gather strength in the southeast U.S tonight,
before emerging off the mid-Atlantic coast by Monday. This
system looks to bring significant precipitation to much of the
region from Monday through Tuesday. Colder air will filter in
tonight, with a few spotty light showers of mixed precipitation.
Steadier precipitation will spread from south to north across
the region on Monday, becoming heaviest Monday night and
diminishing late Tuesday. The best chance for accumulating snow
and ice will be within the higher terrain of the Adirondacks,
Catskills, Berkshires, and southern Greens. However, lighter
accumulations of snow and sleet are likely even in valley areas.
Gusty easterly wind will also occur as the coastal storm
continues to strengthen just south of New York City Monday night
into Tuesday. The storm will finally pull away from the region
Tuesday night.


Area blanket by clouds as have abundant low level moisture
trapped under an inversion, Light precipitation that has been
occurring across portions of the area has diminished some. Have
pops decreasing overnight as ridging extending into region from
Quebec noses southward and aloft heights rise a bit. No big
change in temperatures overnight; made adjustments based on
observational data and latest guidance. Used top-down method for
precipitation types and basically have light rain and light
snow. Wind forecast on track with easterly flow increasing
overnight with gusty conditions across western New England into
the Taconics already.


A wind advisory is in effect for the Taconics and western New
England from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for areas from the Mohawk
Valley to the Berkshires south from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for the southern
Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region and southern Vermont
from 7 PM Monday until 10 PM on Tuesday.

A complex storm system will impact the region mainly later
Monday morning through Tuesday evening. The difficulty in the
forecast lies with what pcpn type will be predominant and where
it will fall and when. Some of the partial thickness values and
BUFKIT model soundings are indicating that a prolonged period of
sleet may occur from late Monday morning through much of the
day on Tuesday. Where some other guidance such as the SREF pcpn
type probabilities are showing some freezing rain especially
across the mountains. The surface low tracks east from western
North Carolina Monday morning to east of Cape Hatteras Monday
evening and then northeast to south of Long Island Tuesday
morning and into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday morning as the
upper low and trough axis swing through the region late Tuesday
providing additional QPF. The best way to sum up what is
expected to happen is by highlighting the periods of heaviest
precipitation which will be from Monday afternoon through Monday
night and the expected pcpn type and accumulations with mainly
a snow and ice event across the northern mountains with light
accumulation in the valleys. Valley areas can expect generally 1
to 3 inches of accumulation of mainly sleet with little ice
accretion, while the mountains can generally expect 2 to 6
inches of snow and sleet accumulation with a tenth of an inch or
so of ice. The higher terrain of southern Vermont may see up to
a quarter of an inch of ice while the western Adirondacks may
see up to 8 inches of snow and sleet accumulation. The
precipitation will diminish quickly Tuesday evening with
decreasing clouds overnight. One other potential problem will
be the strong southeast winds Monday into Monday night mainly
across the Taconics and western New England with wind gusts of
45 kts possible. The

Highs on Monday will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s with lows
Monday night in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Highs on Tuesday will be
in the 30s to around 40 with lows Tuesday night in the 20s.


Low pressure races from Chicagoland up through the Great Lakes and
southern Quebec Wednesday and Wednesday night.  The cold front
associated with it will rush through Wednesday night with scattered
showers of mixed precipitation which will taper off as snow showers
and flurries at most locations.  This will set the stage for lake
effect conditions that will persist through the remainder of the

A broad moisture pattern at first will allow for lake effect to
affect locations outside of the usual lake-effect-prone areas.
However...amounts will be mainly light...and probably not be all
snow.  By Saturday the activity will become more confined yet less
concerning...with the entire Hudson Valley free of any threat by
Sunday.  The pattern will keep skies mostly cloudy throughout...with
little more than occasional breaks from time-to-time.

Temperatures will continue to run well above normal but with a
cooling trend.  Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 30s to
mid 40s...but will be in only the lower 20s to upper 30s Saturday
and Sunday.  Overnight lows will range from mainly the upper 20s to
mid 30s Wednesday the mid teens to lower 20s by Saturday
night.  Albany`s normal high temperature for late January is in the
lower 30s...with the low in the mid teens.


Abundant low-level moisture trapped beneath an inversion will allow
for bkn-ovc cigs through the remainder of the night around 1500-3000
ft with MVFR conditions for most sites. Cannot rule out a
period of IFR cigs at the higher terrain site of KPSF for early
in the TAF period, but flying conditions generally look MVFR
towards sunrise. With the moisture around, also cannot totally
rule out a brief rain shower or patch of drizzle, but most hires
models suggest it should be rain-free for most of the time.
N-NE winds will pick up to 5-10 kts with a few higher gusts,
especially at KPSF.

During the day on Monday, it will continue to remain overcast with
cigs around 2-3 kft, allowing for continued MVFR conditions.  Precip
looks to hold off until the evening hours, so it should remain dry
through much of the day.  E-NE winds will increase to 10-15 kts with
some higher gusts at times.

Steady precipitation will arrive from south to north during the
evening hours.  Precip looks to begin as rain (perhaps mixing with
sleet) at KPOU by 00z.  It should reach KPSF by 01-02z, KALB by 02z
and KGFL by 04z.  At KPSF/KALB/KGFL, it looks to begin as a mix of
snow/sleet, with precip gradually becoming more and more snow at
KALB/KGFL towards 04z-06z. Some snow may even start to mix in at
KPOU towards 06z at times as well. Once snow/sleet begins, flying
conditions will become IFR for both vsbys and eventually cigs as
well. The precip may become moderate to brief heavy in intensity for
the late night hours as well, with the potential for LIFR
conditions. NE winds will continue to be strong with sustained winds
of 15-20 kts and gusts approaching 30 kts at times, mainly for


Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA...SN...SLEET.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN...RA...SN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.


Widespread precipitation will occur from Monday through
Tuesday, but there are still questions regarding the exact
precipitation type and amounts. The latest MMEFS only shows
potential for some minor tidal flooding at Poughkeepsie.
Otherwise, just within bank river rises are expected to occur,
as frozen precipitation will cut back on runoff potential.

Gradual cooling will occur through the rest of the week, with
chances for rain and/or snow showers through Thursday, and snow
showers from Friday into next weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.


CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Tuesday for CTZ001-013.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ032-033-041>043-082>084.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Tuesday for MAZ001-025.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
VT...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Tuesday for VTZ013>015.


NEAR TERM...IAA/11/Thompson
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.