Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 251132 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO INLAND LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR CIGS AT KMFE. CLOUD COVER WILL VARY FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING...WITH CIGS RISING TO AROUND 3000 BY NOON.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FORMATION WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLY GUSTY
WINDS AND LOWER VIS. WILL HOLD VCTS FOR THE MOMENT UNTIL
THUNDERSTORM TIMING IS BETTER KNOWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOBE SWEEPS AROUND
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 3000 AREAWIDE BY NOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERTED V SETUP...SO
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS. WILL
FOCUS FORECAST ON GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS TO THE NE
THIS EVENING...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE. RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE
EFFECT TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND SLOWLY
DECREASING MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW SIGNS OF A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH THE BUILDING OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MID LAYER RIDGE PRODUCES SUFFICIENT
SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS 700-500MB MOISTURE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES NIL
TO 10 PERCENT. CAN NOT RULE OUT ANY DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS OR
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER KENEDY AND BROOKS
COUNTY. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE MAIN HIGH CENTER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WEAKENS ITS HOLD AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS FOR OUR REGION TO BEGIN TO FEEL THE IMPACTS
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE VALUES DO NOT
INCREASE OR DEEPEN THAT MUCH A MORE ESE-E FLOW ALLOWS FOR A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. BEST CHANCES
LOOK TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER NORTH
TEXAS. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF 20 PERCENT WHICH IS JUST BELOW
MODEL CONSENSUS. LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE
AND CONSISTENCY REMAINS GOOD WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMER LIKE WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO
MID 90S INLAND WEST.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...GULF WATERS HAVE STABILIZED AT
AROUND 5 FEET AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS. BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL CHURN SEAS BACK UP
TO 5 TO 6 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FURTHER AFFECTED BY ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT...GRADIENT
RELAXES...WITH WINDS LOWERING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
RELAX AGAIN BACK TO AROUND 4 FEET.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST FLOW
BECOMES MODERATE MAINTAINING A MODERATE SEA. WINDS TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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