Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 122316 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
616 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WAS TO
INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE ADDITION OF ANOTHER PERIOD AT THE END...
OTHERWISE THE MAIN BODY OF THE TAFS WAS LEFT INTACT. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL FROM NOW THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
WITH THE ONLY AVIATION DIFFICULTY BEING THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT FOG FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW THIS
PHENOMENON TO OCCUR. AFTER SUNRISE...VFR WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS DEEP S TX ASSOCIATED TO THE SEA BREEZE THAT
MOVE IN EARLIER IN THE DAY. THIS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW AT
AROUND 15 MPH PRODUCING BRIEF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. INCLUDED 20 PERCENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY AND LOWER TO 10 PERCENT AFTER SUNSET.

TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BECOMING CALM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG AFTER 3 OR 4 AM IN THE MORNING
LOWERING VISIBILITIES IN SOME AREAS. DO NOT EXPECT A DENSE FOG AT
THIS TIME AS ABUNDANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO DRY THE SURFACE TODAY.
LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO LOW 70S.

SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA IN
THE PERIPHERY OF THE  HIGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD PUSHING DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...LATEST WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
A LOT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THIS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. DO
EXPECT THIS WEAK PERTURBATION TO MOVE WEST AND ENHANCE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH THE SEA BREEZE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MAV/MET AND ECMWF MAXES AND MINS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE IS PRETTY
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...STATUS QUO FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND THURSDAY THEN
AND INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

12Z MODEL PACKAGE REMAINS ON THE SAME TRACK SHOWING THE ANOMALOUS
COLD TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN UPSTREAM STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE MOVING
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS WED-FRIDAY. IT IS THIS POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT MIGHT PRODUCE A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME FOR
US LOCALLY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK BENIGN WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
SENSIBLE WEATHER. A WEAKENING INVERTED MID LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF BUT LIMITED MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR A ISOLATED
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY BE AT SEASONAL NORMALS BY THIS
TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO MID WEEK THE SPRING LIKE PATTERN TO TAKE OVER FOR
A FEW DAYS. LEE SIDE TROUGH/LOW TO BE INDUCED BY THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE. THE TROUGH/LOW TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO NE MEXICO WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A 30-40 KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET INDICATED.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING WIND CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
RGV AND A LITTLE LESSOR AS YOU TRAVEL NORTH AND WEST. AS MENTIONED
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NECESSARY. MORE
FINE TUNING ON THE WINDS IS LIKELY AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WED-THU AS THE THESE
STRONGER WINDS VEER S-SW FROM THE SURFACE TO 600MB WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TAKING SHAPE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
DOWNSLOPING COMPRESSING WIND BUMP 850MB TEMPS UP 22-24C. THAT
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO UPPER 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEY TO LOWER 100S IN
THE UPPER VALLEY. A FEW ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
VALLEY TO ACCOMMODATE THE LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES LITTLE CHANGE AT THIS TIME WITH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY REMAIN DRY. THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
OUTFLOW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS CONVECTION WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
UNDER THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW EVERYTHING
WILL PLAY OUT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN LINE WITH THE APPROACH
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE DIVERGENT FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE WITH GFS PUSHING PWAT VALUES OVER INCHES.
MEXMOS HAS BEGUN TO SHOW HIGHER POPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOWER ON
POPS THIS FAR SOUTH. FORECAST MAINTAINS SLIGHT CHANCES WITH ALL
AREAS OF THE CWA SEEING A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT MORE ADJUSTMENTS AS THIS HAS A POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL FOR AT LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW MORNING ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. SOME STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS
BUT WITH BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM OVER THE GULF WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SUBSTANTIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS TO REACH 20 KNOTS AND SEAS TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 7
FEET AT THAT TIME.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV



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