Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 230530 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH AN INVERSION AT 5000 FEET...LLVL MOISTURE HAS NOT
BEEN ABLE TO FOCUS NEARER TO THE SFC. THUS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AREAWIDE. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMIZED THROUGH
MIDMORNING WHEN DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT.
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.
LIGHT SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS RETURN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED OVER ZAPATA COUNTY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG
THE LAND BREEZE PRODUCED BY FALCON LAKE. HOWEVER... THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN JIM HOGG COUNTY
AS THE LAND BREEZE COLLIDED WITH THE SEABREEZE FRONT PUSHING WEST.
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING OVER WEBB COUNTY...HAVE
OPTED TO INDICATE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER BOTH THESE COUNTIES
OF THE BRO CWFA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST ALREADY
ISSUED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS WERE
MADE TO INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE FM230100 PERIOD BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING MFE...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE EAST AND
INCREASE MOMENTARILY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL DEGRADE INTO MVFR TERRITORY AS CEILINGS LOWER SLIGHTLY
WHILE SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH H5 RIDGING ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDING AND TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LESSER MOISTURE AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED
BELOW 5KFT. ELEVATED DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCALES. RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY
HELP TRIGGER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES TO THE
WEST...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THAT POTENTIAL CONVECTION TO MAKE
IT INTO THE RGV. MOSTLY CLOUDY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
PLAINS TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
MODERATE AND EVEN BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE H5 RIDGE WILL
COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...WITH WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST... FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE U.S. 77 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 90S
FAR WEST...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DEW POINTS AND LOW TEMPS UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BELOW THE CAP OR STABLE LAYER FOR THE
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THE NEXT TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DIFFLUENCE SPREADS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US...THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NO MENTION OF POPS. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN SEEING ANY OF THAT PRECIPITATION PENETRATING OUR CWA. THE
BOUNDARY MAY SINK DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY HWY 281 AND EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS DAYS 6-7 SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW ATTM.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS... WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS THERE AND MOVES EAST...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESPONDING TO THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW
END ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
INTO LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS RISE TO
AROUND 6 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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