Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190548
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A LOW AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. I WILL REMOVE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER NE OH AND NW PA. I WILL ADJUST THE
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS. A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF ALOFT. THE SHOWERS THREAT WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. THE FRONT WILL BE IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME KEPT IT JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE AM AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS ADVERTISING THE 850MB COLD POOL SETTLING SOUTH OVER NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKESHORE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS COOL SNAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ALREADY BY
THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS SCT-BKN030-040 WILL BE AROUND THIS
MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THEN THE DAY WILL BE VFR
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF CLEVELAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC






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