Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261452
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
952 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA
COAST...THEN MOVE UP THE EAST COAST LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY
DEEPENING INTO A NOREASTER. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THE SNOW WILL BE
TAPERING OFF BUT THEN AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH SOME FLURRIES
WILL LINGER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR CRAWFORD...WYANDOT AND MARION
COUNTIES AT 7 AM. THE SNOW IS VERY LIGHT THERE NOW. WILL LET THE
OTHER ADVISORIES EXPIRE AS PLANNED. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
THE DRIER AIR IS ERODING THE SNOW SHIELD AND THE SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST AND BECOME LIGHTER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE LINGERING INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT WILL
GENERATE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR THE SNOW TO LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS STILL EXPANDING ACROSS CRAWFORD AND ERIE
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DESPITE THE ICE ON LAKE ERIE
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE AT LEAST A
LITTLE MOISTURE AND SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER
FROM SANDUSKY TO CLEVELAND THIS MORNING.

THE NORTHEAST WIND IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW ALTHOUGH
THE DRIFTING WILL TYPICALLY DIMINISH WHEN THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AND
THERE IS NO NEW POWDER. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
HANCOCK COUNTY WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE OVER BEFORE DAYBREAK. WILL
LET THE ORIGINAL EXPIRATION TIME OF 7 AM STAND FOR WYANDOT... MARION
AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 9 AM AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR STARK AND
MAHONING COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE SNOW WILL LINGER IN MAHONING
COUNTY PAST NOON BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT BY THAT TIME.

THE SUN WILL COME OUT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY NEAR OR BELOW THE NAM/MET MOS GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ON TUESDAY. PATCHY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINING CLOUDS DISSIPATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW GUIDANCE ALL PERIODS. USED A COMBINATION
OF THE RAW MODEL SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS AND INTUITION TO TRY GUESS
THE BEST TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. TEMPS ON THE BUBBLE FOR SNOW OR RAIN BUT
COLDER AIR MOVING IN THU NIGHT SHOULD CHANGE ALL PRECIP TO SNOW.
MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD NOT BE VERY
HEAVY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON FRI SO THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT EXCEPT
FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHSN IN THE SNOWBELT.

ON THE WEEKEND...YET ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION BUT THIS TIME
IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR. THERE IS TIMING DIFFERENCES BY
THE MODELS ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW AND WHEN THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES
SO WILL USE SOME AVERAGING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN OH BY NOON THEN START
TO STALL WHICH MAY ALLOW SNOW TO LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING AT YNG
AND ERI. IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR AS
THE SNOW ENDS.

WINDS MAY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA
TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WHILE BECOMING NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE THRU THU
THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE NW THU NIGHT TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS A
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






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