Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 270501
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
101 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
High pressure will be nudged eastward on Saturday as a warm front
moves northward toward western Ohio Saturday evening. The warm front
should clear Lake Erie early Sunday morning. As low pressure tracks
across Ontario on Sunday it will drag a weak cold front across
the region. This boundary is then expected to stall over southern
Ohio on Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
It is the battle between the dryness at the surface versus the
moisture aloft over the western portions of the forecast area. The
latest HRRR model shows moisture streaming in aloft toward the
western quarter of the forecast area this evening. Meanwhile, dry
air is punching in from the northeast. At this point, I added a
low chance POP for the extreme west overnight for showers.
Dewpoint temperatures have climbed over the west over the last few
hours into the upper 60s. This should be enough to allow showers
to make it to the surface. However, I still think the dewpoints
will gradually lower at the surface overnight minimizing threat
for any showers. Otherwise, bumped up min temperatures a few
degrees...especially in the west where cloud cover will be
Weak high pressure will control the weather across the region
through the night. Less cloud cover and drier low levels of the
atmosphere will allow for a cooler night. Most locations should
dip into the lower to mid 60s. A few upper 50s may occur across
inland NW PA.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front will move back toward the region from the lower Ohio
River Valley by Saturday evening. This will bring increasing
moisture and instability toward NW OH. Still some uncertainty
about how much convection will reach NW OH but believe it
warrants a chance mention. The warm front will attempt to move
north of Lake Erie early on Sunday but as low pressure tracks
eastward across Ontario on Sunday it will push another weak cold
front toward the region. At this point in time it appears that the
thunderstorms will be scattered in coverage, 30-50 pops. The cold
front may not clear the southern County Warning Area until late
Monday afternoon. So will linger some chance pops across the
Saturday into Sunday should be warm and humid with highs in the
upper 80s. A few locations may touch 90. Cooler on Monday as the
drier air slowly returns. Highs Monday will dip to mid 80s across
the north. However the front will take its time crossing southern
areas with highs remaining in the upper 80s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday will be hot and humid...with a large flat ridge over most of
the CONUS. Removed mention of any chance of afternoon convection as
700MB temp of 8c will be too capped. Models continue with a weak
surface front moving across the area on Wednesday...so dry that just
left very low chance pops with the front. After this change shaping
up in the long term. Instead of maintaining flat ridge over the
area...models now dig trough across NERN states Thursday...ushering
in cooler and drier conditions.
.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Models indicate that a few light shra could push thru the tol and
maybe fdy areas into early afternoon but still expect vfr to
prevail. From mid afternoon on...there is a little better chance for
more significant shra/tsra at tol and fdy which may spread east near
lake erie sat night to possibly threaten cle aft 03z.
There could be some patchy fog toward daybreak this morning but the
threat is low enough to keep out of the tafs.
OUTLOOK...A chance of non-VFR late Saturday night or Sunday in sct
High pressure over the Great Lakes will slide east and move off the
New England coast late Sunday...allowing a weak front to push across
the lake Sunday night. Some choppy conditions Monday with a NE
flow around 10 knots...but will remain below small craft advisory
criteria. Conditions quickly improve Monday as high pressure builds
over the lake and remains through mid week.