Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 300527
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
127 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017
A warm front near the Ohio Valley will move north across the
area late tonight and Sunday morning. Deepening low pressure
over the plains will move north to Wisconsin Monday and Ontario
on Tuesday. The associated cold front will move across the
local area on Monday. Cooler and blustery weather will spread
across the area behind the cold front.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
We continue to monitor the evolution of the convective complex
moving east across Indiana. Thunderstorms have finally started
to exhibit a weakening trend in the last hour which was expected
as they continued to move eastward towards the ridge and drier
air. Additional development has started ahead of the main line
in Central Indiana near and just north of the warm front and
expect this to continue to be a focus for new initiation as the
warm front slowly lifts north overnight. Strong moisture
advection is occurring in this area fueled by a 45-50 knot low
level jet moving north across Indiana and expanding into
northwest Ohio. The combination of the moisture advection
increasing into the area north of the warm front and remnant MCV
riding northeast around the ridge has warranted an update to
the forecast to raise pops across much of the area. Have brought
likely pops into most areas west of Interstate 71 with chance
pops continuing eastward across the CWA. Severe weather is not
expected although if any strong cells continue we may need to
monitor for some elevated hail cores. We will also need to keep
an eye out for heavy rainfall as areas from Marion to Mansfield
have already had about 1.5 inches in the last 24 hours. The flow
should be strong enough to keep the stronger cells moving and
limit the flooding threat as long as storms do not become tied
to the warm front and begin training. The Scioto River near
Larue has been rising quickly this evening and additional rain
could push it towards minor flood stage. This will be something
to monitor overnight.
Previous discussion...The clearing has been impressive across
southern and central Ohio. Areas that had heavy rain and
thunderstorms this morning had become mostly sunny, a sure sign
of ridging aloft. The front is stubbornly far south though and
it will take until Sunday morning to push north across the area.
In the meantime, yet another wave has begin propagating
eastward along the front. Showers and storms should slide across
Indiana early tonight. Not sure how much activity will push
across the forecast area later tonight given the increasing
ridging, the best chance would be across northwest Ohio.
Temperatures will not drop much and should begin to rise by morning,
especially across the south. Lows tonight will range from the
lower 60s in the far south to the 40s north.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front will move north of the area on Sunday but the
forecast may not be cut and dried. A leading short wave is progged
to lift out across the midwest. If the warm front is still lingering
over Lake Erie and convection fires along the front, the outflow
from the convection could effectively push the front back south to
the south shore of Lake Erie. This may be most likely toward
Conneaut and Erie PA but may also occur elsewhere including Toledo
given the falling pressures out west. A county or two inland from
the lake, my suspicion is that the atmosphere will be capped.
Isolated severe storms are not out of the question.
Will not go all the way on the high temperature forecast near Lake
Erie as compared to inland where it will become windy and quite warm
with highs in the 80s Sunday afternoon.
Once the wind picks up on Sunday, it will remain windy for a few
days. The south wind will blow ahead of the cold front Sunday night
into Monday and the southwest wind will blow behind the front on
Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front from
early Monday morning into Monday afternoon east of I-71.
As the cold advection and mixing increase, it may be as windy
or windier on Tuesday. Too early to be definitive but I could
see a wind advisory both Monday and Tuesday especially from
around the I-71 corridor west across northwest Ohio.
A few wrap around showers associated with the upper trough will
spread across the area Monday night and could linger into
Tuesday, especially across extreme northeast Ohio and northwest
PA. Temperatures will tumble by Tuesday with highs only in the
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday should start off dry in most areas as a short-wave ridge
moves overhead and a surface high moves in from the west. There
could be a few lingering showers early in the period across
northwest Pennsylvania as a trough moves away to the northeast.
Models vary quite a bit starting Wednesday night. We will be dealing
with a developing cut-off low across the Southern Plains that will
most likely stall across the Southeast US somewhere. It is not
surprising the models are struggling with this, but will lean
slightly more towards the timing of the GFS as the ECMWF has a
tendency to be a little fast with the timing of cut-off lows.
This means a slight chance of showers late Wednesday afternoon, but
any precipitation may very well hold off until Wednesday night. Rain
chance will continue through Thursday afternoon as the low remains
stalled off to our southwest with a shortwave trough moving across
the Great Lakes.
An area of high pressure looks to move in from the northwest Friday,
which would dry things out. Temperatures throughout the long range
will be slightly below normal.
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Precip remains confined to the I-75 corridor and will remain
that way the next few hours. This precip will eventually move
off to the north. Will continue with a mention of showers at TOL
and FDY for a couple of hours. Elsewhere...IFR cigs have spread
into the southern end of the area. This corresponds to where
the heavy rain fell on Saturday and not expecting the low cigs
to spread over the rest of the area. The eastern sites should
remain mainly VFR and dry during the TAF period. A warm front
will lift north across the area later today and should clear
most of the area by late afternoon. Easterly winds will become
southerly and increase behind the front.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR and scattered showers possible Monday through
Tuesday night and again Thursday.
Northeast winds around 15 knots are ongoing this afternoon across
the Western Basin of Lake Erie. Look for this winds to turn around
more to the east and increase to 15 to 25 knots this evening
into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect everywhere
until tomorrow morning. Winds won`t pick up on the eastern half
until around midnight or so. A warm front will lift north of the
lake shore Sunday afternoon turning winds around to the
southeast. Winds will continue to turn more southerly late
Sunday night into Monday. Strong south to southwest winds are
expected Monday, with even stronger westerly winds on Tuesday in
the wake of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed
for these periods. Winds could approach gales on Tuesday, but
the forecast currently keeps the winds just below gale criteria.
Winds will weaken rapidly Tuesday night.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for