Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 031747
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME STRATIFORM RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING
SQUALL LINE THAT HAS TAKEN ITS MAIN PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEADVILLE TO MOUNT VERNON LINE. HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND ADJUST TO ANY SLOWER TIMING.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NW PA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HANG IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS
PIECE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THE ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
AN LINGER SHOWERS SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST. WHILE NOT OVERLY PRONOUNCED...THE TROUGHING WILL STILL
INDUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. BY MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80`S AS THE TROUGH RETREATS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INTO CANADA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO
HONE IN ON AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY DRY IN REACTION TO THE MODELS WASHING
OUT THE LOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2-3K RANGE WILL AFFECT
FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING
AND LIFTING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...MAINLY AT
MFD/CAK/YNG BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE BETTER SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WIND
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY 16Z TUES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL START OFF SOUTHERLY ACROSS LE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. A SCA HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
THIS SECTION OF THE LAKE...AND CANCELLED FOR ALL SECTIONS TO THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A HIGH SWIMMING RISK IN THE EAST.
THE WIND WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND WAVES WILL SETTLE
BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. WEST WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. BY THURSDAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE WAVES WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...MAYERS


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