Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 302222
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
622 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the mid Mississippi valley will shift
northeast to the Ohio Valley Tuesday before drifting to New
England Wednesday. A cold front will push east through the region
Thursday. High pressure will build in for Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure and dry stable airmass will continue across Northern
Ohio and NWRN PA through the evening and overnight. Expecting
mostly clear skies and light winds. Lows mostly 55 to 60. No
changes with this early evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Models continue to show the high in the area Tuesday before
drifting northeast Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Also...there is
some question as to whether a back door cold front drops into the
area from the nne Tuesday Night. At this time according to the
NAM12 low level temps and winds the front does make it into the
northeast before retreating Wednesday in increasing southerly
flow. No precip and not much cloud cover expected with the front.
Wednesday should continue dry although moisture will be increasing
across the area ahead of an approaching cold front due into the
west early Thursday. Expect showers and a few thunderstorms to
preceded the front Wednesday night...mainly after midnight. The
front will move through on Thursday although it will be slowing as
it does. Although not outlooked...imagine we could have a few
decent thunderstorms as NAM12 capes are forecast to reach around
1000j/kg central and east in the afternoon while the GFS li`s drop
to -4. Will continue with high chance pops early Thursday before
decreasing from the west during the afternoon as drier more stable
air moves in. Thursday night will have low chance pops east to
catch any leftover activity before drying it out overnight. highs
roughly 80 to 85 Tuesday and Wednesday and upper 70s to near 80
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the forecast area on
Friday. A low pressure system will develop over the western Great
Lakes region Friday night into Saturday.  This system will develop
into a vigorous upper level low and surface storm system Saturday
night into Sunday. Showers and cooler weather can be expected as
this system slowly spins over the Great Lakes region into the
through the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure is building over the area. A few cumulus are forming
this afternoon 4-5kft and it is possible a few locations may go
broken between 18z-20Z. Cumulus will dissipate this evening with
only a few high clouds over the TAF locations. 12Z NAM CU rule
shows the possibility of cumulus once again on Tuesday but
coverage should be minimal. Winds will remain light and from a
west to northwest direction this afternoon and tonight. A shift to
the north and northeast is expected on Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR Thursday with shra and possible tsra.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build over the lake tonight.  A light west to
northwest wind 10 knots or less is expected.  With the light
pressure gradient land and lake interactions may produce variable
winds near the shore.  The high pressure system will move east of
the lake on Tuesday.  This will bring a north and then northeast
flow over Lake Erie.  This northeast flow will remain through
Wednesday.  An approaching cold front will shift the winds to a
southerly direction Wednesday night into Thursday.  As the front
moves across the lake, a west to northwest wind flow will return for
late in the week. Wind speeds through the period should remain
fairly light.  Wind speeds may increase into the 10 to 20 knot range
on Wednesday with the northeast flow but I expect conditions to
remain below small craft advisory criteria.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Garnet
AVIATION...Garnet
MARINE...Garnet



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