Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 210436
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1136 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast out of the Plains overnight and
lift another warm front across the area on Saturday. An upper level
trough will close off along the Gulf Coast on Sunday then curl up
the east coast on Monday focusing a plume of moisture from the
Atlantic towards the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Some areas of dense fog continues to develop along the lakeshore
at this time. Some reporting sites reporting 1/8th of a mile in
visibility. Until push of warm air arrives to the lakeshore around
5 AM, will issue a dense fog advisory until 5 AM. This will be
along the immediately lakeshore. Otherwise, patchy drizzle
possible under the low stratus clouds but expect it to be really
light. As warm front interacts with deeper moisture in the
northeast, can`t rule out an isolated light shower. Temperatures
should be nearly steady state through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Well above normal temperatures will continue over the weekend and
warmed highs on Saturday to be in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
Mansfield record high near 58 degrees and Youngstown of 59 degrees
are both in jeopardy of being broken while other sites are all in
the mid to upper 60s. Expecting the overnight drizzle to come to an
end as the warm front lifts north again and with the airmass dries aloft.
Although the stratus may thin some during the afternoon, not
expecting too many breaks to develop until late in the day. By
that time mid and high cloud will be on the increase again so will
just call sky cover mostly cloudy. If any significant breaks
develop then temperatures could be warmer.

Upper level low will close off along the Gulf States on Sunday
and curl northeast up the coast on Monday. This system will be
nearly vertically stacked with favorable easterly flow and
moisture transport off the Atlantic in advance of the system.
Raised pops to categorical on Sunday night and Monday given the
favorable moisture transport and PW values near 1 inch. Some
uncertainty remains with how long the rain will linger which will
depend on the evolution of this system. If it stalls along the
Mid-Atlantic then rain could continue longer versus drifting
north and losing that connection. Rain bands will eventually
diminish and decrease in coverage with time as the system becomes
increasingly wrapped up. QPF during the Sunday-Monday time frame
is expected to range from a third of an inch in the west to up to
an inch in the east but this will need to be refined over the
weekend. At this time expecting some additional rises on area
rivers with only minor flooding.

Temperatures in the Toledo area and northwest Ohio will start to
drop off on Sunday as a northeasterly flow develops off Lake
Erie. Northerly flow expected to increase all areas by Monday with
highs dropping back into the low to mid 40s on the north side of
the system. The airmass may finally cool enough for some mix with
snow with lingering precipitation on Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term begins Tuesday with the GFS and ECMWF in agreement
showing one upper low pulling east out of the area followed by
another dropping across the Great Lakes region from the northwest
Thursday and Friday. At the surface...low pressure will move through
the region Wednesday dragging a cold front through during the day.
For Tuesday...will have low chance pops for a mix northeast with
lingering moisture from the departing low. For Wednesday will have
chance pops for rain in place as warmer air moves into the area
ahead of the low. The cold front will follow during the day.  Moist
air will continue to flow in to the area behind the low as colder
air moves in so will have primarily snow forecast for Wednesday
night. Most areas chance pops should be fine but will have likely
pops northeast. Thursday through Friday the upper low swings across
the Great Lakes keeping at least scattered rain/snow showers in
place. Temps mild to start but trending toward normal Thursday int0
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Lot`s of challenges tonight. Dense fog continues to spread inland
and a prolonged period of IFR to LIFR conditions is expected at
the northern TAF sites overnight. Conditions may try to improve in
a few hours as a warm front lifts across the area but would not
bet on it. Further south skies have actually cleared and expect
fog and stratus to begin to fill in overnight. Winds will pick up
after daybreak and should see conditions begin to improve although
it may take much of the morning at KERI. By 18z or so expect most
of the area to be VFR.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR persisting through much of saturday. Non-VFR
developing again Sunday continuing Monday. Non-VFR will likely
persist on Tuesday NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
Weather over Lake erie will be dominated by two system over the next
several days.  First, low pressure over the central plains this
evening will move northeast into the western lakes and upper midwest
Saturday night and Sunday dragging a warm front north across Lake
Erie. The next system will move out of the southern plains Saturday
night tracking east across the Tennessee valley Sunday across the
central Appalachians Monday into the northeast on Tuesday. Neither
system is expected to produce gales on the lakes however northeast
flow on Monday may reach small craft advisory levels.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for OHZ003-007>012-
     089.
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...TK



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