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000
FXUS65 KCYS 280416
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1016 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 412 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Vigorous shortwave moving into western Wyoming has sparked off
thunderstorms along what actually looks like a pre-frontal boundary
across southeast Wyoming, with these storms moving east across
the Panhandle. Another line of storms has developed along what is
more likely the front stretching from Niobrara County southwest
into Albany County. As expected, this activity has produced winds
of 45 to 55 mph within a deep and dry boundary layer. Can`t rule
out a rogue gust to 60 mph too with shower/storm activity, but
predictability of stronger winds is tough in these combo dry
boundary layer/convection/synoptic situations. Across the
Panhandle and Niobrara County, SBCAPES have risen to 1000-2000
J/kg with the cap weakening. Ongoing storms here should clear to
the east in the next hour or two.

The Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through 7pm for FWZ
306 and 309. Conditions should improve through the night after
frontal passage and as the upper level shortwave shifts to the
east. Yet another wave will move overhead on Wednesday but
instability should be less overall with cooler temperatures and
drier conditions in place. Fire weather concerns should be less
than today, but may still be elevated especially in FWZ 309 due to
gusty westerly winds and dry humidities in the upper teens.
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms may yet again produce very
little rainfall. A stronger cold front dropping south Wednesday
evening and overnight period will bring much cooler temps to the
forecast area for Thursday. Another shortwave trough moving
overhead will bring chances for showers/storms in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Highs will be relatively cool on Friday behind the Thursday fropa.
Convective activity looks rather limited during the aftn with only
weak CAPE progged.  The GFS continues to show better llvl moisture
working into areas near the Colorado Border by Saturday, whereas the
Euro is drier.   Higher dewpoints/instability will likely move
northward into the western Panhandle by Sunday as a sfc trough
develops along the WY-NE border.  A shortwave will be moving
overhead on Sunday also, so with increased flow aloft and deep layer
shear, may see some potential for strong to severe storms east of
the sfc trough.  Warming will occur by Sunday, and especially as we
head toward the 4th of July, as the long range models intensify the
subtropical ridge to the southwest of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1014 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Wyoming TAFS...VFR. Isolated thunderstorms near Cheyenne from 20Z
to 01Z. Wind gusts to 30 knots from 15Z to 01Z.

Nebraska TAFS...VFR. Isolated thunderstorms near sites from 21Z to
02Z. Wind gusts to 20 knots at Scottsbluff and Sidney from 21Z to
02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 412 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 7pm for FWZ 306 and
309. Fire Weather Conditions will improve some for Wednesday
although humidities look to drop into the upper teens with winds
gusting around 30 mph in the afternoon along and west of I-25.
Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected
on Wednesday as well.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM