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000
FXUS65 KCYS 150615
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1215 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE REGION IS IN ADVANCE OF
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN IDAHO.  THIS
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO COLORADO BY
SATURDAY AFTN.  PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEGUN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTN THAT HAVE CAUSED A FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST
WY.  THE 700MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 45 METERS
OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE FAVORED WIND PRONE
AREAS. FROPA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ON SATURDAY
MORNING.  THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT 3-6 HR PERIOD OF RISING MOTION
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN DURING THE
AFTN.  SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE HIGHEST QPF (.1-.2
INCHES) TO THE NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO
SCOTTSBLUFF...INCREASED POPS A BIT THERE.  SFC WET BULB TEMPS DURING
THE TIME OF PRECIP RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS
THE PLAINS SO EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.  COULD
BECOME MORE OF A RAIN-SNOW MIXTURE DURING THE AFTN.  STILL FCSTING
LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 3-6 INCHES IN
THE MTNS.  THE OTHER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.  COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT LLVL LAPSE RATES.  COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS
IN THE EARLY AFTN DURING PEAK MIXING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.

HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.  TEMPS
SHOULD WARM UP NICELY BY SUNDAY AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE LEE
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND 700MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 0C.  WEST WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTN IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE
FALLS...AND THEN INCREASE EVEN FURTHER BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  700MB WINDS
OF 45-50 KTS BY 12Z MONDAY COULD SUPPORT HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND
PRONE AREAS...HOWEVER THE BETTER LLVL GRADIENT IS REALLY DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

QUITE MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
AREAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA ON TUESDAY BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A ROUND OF RAIN AND
SNOW ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS TUESDAY GIVEN THE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CLEARING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATING WEDS AND THURSDAY.
A SECONDARY WEAK IMPULSE MAY DROP SE OVER THE CWA LATE WEDS BUT
CURRENTLY APPEARS ANY EFFECTS WILL BE MINOR. A BIT COOLER AGAIN
FRIDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC COOL FRONT.  LITTLE IF ANY PCPN WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING BEHIND THE
FRONT IN SNOW. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW WILL
OCCUR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN A SECOND WAVE OF
SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS AND SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND IT AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ON SUNDAY INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH