Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 011128
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
628 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. ONCE AGAIN THE THREAT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MONITOR THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PATCHY FOG IS COVERING PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER WITH VSBYS DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BTWN 9
AND 10 AM AND LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
BEFORE A CONV CU FIELD FILLS IN.

THE DEEP UPPER LOW TO THE EAST IS BEGINNING TO ROTATE EWD AND WILL
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER S/W
WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND ONCE AGAIN COMBINE
WITH AN UNSTABLE BL AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND THE
LOCATION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MUCH LIKE
THURSDAY WITH A CU FIELD FORMING FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS E/SEWD
INTO NW WI...AND SHOWERS/STORMS BUILDING ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS
WELL...UP AROUND 1200 J/KG...WITH NEGLIGIBLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SFC
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...INTO THE
LOWER 80S...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THUR. A FEW STORMS COULD
PULSE UP TO SVR OR NEAR SVR LATER TODAY...WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NW. SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF AGAIN AND WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT THE AIR
MASS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND INHIBIT THE AMT OF FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TONIGHT. MOST OF SATURDAY WILL
BE VERY PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S...AND DRY WX CONDITIONS. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
NW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE JUST AFTER 12 NOON
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO PARTS OF NE MN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 500MB
SHORTWAVE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE
SOUTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE ARE EVEN
INDICATIONS THAT AN MCS MAY EVEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. WE ARE STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME AND THERE IS ENOUGH
MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING THAT HAVE LEFT POPS AT
CHANCE...THOUGH EXPECT THIS TO RISE HERE SOON. MILD TEMPS
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO CHANGE AS
COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH...LEAVING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S
NORTH FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH LOW 80S ONLY FAR SOUTH...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY.

COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY SAGGED DOWN TO
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.  HAVE HAD TO
MAINTAIN SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH DRY CONDITIONS NORTH.  HIGHS TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
70S.  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THIS BOUNDARY DOES REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRY NORTH.  A WARMING TREND SHOULD START UP AGAIN
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AS WELL...AND MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING ENOUGH TO LET HIGHS RISE INTO THE 70S TO
NEAR 80.  EXPECT THAT GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE TOO COOL AND WE
WILL BE BACK INTO THE 80S FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE TERMINALS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 18Z...MAINLY AFFECTING KHYR AND KBRD. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST PUT IN VCSH...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE TSRA AND CB CLOUD
GROUPS. TSRA TO DISSIMINATE BY 02Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW...BUT LATER ISSUANCES WILL CONTAIN THESE
REFINEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  58  82  62 /  20  10  10  50
INL  83  52  83  55 /  10   0  40  30
BRD  83  58  85  61 /  30  10  10  50
HYR  81  54  80  58 /  40  10  10  50
ASX  76  54  81  60 /  20  10   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE









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