Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 282016
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
416 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL PIVOT UP INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPES IN
THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A DECREASING
TREND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORT WAVE. WITH FAIRLY LOW WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
ALSO WITH SOME DRIER ALOFT...THE MAX DELTA THETA E IS FAIRLY HIGH
SO SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS. FFG IS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AREA...WITH 1 HOUR VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT THEY
DO INCREASE SOME ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
WITH PWS PUSHING UP IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH CURRENT STORM MOTION AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS...THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH PCPN SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST SO THINK ANY THUNDER WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN MOVE IN...BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY
DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS
THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS
TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE.

TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC WAVE OVER SRN INDIANA TO RIPPLE EAST THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG E-W ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LOW IN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACRS SRN OHIO AND NRN KY THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND IMPROVE AHEAD OF
THIS CONVECTION. HAVE USED VCTS TO IDENTIFY THE BEST PERIOD FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE SFC WAVE...
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.

LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR
TO DEVELOP ACRS ALL TAF SITES.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN TO
VFR LATER FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...AR


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