Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 281156
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
756 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure traveling along a slow moving frontal
boundary will produce thunderstorms with heavy rainfall mainly
in southern locations today and tonight. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Friday when the system will be
moving east. Disturbances in the upper atmosphere may help trigger
a few more showers and thunderstorms in an unstable airmass
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stationary front lies near the Ohio River. Very moist air is
evident in low levels with surface dew points in the lower 70s
near the boundary. Conditions are also moist above the surface,
with model soundings showing near saturation from the surface to
25000 ft. With the air column containing over 2 inches of
precipitable water, and with ample lift and convergence along the
boundary, widespread thunderstorms are developing even at night.
In addition, a wave of low pressure traveling along the front from
the west will provide additional lift and convergence especially
this afternoon. This regime is highly conducive for heavy rain to
occur. With heavy rainfall now occurring, have expanded Flash
Flood Watch to include the Cincinnati metro area. Further
expansion northward may be needed if radar trends dictate. The
chance for severe thunderstorms appears low due to a lack of dry
air in the mid levels, and rather weak winds aloft. Locations to
the north of I-70 being farther from the frontal forcing may see
only scattered thunderstorms. High temperatures ranging from the
mid 80s north down to the upper 70s south will be limited by
clouds and precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wave of low pressure will be moving east tonight while the front
sags a bit toward the south. Heavy rain will end overnight, but
the chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger mainly over
southern locations close to the boundary.

Thunderstorms chances will persist Friday when another wave of low
pressure is expected to develop to the west along the still
present boundary. More showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Saturday as the broad and weak area of low pressure pushes toward
Ohio ahead of a digging mid level short wave.

High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to remain a
few degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s due to clouds and
precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday another weak shortwave trough will remain in close
proximity to the area with a surface front located across the CWA.
This will help to bring the chance of rain right back to the area.
Given the weak upper level trough quickly pulling east the cold
front stalling across the area seems likely. Given the chance of
showers and thunderstorms during the day have kept high
temperatures near climo. Monday into Tuesday as the shortwave
trough exits weak mid-level ridging will then build overhead as
mid-level high pressure builds over the central United States.
There still remains timing differences on when the high will build
and how far it will build east. For now have just trended PoPs
down.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
First area of convection has moved thru CVG/LUK and will affect
ILN and CMH/LCK over the first couple of hours of the taf period.
Expect MVFR cigs and vsbys with the pcpn. There will probably be
some temporary drops to IFR conditions in heavier cells. DAY will
remain on the nw fringe of the pcpn shield.

A second shot of pcpn in s central KY will lift north later this
morning and should affect CVG/LUK around 14Z-16Z.

The deeper moisture shifts east of TAF sites this aftn, so expect
pcpn to become more scattered in nature. Due lagging upper level
support and unstable airmass have kept VCTS until early evening.

Looks like the overnight hours could remain dry, but there will
be a chance of fog at the majority of the taf sites.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...Sites



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