Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 211147
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
647 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will be possible today into tonight along a weak cold
front. High pressure is forecast to provide mainly dry weather
on Wednesday. A low pressure system will bring showers and
thunderstorms back into the weather picture Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold front is located near the Mississippi River early this
morning. The front is weakening as it moves into less favorable
moisture and forcing that are in place over the Ohio Valley.
Though moisture and lift will increase somewhat today as the
front moves in, have reduced PoPs and delayed onset of shower
chances based on latest models that have trended drier over the
last several runs. Current radar echos that are scant along the
front support the drier solution.

Much above normal temperatures will persist. Highs in the mid
and upper 60s will be within a few degrees of record highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As the front weakens tonight while entering the area, most
locations should be free from measurable precip. However, a
shot of short wave energy and moisture developing around an
upper low to the south may bring showers mainly along and south
of the Ohio River. Kept PoPs below likely due to model
inconsistencies.

Following the dying cold front, weak surface high pressure and
a broad ridge aloft are expected to prevent measurable precip
from developing on Wednesday. Decreasing cloud cover should
result in sunshine by Wednesday afternoon.

Minimal temperature advection associated with the front will
allow highs to stay well above normal Wednesday, in the mid and
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Westerly mid level flow with shortwave passing through the Great
Lakes Wednesday night/Thursday. This will allow a surface front to
drop down into the southern Great Lakes and stall out. Meanwhile
vigorous jet energy will carve out a trough over the western US.
Shortwave pivoting northeast will induce a deepening surface low
that ejects from the central plains on Thursday into the Great Lakes
Friday. Aforementioned surface front lifts north as a warm front
with a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm mainly the
northern counties Thursday night.

Breezy conditions will exist in the warm sector Friday when
temperatures approach record values in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Associated strong surface cold front to sweep east through ILN/s FA
Friday evening. MUCAPES values of 500 to 750 j/kg are fcst Friday
afternoon into Friday evening ahead of this surface front. Numerical
models have been showing good continuity from run to run. Sherbs3
shows a a good signal for high shear low cape strong squall line
potential with the possibility of damaging winds. Will continue to
highlight this threat in the HWO product.

In the wake of the front breezy conditions are likely in the CAA
pattern later Friday night into Saturday. Scattered showers will be
possible Saturday due to the passage of the mid level trof. These
showers may transition or mix with a few snow showers prior to
ending Saturday night. Surface high pressure to build in Sunday
providing dry weather and more seasonable Temperatures.

In the quick zonal flow a front to drop south through the area
providing a slight chance of a rain or snow shower Sunday night into
early Monday. A better threat of rain showers looks to occur late
Monday into Tuesday, as this front returns north as a warm front
with a surface wave of low pressure traveling through the Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Split flow with weak northern shortwave passing through the
Great Lakes today. This will allow a weakening front to push
into the region from the west and wash out. Expect VFR
conditions with mainly mid and high level CIGS through most of
the day. A shower or two this afternoon is not out of the
question but coverage and probability are too low to mention
more than VCSH in the TAF forecast. Meanwhile, numerical model
solns are coming more in line with an axis of 850 MB convergence
developing over southern Ohio this evening. This will likely
lead to a band of rain showers over KCVG and KLUK. Have MVFR
CIGS and VSBYs developing at these southern TAF sites with MVFR
CIGS at the others. With weak low level flow and a moist
boundary layer clouds will lower overnight. Some of the solns
take CIGS below 1000 feet. At this time have kept CIGS above
1000 feet with MVFR VSBYS developing in fog.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Wednesday. Thunderstorms
are possible Thursday and Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures
Date     CVG           CMH                DAY
Tue 2/21 70(1930)      71(1997)           68(1930)
Wed 2/22 71(1922)      70(1930)           69(1922)
Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985)      68(1985)
Fri 2/24 72(1930)      72(1961)           67(1930/1961)

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
CLIMATE...



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