Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 281147
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY AND
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING. A POTENT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD DEAL OF MID CLOUDS. HOWEVER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL STILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. GENERALLY WENT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. BUT
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IT
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN FLUX.

INITIALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW. BUT AS WARMING OCCURS
ALOFT THERE WILL BE A MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
SNOW/RAIN MIX WILL PROGRESS FURTHER NORTH DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER
MOST PLACES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW.
MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. AREAS
WITH RAIN OR A MIX MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION STARTING TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM ABOUT CINCINNATI TO LANCASTER. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE
MARGINAL BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ICE AS WELL EARLY
SUNDAY FELT THAT THE ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. FURTHER NORTH
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
QUITE A BIT OF COMPACTING AND/OR MELTING ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THERE WILL BE
A STRONG NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK
OUT IN THE OVERRUNNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHALLOW
COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION STARTING AS
A WINTRY MIX...PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE WILL GET PUSHED OUT TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 300
PERCENT OF NORMAL. SO RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IN ADDITION THE
SNOW PACK WILL MELT DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. THUS THERE
REMAINS A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT WITH STRONG
FORCING WILL HAVE TO BE COGNIZANT OF A POTENTIAL QLCS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY ONCE IT GETS JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY SURGE OF
PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WITH COLDER
AIR WORKING IN THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. TOO EARLY TO
TELL IF THERE COULD BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THAT.

ENTIRE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS SHUNTED FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR
PRECIPITATION TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BUT A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. A SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW HOWEVER SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AT KCVG AND KLUK TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR OHZ063>065-070>072-077.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR INZ066-073-074.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK





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