Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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117
FXUS63 KIWX 120521
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1221 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST
LOCATIONS COULD SEE A QUICK DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF SNOW...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW 20S. ARCTIC AIR
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY
CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING WHICH
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO TAKE A SHARP DROP. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT TEMP DROPS SOMEWHAT...WITH ALSO AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WOULD SUSPECT LOW TEMP MAY BE REACHED
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR IN THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE BECOMING STEADY. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MINS
TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...MAINLY FOR SNOW COVERED AREAS
AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID/HIGH CLOUD
ARRIVAL SHOULD BE MORE DELAYED. OTHERWISE...NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH JUST A CORRESPONDING SLIGHT
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SE INTO THE OH VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AND BACKING WINDS WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE SCT
LAKE EFFECT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EARLY THIS
EVENING. WK SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RIDGE TODAY WILL DIVE RAPIDLY SE TO
THE LWR OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EVE. EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES WHICH COMBINED WITH WK WAA SHOULD LIMIT TEMP
FALLS OVERNIGHT.

SECOND STRONGER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC CDFNT WILL DROP SSE
ACROSS THE GRTLKS FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SNOW SHOWERS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE NW WHERE THERE WILL BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, PRBLY LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW WHERE CURRENT SNOW
PACK IS DEEPER AND MORE NEW SNOWFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE L20S WITH TEMPS PSBLY FALLING OFF A BIT DURING THE AFTN AS CAA
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ANOTHER ARCTIC ONSLAUGHT AS STRONG SWD DROP FM POLAR EXTENSION OVER
CENTRAL HUDSON REACHES FAR SWRN QUEBEC/LK ONT/UPSTATE NY BY 12 UTC
SAT. RAPID LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED AND LIKELY PEAKING 00-06 UTC SAT
AS LK INDUCED PARAMETERS PEAK WITH EQL TOPPING 10KFT AND CAPE VALUES
TO 600-650 J/KG WITH LWR 20C LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS. WITH TIME PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES TRANSFER TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL SYSTEM BY 12
UTC SAT...LARGELY SHEARING OUT WRN EXTENSION OF LAKE AGGREGATE TROF.
THIS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW CP BULK MOISTURE AND COMMENSURATE
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH AND SHALLOW DGZ WITH POOR LEVEL OF
SUPERSATURATION AND MAJORITY OF DEPTH IN SFC TO CLOUD BASE WITH
SUPERSATURATION ABOVE DGZ FOR INTRODUCTIONS OF COLUMNS AND SMALL
HEXAGONAL PLATES TO LEND INCREASINGLY LOWER SLR WITH TIME THROUGH
END OF ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. STILL AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW ATOP
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK TO AFFORD BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL AND COLD
AIRMASS SUPPORTING MIN WIND CHILLS -5 TO -10 DURING LATTER PART OF
LES SNOW EVENT FOR A MULTI HAZARD ADVISORY. UNLIKE THE LAST
SUBSTANTIAL LONG DURATION LES EVENT HEIGHTS REBUILD AS ARCTIC
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY ENVELOPES UPPER GREAT LAKES SQUELCHING
RESPONSE LATE SAT AFTN/EVE. THEREAFTER MINOR WAVES FOR LOW POPS
ASSOCCD WITH POSSIBLE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS DYS4-6 FOLLOWED BY
EXPECTED MINOR LES TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS ERN CONUS TROF DEEPENS AND
DRIVES APPALACHIAN TO NEW ENGLAND OR A NEAR COASTAL SYSTEM AROUND
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR/LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE. SNOW
SHOWERS, INCREASING/VEERING WINDS, AND CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR/LOW
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD BY
APPROXIMATELY 16Z AT KSBN AND 18Z AT KFWA. SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO IFR AT TIMES...BEST CHANCES AT KSBN WHERE A TEMPO
GROUP WAS RETAINED. OTHERWISE...MVFR AT KFWA AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR
AT KSBN INTO TONIGHT AS NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO
     4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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