Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 302324
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
724 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

OCCASIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE MID 50S IN
CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY... MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

DEEP MOISTURE FIELD ALONG WITH COGENT I300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
LENDING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT CWA.
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD OR AT LEAST TRANSITION TO LIGHTER/MORE
SPOTTY RAINFALL TO THEN ENTER SWRN CWA THIS EVE/LIFTING NEWD AS
DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO SWRN UPR GREAT LAKES AND ISENT UVM
DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY WITH BEST AXIS LIFTING NWD THROUGH MI.
WHILE CWA REMAINS LARGELY ON COLD SIDE OF FRONTAL OCCLUSION AS YET
ANOTHER SLOWLY FILLING MID LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS/FILLS FROM
CNTL PLAINS INTO THE SWRN UPR GRTLKS...DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT WITH THICK IFR STRATUS DECK TO CAP RADIATIVE EFFECTS AND
AT MINIMUM COLD LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW/ESPCLY ACRS SRN CWA.
THIS AREA WILL BODE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY. STILL SUSPECT DESTABILIZATION QUITE CONDITIONAL AND
CERTAINTY FOR TSRA NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH. AFFORDED SOME
TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DELINEATION WRT TSRA CHANCES...WITH HIEST CHANCES
21-24 UTC SUN OVER SERN QUARTER CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
FINALLY OPEN/SHEAR EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. LAST
SEVERAL MODEL ITERATIONS HAVE TRENDED LESS SHEARED WITH MORE
FOCUSED ASCENT DURING THIS TIME. AS A RESULT BUMPED POPS UP SUNDAY
EVENING WITH SCT-NUM SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ALONG SE SINKING LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD
SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO FOCUS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN SOUTH
AS NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ARIZONA SHEARS QUICKLY ENE THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS. WITH THAT SAID THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH OF A MID
LVL FGEN/PVA RESPONSE TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...BUT OPTED TO RETAIN OPTIMISTIC (MAINLY
DRY...10-20 POPS) FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY/COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

BLOCKY PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST MID-LATE WEEK AS CUT-OFF UPPER
LOWS EVENTUALLY EMERGES OVER THE EASTERN US AND SOUTHWEST US...WITH
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN ACROSS HIGH PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY IN THIS TRANSITION AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY DROPS SOUTH
FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. COULD EVEN SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY ON WESTERN FRINGE OF CIRCULATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING SLIDES IN PRE-FRONTAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LARGE BAND OF RAIN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER SRN IL/IN SHOULD
LIFT NE OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVE AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MO
MOVES EAST TO CENTRAL INDIANA. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DIMINISHING GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IFR VSBYS/CIGS TO
LOWER TO LIFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DIURNAL
MIXING SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH IN THE AFTN CAUSING
SHRA TO MOVE BACK INTO NRN INDIANA BY EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


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