Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 301945
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD CORE LOW OVER
SOUTH AL HAS FINALLY STARTED LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE OVER THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYTEM OVER THE NE AND EXPECT THEM
TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS EACH DAY. OVERALL LIGHT FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME EACH DAY
WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT WEAK COLD CORE LOW WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
THE SYSTEM NEARS...BUT BETTER CHANCE LOOK TO MOVE IN FOR
WEDNESDAY./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS FOR THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONG
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS PUSH TO UP TO 2 PLUS INCH RANGE BY
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING LOW
END CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE LATE WEEK. AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND CHANCES OF CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE AS WE
DEVELOP DEEPER MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS OVER THE REGION. GFS
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW BETTER VERTICAL LIFT DURING THIS TIME. THE
EURO MODEL WAS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOWED SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING. SO OPTED TO KEEP LOWER END
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO
FLATTERN MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 91-95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION./17/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. FIRST EXCEPTION WL BE MEI-GTR
THIS AFTN/EVNG DUE TO ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SECOND EXCEPTION IS A
BRIEF PERIOD 10Z-12Z MON OF MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  94  71  95 /  14  10   9  10
MERIDIAN      67  92  69  92 /  15  10   9   8
VICKSBURG     68  95  70  95 /  12  10   8  10
HATTIESBURG   70  95  71  94 /  12  10   9   9
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  13
GREENVILLE    70  94  72  95 /  15  10   8  12
GREENWOOD     69  93  70  93 /  15  10  10   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/22/17


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