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000
FXUS64 KJAN 102100
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PLEASANT SPRING
WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE
DELTA HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED AND THIS HAS KEPT READINGS A
BIT COOLER AND IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S THERE. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER OLD MEXICO ARE
SLOWLY STREAMING TO THE NORTH. THESE WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK TOWARD OUR REGION
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT BACK INTO OUR
REGION AND PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND AN INCH IN THE NORTH AND 1.4
INCHES IN THE SOUTH BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO THE ARKLAMISS STARTING LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
CONTINUING TOMORROW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE HIGHEST POPS
REMAIN IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
HIGHEST QPF AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IN THESE
LOCATIONS...AND EVEN MORESO SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL VARY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WHERE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE PRESENT
IN THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD STILL BE NEAR
70...WHEREAS LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH THAT MAY NOT SEE MUCH RAIN AND
JUST SOME CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE MID 70S GIVEN PLENTY
OF SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT WITH IT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPS
TOWARD THE REGION AND A 998MB SFC LOW PULLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS COULD INTERACT WITH WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER THE AREA AND
BRING SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IT COULD BE POSSIBLE
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS WONT BE THE CASE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY...THUS
REMOVED ANY RAIN CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
WILL BE A BIT OF A CHANGE FROM THE WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN USED TO OVER
THE LAST WEEK OR SO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST BEHIND THE
FRONT AS A 1030MB SFC HIGH DROPS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
BRING RATHER GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE REGION. CURRENT DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN A WIND ADVISORY FOR PROBABLY
JUST THE DELTA REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LIKELY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
AND DROP/REMAIN STEADY DURING THE DAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. A
LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR FORECAST PARAMETERS...CUT MAV MOS HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS THEY
APPEARED TOO HIGH FOR THE FRONT THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH. WENT
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO THE MET MOS. ALSO ADDED LOW END POPS FOR THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING RAIN. /28/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT
EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING AS A ZONAL PATTERN PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PUT US BACK INTO MORE SPRING LIKE TEMPS FOR
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. A SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS. MEANWHILE OUT WEST A
BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL HELP TO BUILD AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT REGIME OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WE
WILL GET SOME MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH SHALLOW CAPES AROUND 200-300
DURING THE WEEKEND. PWATS WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE SO EXPECTING
GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BY LATE SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WE WILL SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
CONTINUING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS AND POPS ARE CONCERNED GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN MOST PERIODS SINCE THE GFS AND EURO WERE GENERALLY
SIMILAR./17/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE MOST OF TONIGHT BUT
CLOUDS WL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL AND S BY 11Z. MVFR CIGS WL
PREVAIL TUESDAY AS RAIN SPREADS NORTH FROM THE S DURING THE AFTN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTN WL BECOME NEAR CALM
TONIGHT THEN BE MORE SELY 5-10KTS TUESDAY. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  72  55  63 /   6  46  20   7
MERIDIAN      51  71  55  64 /   4  58  41   7
VICKSBURG     54  74  52  61 /   7  34  18   6
HATTIESBURG   53  70  56  66 /  10  80  23  11
NATCHEZ       54  71  53  61 /  14  61  16   6
GREENVILLE    51  75  51  57 /   3  19  17   7
GREENWOOD     53  76  53  59 /   3  24  19   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/17/22