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000
FXUS64 KJAN 260859
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A QUIET BUT VERY WARM
WEEKEND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
594DM UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. LITTLE WILL CHANGE ON SUNDAY
...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES. WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
EXPECT THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THOUGH...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
THE MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS. STUCK PRETTY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID CUT BELOW
GUIDANCE HIGHS SLIGHTLY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY./15/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RATHER ANOMALOUS PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST AND TROF DIGGING OVER THE EAST. THIS
INCREASINGLY NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS
AGREE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AS CAPES REACH NEAR
5000 J/KG ALONG WITH VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE UPPER 20S. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR CONSISTENCY IN THIS POTENTIAL IN FUTURE RUNS.

MOVING INTO MID WEEK...DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
PROVIDING COOL OVERNIGHT READINGS IN THE 60S WITH STILL WARM
AFTERNOONS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. THE MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
LOOKS TO OFFER A SURPRISE SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY. WHILE THE GFS DOES
HANDLE THIS WAVE...IT MAINTAINS A DRY SOLUTION. WENT CLOSER TO THE
WETTER ECMWF WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.

MOVING FORWARD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...BOTH MODELS WANT TO DIG
THE COLD CORE LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY BY
SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK PROBABLE DUE TO
INCREASED INSTABILITY./26/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING...BUT PATCHY FOG COULD BRING
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG FROM 10-13Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5-8KTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  74  94  75 /   2   5   2   8
MERIDIAN      93  72  93  73 /   2   5   4   9
VICKSBURG     93  72  94  72 /   2   5   3   7
HATTIESBURG   93  75  95  76 /   6   8   5   9
NATCHEZ       91  73  93  75 /   5   5   5   8
GREENVILLE    94  75  95  73 /   1   5   6  18
GREENWOOD     93  74  94  72 /   1   4   5  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/25