Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 030221 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
921 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SITS JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. ONLY A
FEW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN THE CWA CURRENTLY AND
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS, DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE VERY LIMITED. POPS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK
ACCORDINGLY. ALSO, WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN EARLIER TODAY. TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FORECAST HOURLYS
ON TRACK. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT
MOST TAF SITES TO BECOME MVFR/IFR LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER
13-14Z WITH ALL TAF SITES BECOMING VFR AFTER 17-18Z. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MORE POST-FRONTAL/STRATIFORM
AND SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH THE LACK OF INSOLATION. HOWEVER...A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID 70
WARMTH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE
EAST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO AL BEFORE BECOMING TOO ROBUST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRATIFORM ACTIVITY THAT IS LEFT WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID LEVEL SW FLOW AS THE RESPONSIBLE PARTY FOR
THE PERSISTENT WET WEATHER...BUT VEERING OF THE FLOW JUST A FEW
DEGREES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GIVE FRONT AND WET WEATHER THE PUSH
NEEDED TO FINALLY EXIT THE AREA. EXPECT COOLER AIR TO GRADUALLY PUSH
INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS ONLY LIGHT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
CONTINUE. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT CLEAR DURING
THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE BETTER MID LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE COOLEST AIR TO POUR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.

GOOD RAD COOLING CONDITIONS LOOK TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SETTLES OVER THE AREA LEADING TO
CALM OVERNIGHT WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOME 40S LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH AND EAST EACH OF THOSE MORNINGS...WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE
WILL SETTLE IN THE 50S./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  76  53  77 /  19  10   4   3
MERIDIAN      62  77  53  76 /  21  21  11   3
VICKSBURG     58  75  51  77 /  17  10   5   2
HATTIESBURG   64  78  57  78 /  22  25   3   4
NATCHEZ       61  76  54  77 /  20  12   4   3
GREENVILLE    56  73  53  77 /  14   7   7   3
GREENWOOD     56  74  51  75 /  15   8   6   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



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