Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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056
FXUS64 KJAN 301538 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1038 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...High pressure and the persistent cooler drier air over
the region will again promote quiet and near normal conditions today.
However, the combination of slightly higher dew points today, less
wind, continued very dry ground conditions, and sunny skies, should
result in temperatures being close to, if not a degree or two warmer
than, yesterday`s highs. This is despite lows this morning being
cooler than those observed Thursday morning.

Therefore, the only change made to today`s forecast will be to
increase temperatures up slightly.  Otherwise, the ongoing forecast
is in good shape, and no further changes will be made on this
update. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to occur today. Winds will
be light and generally out of a northerly direction. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

Discussion...Today through Saturday night....Radiational cooling
overnight will result in a cool, crisp morning throughout most of the
ArkLaMiss. Broken to scattered cloud cover associated with the nearly
stagnant upper low that continues to spin over the Ohio Valley, will
move into the Central Mississippi over the next few hours. These
clouds will serve as a thermal blanket for our northernmost counties,
not allowing anymore heat to escape the regions that they cover.
However, temperatures may be in the upper 40s near the Golden
Triangle region by the time the cloud cover arrives. These clouds
will begin to dissipate by 8AM before reaching the Jackson Metro
area.

The Lower Mississippi Valley region will remain on the southwest
side of the upper low today as it slowly begins to lift northward,
resulting in continued NW flow aloft for the region. Temperatures
today will be much like yesterday, however some slightly warmer
temps will be present in the counties along and west of the MS
River where upper level heights will be higher. Lows will once again
fall into the lower 50s Saturday morning. A warming trend will begin
on Saturday as the upper level pattern becomes more zonal. Highs will
be near there early October averages. /JPM3/

Sunday through Thursday night...The upper low will continue to move
northeast out of the Ohio Valley but upper troughing will persist on
Sunday. Expect warmer highs in the mid 80s on Sunday as models
suggest warmer H850/H925 temps. Both the GFS/ECMWF begin to build
upper ridging over the area Sunday night into Monday with the warming
trend continuing. Highs on Monday will climb into the mid/upper 80s,
and as upper heights continue to increase across the area on Tuesday
and Wednesday, high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees.

The GFS/ECMWF both deepen an upper trough over the southern plains
on Wednesday with the ECMWF the faster of the models. The ECMWF
develops some precip over the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
while the GFS keeps the precip west. The ECMWF is deeper with the
trough on Thursday and drives a cold front across the area on
Thursday along with precip. The GFS keeps the trough to the north of
the area and builds upper ridging back in. Will continue to keep at
least slight chance thunder on Thursday to align with our neighbors.
If Hurricane Matthew takes a track up the east coast like the GFS
suggest, expect the extended to mainly be dry, but its unclear what
track Matthew will take at this time. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       81  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     81  53  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   82  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       79  56  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    81  55  83  56 /   0   0   1   0
Greenwood     79  53  84  55 /   0   0   1   0

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/28



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