Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 250251 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
951 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Storms have developed across the ArkLaTex this evening and within
the last hour or so have taken on more of a severe nature. At
this time, hail and wind appear to be the main concern with these
storms. Not much seems to have changed with the thinking for these
storms through the evening hours. Hi-res guidance continues to
indicate that this broken line of storms will reach the western
part of my forecast area by around midnight and track east through
the night. Weakening seems likely still as it does, but how
quickly will that occur remains the question. Mesoanalysis
indicates many of the better parameters will be to our west or in
the western part of my forecast area, which seems consistent with
previous thinking as well. The OOZ KJAN sounding indicates a
rather dry airmass despite our gusty southerly winds that continue
this evening. Going hazard outlook still looks decent with the
best potential for any severe storms being in the western part of
the forecast area from around 11pm/midnight through the early
morning hours. Expect gusty southerly winds to continue ahead of
these storms as mild temperatures should hold through the night.
/28/

Prior discussion below:


Tonight through Saturday,

Strong mixing is resulting in gusty southerly winds and enough
destabilization occurred today to support a few showers in the
capped airmass.  Forecast thinking is generally the same concerning
the severe weather potential for late tonight and again Saturday. A
quasi linear convective system (QLCS) will develop over the ArkLaTex
region and move into western portions of the ArkLaMiss around
midnight and east of the MS River during the predawn hours. With 0-3
km southwesterly shear vectors in the 40-50 kt range and somewhat
orthogonal to the roughly North-South oriented QLCS, there is still
a potential for mesovortices producing tornadoes and damaging wind
gusts. This threat seems greatest over the Delta region with a
diminishing threat toward daybreak along the I-55 corridor.

As we go into Saturday, the initial squall line should dissipate
early in the morning as it moves away from better support and into a
stout mid level ridge centered over the southeast CONUS. Additional
cyclonic vorticity advection and upstream destabilization will help
to produce another round of organized storms from late morning
through the afternoon. Low level shear will not be as strong, but
will monitor the potential for a tornado given 0-1km shear vectors
near the 20kt threshold and perhaps better orientation of 0-3 km
shear vectors. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts/hail are expected to
be the main concerns with steep mid level lapse rates (VT
approaching 30) producing mixed layer CAPE > 1000 J/KG. The greater
threat for severe weather Saturday is expected along/east of the I-
55 corridor in contrast to tonight. /EC/

Tomorrow night and Sunday

Expecting much of the severe to be over shortly after sunset with
a few showers lingering in the east through midnight. The latest
NAM suggests there may be some isolated convection through Sunday
afternoon. The ARW is a little slower than the GFS but still
shows the rain moving out. Will leave the area dry at this point
for Sunday.

Sunday night through Tuesday

Round two of severe approaches Late Sunday night. It
looks like there may be some storms approaching the river by 12z
Monday. Instability is on the rise at that time, but seems to
peak after 15z. The entire area has been changed to a slight risk
of severe Monday. The latest runs show some difference in the
speed of the system and severe could get started early. Forecast
soundings did not show much 0-6 km sheer, but the wind profile
looks good. Could see conditions similar to today with gradient
winds around 30, 40kts at 850 and around 50kt at 500. The surface
low with the system on Monday tracks northeast across the
Arkansas, so for now areas north of I20 and west of I55 may see
some of the bigger hail. Lapse rates support significant hail
sizes, so values much larger than quarters are likely. The
position of the upper jet may be lined up with the surface low as
it passes through the Delta Monday morning, so the potential for
good updrafts and large hail will be there. Conditions continue to
support severe storms. Storms move out Monday evening, but models
suggest the tail end of the boundary stalls along the coast.
While it looks the area will be dry for Tuesday, a few showers
can not be totally ruled out at the warm front drifts north
through the day.

Wednesday through Saturday
While this is nearly a week away, the potential for for Round 3
of severe storms exists for late Wednesday through Thursday of
next week. A closed upper low and deepening surface low move
through the Delta again. The upper trough will be pretty far
south, tapping some much warmer air and good moisture from the
Gulf. The system is worth watching. Warmer than normal conditions
will continue through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will continue through the evening. MVFR ceilings
will increase from west to east through the evening in association
with the TSRA moving in. Seems these lowered ceilings could arrive
at KGLH/KGWO by 02-04z, the after 06z in the HKS/JAN area and
eventually east to GTR/MEI/HBG before daybreak. While MVFR
conditions will be prevalent early Saturday, there will be some
improvement with areas of VFR during the late morning/afternoon
outside of TSRA. Line of showers and storms will move into the
region closer to 04-06z and track east, likely diminishing as it
does. Gusty southerly winds will occur just ahead of these storms
and along the line. Additional storms may redevelop tomorrow
afternoon, mainly affecting KGTR/KMEI/KHBG(possibly KJAN). /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  75  59  81 /  84  74  42   8
Meridian      62  75  60  81 /  24  77  55   9
Vicksburg     65  77  58  81 /  83  72  16   4
Hattiesburg   65  77  62  82 /  28  77  39   9
Natchez       64  77  59  82 /  83  68  23   6
Greenville    63  75  55  78 /  88  66   9   3
Greenwood     64  74  58  79 /  84  73  23   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$



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