651
FXUS64 KJAN 150546
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Tonight through Tuesday Night...

Rain chances will diminish across the area heading into the evening
with quiet conditions expected heading into the overnight period.
Similar to yesterday evening, HREF guidance is showing low
probabilities (10-20%) of patchy fog across the area. Confidence is
too low to introduce any fog graphics at this time, however shallow
patchy fog will be possible around dawn. Overnight lows will drop
into the low 70s areawide.

Quiet weather conditions will persist across our CWA through Tuesday
morning as near term guidance continues to show a 1020mb sfc high
gradually pushing northeast across the southeast CONUS. A few
scattered showers cannot be ruled out. Humid conditions will persist
across the area thanks to this sfc high which will lead to dangerous
heat concerns across the region. Areas along and west of a line from
Clay to Jackson to Laurel MS will have the best potential to see
heat index readings between 106-110 degrees. No changes have been
made and the "Elevated" risk for dangerous will continue to be
advertised. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for tomorrow given
the increased warming trends. Afternoon highs will peak into the mid
to high 90s areawide. /CR/

Wednesday through Sunday...

No changes have been made to the extended period. Dangerous heat
will continue to be the main focus for the long term period with
heat indices in the triple digits. Global guidance is still showing
a 1020mb sfc high hovering over the southeast region looking ahead
into Wednesday. As this high continues to hover over the region,
humid conditions will persist across our CWA. Rain chances will
start to increase across eastern portions of our forecast area
thanks to northeasterly moist boundary layer advection. Elsewhere,
areas west of I-55 will remain fairly dry.

Dangerous heat conditions will continue across our entire forecast
area Wednesday through Thursday with heat indices between 106-110
degrees. This is supported by model consensus from both the GFS and
the Euro showing daytime highs in the mid/upper 90s, and dewpoints
in the mid to upper 70s with a few spots reaching the low 80s.
Wednesday and Thursday looks to be the hottest days with highs in
the upper 90s. While multiple areas across our entire forecast area
will have the best potential to see heat index readings in the 106-
110 range, there are a few isolated spots west of I-55 that could
see heat indices greater than 110 degrees. Because of this, no
changes have been made to the dangerous heat graphic for the
Wednesday/Friday timeframe and the "Elevated" risk will continue to
be advertised. Likewise, a "Limited" risk for increasing heat stress
will continue to be advertised for areas east and northeast MS.

Heat trends will continue to be monitored as we get through mid/late
week. Further adjustments to the heat graphic will likely be needed
heading into the mid week. if heat trends continue to increase, then
a "Significant" risk for dangerous heat will be introduce for areas
along and west of I-55 including portions of southeast AR and all of
our northeast LA parishes. In addition to the "Significant" risk
being introduced, heat advisories/warnings will eventually be needed
as well.

Afternoon/early evening showers and storms will provide some relief
from the heat. Both the GFS and the Euro continues to show
convection coming to an end by the evening hours each day as daytime
heating wanes. Global guidance is still showing a low pressure
system moving along the Gulf coast by the mid-week. At the moment,
the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is still monitoring for a low
probability (around 10-30% chance) of tropical development. With
tropical moisture pushing into the southeast region and PWATs in the
90th percentiles, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is still
highlight a "Slight" risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday and
Friday. Additional updated will provided as we get closer to the
late week. Rain chances will linger into Saturday afternoon/evening
with higher PoPs (around 50-85%) along and east of I-55. Rain
chances will linger heading into Sunday with decent PoPs (around
30-55%) across our CWA with slightly higher PoPs (around 60%)
across the Pine Belt. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

There may be a few areas of sub-VFR stratus during the early to
mid morning that briefly impact sites, but VFR conditions and
light surface wind will prevail otherwise. Diurnal TSRA coverage
should be more limited today with the subtropical high building
more squarely over the forecast area. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  97  76  95 /   0  10  20  60
Meridian      74  97  74  93 /  10  20  20  70
Vicksburg     76  97  76  96 /   0   0  10  30
Hattiesburg   77  97  75  92 /  10  50  40  90
Natchez       74  96  75  94 /   0  10  10  60
Greenville    75  96  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     76  98  77  97 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/CR/