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000
FXUS64 KJAN 112118
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
318 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...A COLD BREEZY NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-7 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANG FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30 SOUTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A 1032 HIGH CENTERED OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT BY FRIDAY EVENING OUT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH RAINSHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE
ECMWF DOES INDICATE NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SO WILL AT LEAST MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
RANGE FROM .50 TO 1.0 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CONTINUED TO CUT
HIGHS ON FRIDAY BELOW GUIDANCE DO TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP
AND ALSO CUT BELOW GUIDANCE PRECIP IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS/POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD./15/

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...FOR SAT-SAT NGT...LOOKS LIKE SOME LINGERING
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP WILL EXIST. DUE TO THIS CONTINUED WITH THE
CHANCE TO LOW END TYPE POPS WITH SOME INCREASE TO GUID VALUES ACROSS
THE SE.

FOR SUN-WED...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKED
REASONABLE AND HAVE FOLLOWED. EXPECT BELOW AVG CONDITIONS FOR
SUN-MON...THEN A WARMING TREND FOR TUE-WED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT HIGH
CIRRUS OVERSPREADING MOST SITES. A LOWER 7-8 KFT BKN/OVC STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE EAST ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN LA AND
SOUTHERN MS. KHBG WILL BE THE ONLY SITE AFFECTED BY THIS DECK FROM
22-03Z WITH IT EXITING TO THE SE AND ONLY HIGHER CIRRUS THEREAFTER.
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE 24HR PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH AT 5-10 KT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       27  52  26  52 /   0   0   0  12
MERIDIAN      25  55  21  53 /   0   0   0  11
VICKSBURG     26  50  26  50 /   0   0   6  22
HATTIESBURG   29  53  25  59 /   0   0   0  12
NATCHEZ       29  51  31  55 /   0   0   6  22
GREENVILLE    24  43  28  47 /   0   0   6  38
GREENWOOD     22  49  26  48 /   0   0   0  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/ALLAN