Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 220202 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
902 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING.
/27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE
GLH-GWO-GTR CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE
BREEZES BECOMING GUSTY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESSION TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS IT NOW RESIDES ALONG AN EAST NORTHEAST TO
WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE FROM NEAR JACKSON TENNESSEE TO MEMPHIS
TENNESSEE TO LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS AND TO MENA ARKANSAS.  THANKS IN
LARGE PART TO SUPPRESSION FROM RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN MEAGER THUS FAR
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD TREK...MAKING IT INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN`T BE
RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  MAV
GUIDANCE WAS QUITE DRY AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...AND IN LARGE PART I
AGREE WITH THIS.  HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...I DID INCREASE POPS TONIGHT JUST ENOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR
THEM IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DAY OF TRANSITION IN AIRMASSES ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS.  WITH THE FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INCREASED
NORTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY AND JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL BEGINNING OF FALL MONDAY EVENING
AT 0229Z. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH. THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...LOOK
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
MONDAY`S COLD FRONT...A DRY AIRMASS WITH PWS BELOW A HALF INCH WILL
RESIDE OVER THE CWA. A LARGE 1027MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL
LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR REGION. NORMAL HIGHS RUN NEAR 85 DEGREES
TUESDAY AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A DRIER AIRMASS... AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES AT MOST
SITES. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE AS
COLD AS TUESDAY MORNING. STILL...MOST SITES WILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT PWS WILL BE BACK ABOVE AN INCH AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS
EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AREAWIDE
NEXT SATURDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  85  53  84 /  15   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      64  85  50  85 /  15   4   0   0
VICKSBURG     61  85  52  85 /  15   4   0   0
HATTIESBURG   67  89  54  87 /  15   8   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  84  53  81 /  15   4   0   0
GREENVILLE    59  81  53  83 /  15   1   0   0
GREENWOOD     59  81  51  83 /  15   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







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