Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 230045

National Weather Service Jackson KY
745 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Issued at 745 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

Showers continue to move off to the northwest across the Bluegrass
region as a more steady shield of showers approaches far
southeastern Kentucky. This will overspread much of eastern
Kentucky this evening through tonight and much of Monday. While a
few thunderstorms will be possible this evening ahead of the brunt
of the lift associated with the potent upper low, progression of
this feature off to the east will bring more of a stratiform
nature to the rain in the deformation zone overnight. Given the
later arrival of rainfall and farther southward displacement of
the upper low, have decreased precipitation amounts. Areas across
southeast Kentucky still look to see an inch to inch and a half
total through Monday with lesser amounts farther west. Therefore
not foreseeing any need for flood headlines of any kind. Will
continue to highlight isolated heavy rain/minor flooding
possibility in the HWO.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 230 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

Current conditions across the area feature a break in the precip
as much of the incoming precip has dissipated as it passed through
to the north. With this, cloud cover is and will continue to be in
abundance and as such, temps have been slow to warm up across the
region this afternoon. Due to this, have lowered highs for today a
couple of degrees. Heading into this evening and tonight, as
expected, the ongoing event along the Gulf Coast has robbed alot
of moisture from advecting northward into the eastern Kentucky
and central Appalachian region. While some moisture will
eventually make it north as the parent low pressure system begins
to track up the coast, the lessened rainfall would not be as much
of a concern as once thought.

Thus, will reintroduce pops into the area again tonight as the low
tracks up the coast after 00z. With some lift moving in as well,
will keep a slight chance of thunder in the forecast but do not
expect is to be very prevalent. While rainfall is not as much as
previously expected, will leave the mention of brief heavy
rainfall in the HWO for over the head waters as a period of
banded precip may still move over eastern Kentucky but residence
time will be short as the feature will exit rather quickly. This
and the NAM and GFS still hint at a period of banded precip moving
over this region. This as well, while WPC keeps the Day 1
Excessive Rainfall marginal risk east of Kentucky, Day 1 and 2 QPF
totals still range in the 1.50 to 1.75 inch total.

The last of the wrap around moisture will exit eastern Kentucky
late Monday night with the bulk of the deep moisture exiting well
before cold enough air moving into the region will change the rain
over to a rain and snow mix on top of Black Mountain.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

The period will feature the completion of a large scale pattern
change, putting an end to our long stretch of above normal
temperatures, and marking the beginning of a run of below normal

The intense storm system currently in the deep south will have
progressed to the Mid Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning, and its
last influence in the form of cloudiness and perhaps a few showers
will be pulling out of the JKL forecast area during the day.
Ridging at all levels will pass over Tuesday night, with warm air
advection beginning before dawn. This will likely lead to
ridge/valley differences for lows. An intense low pressure system
heading northeast toward the Great Lakes will bring a tightening
pressure gradient locally, which could bring rising temperatures
by dawn on Wednesday, even in many valleys. One more mild day will
occur on Wednesday, ahead of the system`s cold front. That cold
front will arrive late Wednesday or Wednesday evening. Only modest
moisture return is expected before the front arrives, and little
or no precipitation is expected with fropa.

Our regime after fropa will feature persistent low level west to
northwest cyclonic upslope flow and cold air advection- a recipe
for clouds and when it`s cold enough, flurries and snow showers.
There will be multiple impulses moving through the flow aloft.
Trying to time these at long range is problematic. Have used an
extended period of very light precip potential, with some minor
peaks when a model blend shows the best agreement for embedded
upper level waves passing through the large scale trough. One
peak is on Thursday, and another on Sunday. On Thursday, temps
will still could be warm enough for rain or rain mixed with snow.
However, any precip in the remainder of the period should be snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)

While one band of showers comes to an end across the Bluegrass
region, another more widespread area of rain will move into
southeastern Kentucky while progressing northwestward through this
evening and tonight. A slim chance does exist for a lightning
strike through this evening, but not expecting near high enough
coverage/probability of this to warrant any mention of CB.
Ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR and IFR levels rather quickly
this evening/tonight, before in all likelihood becoming LIFR
Monday morning. Visibilities will drop to MVFR/IFR levels
underneath more moderate to locally heavy rain. Stratus build-
down will also help to keep visibilities sub-VFR for a period late
tonight into the day on Monday. May see some improvement toward
MVFR ceilings by late Monday afternoon, but currently expecting
IFR criteria to remain largely in place. Northeast winds will back
northwesterly through the night into Monday with speeds
increasing to 10-12 knots, while also becoming gusty at times.




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