Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 221750 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
150 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 120 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Did a quick update to fine tune T/Td and allow for some lingering
clouds through mid afternoon before fading fast toward evening.
These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. Also, sent out a
freshened set of zones earlier - mainly to remove
morning/afternoon wording.

UPDATE Issued at 1035 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016

14z sfc analysis shows low pressure, and its tight pressure
gradient, pulling away from Kentucky as high pressure moves into
the deep south. This will lead to improving conditions today as
chilly morning lows, in some places down in the upper 30s, will
climb into the 50s thanks to returning sunshine as the low clouds
shift off to the east. However, winds of 5 to 10 mph from the
northwest will keep an added chill in the air. At this time,
temperatures are running in the 45 to 50 degree range with
dewpoints generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Have updated
the near term forecast to infuse the latest CONSShort and
ShortBlend model guidance, fine tune sky cover, and tweak the T/Td
grids for the latest obs/trends. These updates have been sent to
the NDFD and web servers. Will likely issue a fresh set of zones
around noon as the lower clouds start to clear out of the east and
to remove morning wording in the ZFP.

UPDATE Issued at 759 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Freshened up the sky cover, temperatures, and dew points,
according to the latest trends in observations. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Surface high pressure is currently centered across Arkansas, with
ridging nosed north into the Great Lakes. An area of low pressure
is gradually pulling off of the New England coast. Aloft,
troughing is moving towards the Eastern Seaboard, with broad
ridging occurring across the Plains.

Heights will gradually recover across the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys through the short term, with the surface high pressure
sliding southeast, reaching the gulf coast states by Sunday.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will emerge from the Plains and
head east, dragging a cold front across the Ohio Valley by late

Partly cloudy and cool conditions will be on tap today across
eastern Kentucky, as highs struggle into the mid to upper 50s.
Skies will clear out tonight, with valleys down into the upper
30s. Southwest winds will engage on Sunday, with some gusts of
20 to 30 mph possible during the afternoon. Highs will be 10 to
15 degrees warmer than today, with upper 60s to lower 70s

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016

The forecast has a reasonable amount of confidence through the
upcoming week as models continue to align fairly well. It looks
like a dry cold front will sweep south Sunday night and Monday,
doing nothing more than keeping temperatures a tad cooler. Still
looks like highs should top out in the 60s both Monday and
Tuesday. Tuesday could be interesting as model soundings show
quite a bit of dry air just off the surface and we should be able
to mix deep into the dry air with relative humidities possibly
falling to 25 percent or lower. This could also help send our
afternoon temperatures higher, with a large diurnal swing
anticipated. Despite the chilly start with lows in the 30s Tuesday
morning, should still be able to pull off some mid 60s for highs.
Opted to keep frost out of the forecast given we really never tap
into the lower dewpoints until Tuesday afternoon. Dewpoints
generally above freezing typically support more fog. Frost might
be more possible in a few sheltered eastern valleys Wednesday
morning, but again, such low coverage not worth mentioning in the

Models are all trending sharper with a mid level trough pushing
across the area from late Wednesday through Thursday.  Forecast pops
have been increased to high end chance and likely for Thursday with
this forecast package.  Both the ECMWF and GFS support rainfall
totals exceeding a half an inch on Thursday.  I would imagine rain
chances will continue to increase with modest model agreement.  The
00z GFS is so much stronger with the feature on Thursday, it
actually generates a cut off low.  This solution has been very much
an outlier from previous model runs, and will maintain a faster
moving system with rain chances exiting Thursday night.  Plan to
leave the forecast dry into the following weekend per the ECMWF
solution with strong ridging building across the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

VFR conditions will be the rule throughout the period. Scattered
to broken stratocu in the 4-6k feet agl range will break up and
thin from west to east during the rest of the afternoon - SKC
conditions then follow through the night. Any fog will be
confined to the deepest river valleys towards dawn and not impact
the TAF sites. Northwest winds will continue at 5 to 10 kts, with
an occasional gust to 15 kts, through early this evening, before
diminishing thereafter. Winds will pick up again after mid morning
on Sunday with some gusts approaching 20 kts by afternoon under
clear/sunny skies.




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