Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 241525 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

15Z SFC FORECAST ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS MAKING FOR A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS THROUGHOUT EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND MIDDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POTENTIAL FOR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BEEF UP THE POPS
RIGHT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INTRODUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO KEPT
THE IDEA OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE SHOWERS ARE
CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS AS THEY PASS. THERE
IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 7 PM.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME ROOM TO GO UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OR SO BEFORE THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BRING THEM BACK DOWN...FOLLOWED BY CAA
FROM WEST TO EAST DROPPING TEMPS MORE DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZFP WITH THE HWO TO FOLLOW
TO ADD THE THUNDERS CHANCES. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. IT LOOKS LIKE DEWPOINTS
HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO HOLD STEADY. THIS HAS MADE FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER RH`S THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL WATCHING THE COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTING UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE FORECAST...SO EVERYTHING SEEMS ON TRACK
FOR A WINDY DAY. ITS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT SKIES HAVE
PARTIALLY CLEARED OFF THIS MORNING AND WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
SURFACE HEATING PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY HELP AID IN THE HIGHER EXPECTED WIND GUSTS. AS FAR
AS PRECIPITATION GOES...ALL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS EXPECTED AND THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. ON THEIR CURRENT TRAJECTORY...THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WRAPPED UP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS
INTO ARKANSAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS. AS THE FRONT TO THE WEST
CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AND
THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING
THE GUSTS UP SLIGHTLY...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE WINDS. A WEAK
WAVE WILL CROSS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST TODAY. HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WITH A GLANCING
BLOW...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE...CANNOT IMAGINE WE WILL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TODAY. AFTER A MILD
START...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

WHILE SOME MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE
FRONT...IT APPEARS BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FLOW NEVER BECOMES NORTHWEST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MOISTURE HANGING ON INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO IT LOOKS LIKE LESS
CLOUD COVER IS THE WAY TO GO. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...THE CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. RIDGING WILL
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT A COOLER
DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TRANSITIONING AN
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING WITH
TIMING AND EVOLUTION...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE
EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR A DEVELOPING EAST COAST
SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...WHILE THE
GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER EAST. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO MAKE IT IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. POPS HAVE COME UP
USING A BLEND...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL IN
VALLEYS...WITH MORE SNOW ON THE HIGHER RIDGES BORDERING VIRGINIA.

ONCE THIS MOISTURE EXITS LATER INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTWARD
MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH. BOTH MODELS HAVE PLAYED UP THE MOISTURE
WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN...THE GFS IS FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE THIS FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GEL A BIT BETTER. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE CHILLY WITH
HIGHS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING ANOTHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE RETURN FLOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME
PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END...WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS IN SOME PLACES. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEY COULD REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME
PLACES...THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS






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