Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 222359 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FEW SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER






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