Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 260511
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE WINTER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL COINCIDE WITH THE NORTHEAST
U.S. BLIZZARD. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH...STILL MILD THOUGH. YET COOLER AIR
MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE ARCTIC AIR PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AS IT
STEERS OFF EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND RAPIDLY TOWARD THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT A BAND
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT. MID LEVEL LIFT
IS VERY WEAK THOUGH...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CLOUDS. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT PASSES...AND EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR EARLY WITH NEAR OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT.

WARM AIR WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH H850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 14C WEST AND 8C TO 10C FOR AREAS FARTHER
EAST. WITH THE HELP OF WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS...EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. EXPECT NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN PLACES...AS TEMPERATURES
REACH THE 60S AT ALL LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 60S LIKELY IN A CORRIDOR
FROM THEDFORD...SOUTH THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...IMPERIAL AND
MCCOOK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE WARMED THE
H850 MB THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TUESDAY. GENTLE SOUTH
WINDS CONTINUE FORECAST WHICH WOULD LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING SO HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. THE NAM
SUGGESTED MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 875 MB. MIXING TO 850 MB WOULD
TIE THE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF 73. THIS BUILDING THERMAL
RIDGE...ONGOING MONDAY NIGHT WOULD LIKELY KEEP LOWS NEAR ABOVE
FREEZING WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD
MORNING. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WINDY AND COOLER DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW 500M AGL WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30
KT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE 25 TO 30 MPH WINDS AT THE SFC. THE BEST GUESS
ON HIGHS WEDNESDAY IS 50S TO NEAR 60. THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE AFTN.

A CHECK ON HIGH CLOUDS INDICATES VERY LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH JUST THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUS SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. LOWS
IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VERTICAL MIXING FROM
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTN. THE NAM DERIVED RADAR PRODUCT SUGGESTS LIGHT RETURNS
LATE WEDNESDAY BUT ZERO QPF IS SHOWN BY THE MODEL SO THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST IS DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
KEEPING COOLER AIR IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
FRIDAY WHICH RECYCLE THE COLD AIR NORTH AND LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS.
THESE SOUTH WINDS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE ECM AND
GEM WHICH SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. HIGHS IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WHICH COULD WARM INTO THE
40S SUNDAY IF THE HIGH MOVES OFF EAST. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW
ANY SNOW WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN
SHUNTED SOUTH BY THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THE COLDER AIR
IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF ONL-BBW BY 08Z AND UNLIMITED
CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND
INTO MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 300-330
DIRECTION WILL INCREASE TO 12-16G21-24KT BY 16Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...SPRINGER





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