Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 252332 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
632 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

About or at least 10 model data sets indicate fog redeveloping
tonight in about the same location. Recent rain...light east or
southeast winds...trapped moisture beneath weak high pressure and
modest dry air aloft should produce the fog. The models show some
high clouds moving in aloft associated with a disturbance crossing
the Rockies so it would appear conditions are less favorable for
dense fog than they were this morning. The forecast uses consall and
that product suggests a widespread dense fog event could be in the

The model consensus then suggests parts of Wrn Nebraska might see
enough forcing for scattered showers Sunday morning. Less than 1/10
of an inch of rainfall is expected. The forcing will translate
across the Rockies and then fall apart as the main upper low forms
Sunday across the Srn Plains.

Temperatures...dew points and wind are a blend of guidance plus bias
correction for lows in the 30s tonight and highs in the 50s Sunday.
Extensive mid and high level cloudiness is expected Sunday as a
storm cranks up across the Srn Plains. The temperature forecast
might be on the warm side by a few degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

An upper air disturbance will track through the Cntl and Srn Rockies
Tuesday and then swirl slowly through the Srn Plains. Some of the
models carry energy from this system north into Nebraska. These
would be the ECM and Canadian GEM while the GFS and GFS ensemble
track the system farther south across the Srn Plains. An upstream
disturbance will move in behind the system forcing it to lift
northeast and the models are handling this situation differently.

The south track allows sfc high pressure to build farther south into
Nebraska drying out the atmosphere. The forecast uses a blended
approach. Generally, the high pressure often wins and builds farther
south than suggested by the models which would favor the GFS soln.
Unfortunately the blended approach produces rain chances Tuesday
through Friday; a four-day soak.

The models are in good agreement with rain Tuesday. Thereafter the
forecast rain chances are largely based on the GEM and ECM as the
GFS is south. These rain chances last into Friday.

The GFS will fire off deep convection on the Texas coast and LA
which forces the sfc low to track through the mid south while the
GEM and ECM appear to show less. So if the GFS is correct than rain
chances are Tuesday and Wednesday. The ECM would indicate rain
Tuesday through Thursday and the GEM...Tuesday through Friday.

Pops are limited to chance...40 percent...after Wednesday given the
uncertainties in the models. Likely to definite pops are in place
Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow chances look slim to none using the GFS
model dominant icons. The ECM suggests some potential for snow which
has been accommodated.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

There are increasing high clouds over western Nebraska with a
large area of stratus with IFR cigs to the east of a line from
KANW to KBBW. This area of stratus will push west this evening and
affect both KVTN and KLBF taf sites after 6z. Cigs will lower into
IFR with IFR visibilities along the leading edge of the stratus
deck. Cigs will be slow to lift on Sunday morning with stratus and
fog lingering into late morning.




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