Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 272015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
315 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016


Aloft, the southern end of a shortwave moving through New England
is shearing out over Louisiana and Mississippi with a large upper
ridge building over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure
extends from the Carolinas westward through Louisiana. An inverted
trof is moving westward across the central and southern Gulf of
Mexico. A cold front is to our north across the Ohio and Middle
Mississippi River Valleys, but is not expected to move through the
area. Radar shows a narrow band of scattered showers and one or
two thunderstorms currently extending from the outer reaches of
Chandeleur and Breton Sounds to the coastal waters south of
Barataria Bay. There are very few small showers over land, and
most will not see rain at all. Temperatures were generally in the
low to mid 80s this afternoon, with dew points in the 60s at most



Southern end of upper trof will gradually break off over the
western Gulf of Mexico and move westward into Texas with upper
ridging building over the area for the weekend. Any precipitation
tonight is likely to be restricted to the coastal waters, with no
precipitation expected over the weekend. Once again, there will
be potential for patchy fog or areas of fog in the late overnight
and early morning hours for the next few nights. Not high enough
confidence in widespread dense fog to issue an advisory tonight,
primarily near and north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor.

Not a lot of variation in guidance temperature forecasts. Will
trend toward the lower end of guidance on low temperatures,
especially in areas that tend to have cooler overnight lows due to
drainage. 35



Expect upper ridging to continue over the northern Gulf of Mexico
for much of next week with little or no precipitation expected.
May see a small chance of precipitation at the end of next week as
the ridge eventually breaks down. Medium range guidance is fairly
similar for much of the week. Will trend toward the cooler
readings on overnight lows as has been the case for the last
several days. 35



Lower level clouds with bases mostly 035-050 should be mostly
scattered to occasionally broken the remainder of this afternoon
before dissipating around sunset. A few -SHRA developed near KBTR
and a few other very isolated locations around the forecast area,
and additional development is possible through 00z/7 pm. Any impacts
with regards to lowered VSBY should be brief or just in the vicinity
of the terminal, and not requiring a TAF amendment. Main concern is
the expectation of patchy to areas of fog later tonight into Friday
morning. Latest trends/guidance and 18z TAFS indicate MVFR to IFR
conditions will develop at nearly all TAF airports in the 06z-09z
period tonight and persist through 14-15z. Lower LIFR conditions are
possible, mainly at KASD, KHDC and KMCB. 22/TD



Will continue Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines over the
eastern outer coastal waters overnight as we are still seeing some
16-18 knot sustained winds at a few sites. Certainly a borderline
situation over the outer waters tonight and tomorrow. Not a
significant amount of change in the wind forecast over the open
waters through the weekend. Over the protected waters, winds have
been more in the 10-12 knot range, or less.

A persistent easterly fetch will continue to somewhat enhance
wave heights over the open waters over what would usually be
observed with the forecast wind speeds through the weekend. 35



DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


MCB  58  85  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  62  85  58  87 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  61  84  57  85 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  66  83  64  84 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  63  82  60  82 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  60  84  56  84 /  10   0   0   0



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