Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 311113
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT WILL BE ON FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY. BUT A COLD FRONT JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH TODAY. DEW PTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER IN MCB BY SUNRISE AND SHOULD REACH ABOUT 63
DEGREES BY AFTERNOON. DP TEMPS WILL LOWER IN SLIDELL AROUND NOON
AND TO THE SOUTH SHORE SHORTLY AFTER. THIS CONTRAST TO THE DP
TEMPS THAT WE HAVE BEEN UNDER LATELY WILL BE FELT. THIS WILL ALSO
DO TWO THINGS. ONE WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE SECOND THING WILL BE TO KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES DOWN. TIMING OF SH/TS HAVE BEEN OFF THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND THAT ALWAYS HAS A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPS AND THEREFORE HEAT
INDEX VALUES. BUT TODAY SHOULD NOT BE A TIMING ISSUE AS DRY AIR
WILL BE THE CAUSE OF LOWER HEAT INDICES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH BY SAT NIGHT BRINGING BACK THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP ALL SH/TS ACTIVITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT SO POP GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN SET ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...
SH/TS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BACK TO THE AREA ONCE THE COLD FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE WEEKEND...MOST SH/TS WILL
BE ACTIVATED BY C-BRZ AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION AT KHUM WHERE
SOME TEMPO MVFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT FOG.
MAINTAIN VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE AIRPORTS CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. 18

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TIDAL
AND EXTREME NEAR SHORE WATERS TODAY AND STALL. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THICKNESS 1000-700MB SHOW A 10 TO 15 METER DROP TODAY. NORTH WINDS
WILL KICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. THE STALLED COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST GULF AND YIELD A WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  96  70  95  70 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  92  72  94  70 /  40  10  10  10
MSY  93  78  93  79 /  40  10  10  20
GPT  93  74  92  71 /  40  20  20  20
PQL  94  75  91  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.