Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 170856
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
356 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

At the surface, high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley
southwestward into Texas. Aloft, a trough axis runs from the
Atlantic Coast to the north central Gulf of Mexico with ridging
near the 4 Corners area. Clear skies across the area this morning.
Northeast winds are fairly light, except downwind of warm water
sources, where wind speeds are 15-20 mph. Temperatures near those
warm water sources are generally in the 60s, with 50s elsewhere.
Dew points are in the mid 40s north half, 50s south half.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

High pressure will remain over the eastern half of the country at
the surface as upper ridging moves from the 4 Corners area today
to the Mississippi River Valley by the end of the week. No rain
expected through Thursday, with a couple degrees moderation in
temperatures each day. No large variances in temperatures between
guidance and previous forecast, so no significant changes made. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

Medium range models in much better agreement this morning with the
passage of a fairly deep trough through the area Sunday or Sunday
night. About 6-12 hours difference on timing, with the GFS being
the slightly faster guidance. This could bring a chance of rain
back to the area as early as Saturday afternoon, per the GFS
solution, but both models indicate Sunday is the best chance of
rain with high chance to likely POPs needed. The biggest question
mark will be Monday. The ECMWF solution would require fairly
healthy rain chances on Monday, while the GFS suggests a dry
forecast. Will go with lower POPs than the ECMWF suggests, but not
dry like the GFS. Will trend temperatures somewhat closer to the
GFS solution for the extended forecast. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR through 12z taf cycle.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds remain strong this morning behind a departing cold front. The
front is expected to remain over the mid gulf region along with a
broad general weakness in that area through the weekend. The
interaction between this area and strong high pressure to the
northeast will keep most of the coastal waters in moderate to strong
easterly flow through the week as well. The only areas that should
escape these winds will be Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Borgne and the
Mississippi Sound. This will begin to occur today as wind speeds
should rapidly fall from 20-25kt early this morning to 15kt by mid
morning then further ease to around 10kt by afternoon over the above
mentioned waters. Winds may remain 15-20kt over the remaining waters
through the week. There will be a diurnal fluctuation each day in
wind speeds with the highest being found overnight.

Advisory flags will be lowered this morning for all areas and
replaced with caution flags over waters south of a Lake
Pontchartrain to Mississippi Sound line. A few showers will begin to
make their way back to the coastal waters by Wednesday and should
gradually begin covering more of the area through the weekend
with a few thunderstorms moving back into the fcast as early as
Friday and lasting through a possible frontal passage by Sunday
evening.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  49  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  77  51  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  52  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  62  79  65 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  54  79  60 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  77  50  79  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$



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