Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 121042
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
342 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AS THE RIDGE CENTERS
ITSELF DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
AND NEARLY ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE EVEN MORE MONDAY...BUT MORE MOISTURE WILL FILTER IN AND ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE COMMON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL IN THE
FOLLOWING DAYS BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE
AREA ALLOWED SHOWER AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
LINGER IN NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS LIFTING OUT AS THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST BEGINS BUILDING IN OUR DIRECTION. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING
TODAY AND MOISTURE WILL BE DECLINING ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT...SO EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL NEVADA. WITH THE DECREASED MOISTURE AND INCREASED
SUNSHINE...NOT TO MENTION WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGHS SHOULD START
TO RISE.

ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL SIT DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. WHILE MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL NOT BE VERY LOW...WITH PW`S REMAINING ABOVE 1/2 INCH
IN MOST AREAS AND SOME ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY REMAINING ABOVE 3/4
INCH...THE SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO PREVENT
NEARLY ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A CAP SHOULD KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE LIDDED. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NONETHELESS...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGH 90S AND SOME LOW 100S IN THE VALLEYS. WITH A
TROUGH OFF TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO ALLOW
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY
ISOLATED.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THE
SUPPRESSION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN. THIS WILL
ALLOW BETTER MIXING...WHICH WILL BOTH PROMOTE HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING IN GREATER FREQUENCY. THE
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL ALSO BE PROMOTED BY AN INFLUX
OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. UNLIKE ON SUNDAY...WHEN
THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...THAT AREA
APPEARS LEAST LIKELY TO SEE STORMS ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. RCM

.LONG TERM...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. HOT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A PAC NW TROUGH NORTH OF
THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. INSTABILITY EACH DAY WILL BE
ONLY BORDERLINE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MONSOON
MOISTURE RETURNS AROUND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE OR WE`D HAVE NOTHING
AT ALL. EXACT LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS OPEN
FOR SOME DEBATE WITH DIFFUSE COMBINATION OF
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE. BROADBRUSHED POPS AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL TEND TO LIGHT
SPEEDS. GFS IS MORE EXCITED ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR QPF THAN THE EC.
TENDED TOWARD THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEPARTING MOISTURE WILL
ENABLE VCTS AROUND KEKO THROUGH AFTERNOON...-TSRA WILL BRIEFLY
APPEAR AT THE AIRFIELD...THEN TAPER OFF LATE AFTERNOON. KWMC AND
KELY...MIGHT SEE SOME OFF IN THE DISTANCE. KTPH...NO. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT... APART FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS TO NEAR 40 MPH
AROUND KEKO. CHARACTER OF RECENT CONVECTION SHOWS OUTFLOW WINDS
TRAVELING FAIRLY LONG DISTANCES...SO NEED NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORM
NEARBY FOR WIND SHIFTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL WANE TODAY AS MOISTURE
DECLINES AND HEIGHTS BUILD AS A RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING STARTS WILL BE
REDUCED...BUT NOT ELIMINATED AS SOME STORMS WILL STILL FORM AND
SOME WILL STILL BE DRY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY LIGHTNING-FREE AS
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY LIGHTNING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
MONDAY THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE DISTRICT...BUT HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WITH PW`S EXCEEDING 1 INCH
AND SLOW STORM MOTION SHOULD PROMOTE WETTING RAINS AND THUS KEEP
NEW LIGHTNING STARTS TO A RELATIVELY LOW NUMBER. MOISTURE WILL
LINGER MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
SEVERE WIND AND RH ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH PASSING SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF US
MAY CAUSE BORDERLINE CRITICAL CONDITIONS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

93/98/98/93




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