Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 311105
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
405 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. THEN NOVEMBER WILL START
OUT UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER. RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WITH SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO
SOUTHWEST NEVADA. A LINE OF CLOUDS WITH HIGHER TOPS ARE CRESTING
THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE AT THIS HOUR AND THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW FEATURE
HAS MOVED INTO NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE PERFORMING
OKAY BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXTENT
SOUTH AND THE FUTURE EASTERLY PROGRESSION OF THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW MORE DIGGING WITH THE TROUGH
THUS DELAYING PRECIPITATION ONSET AND COLD AIR INTRUSION.

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE
MOST PART. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST ONE MORE DAY.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR OVER FAR
WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY BEFORE THE DAY ENDS BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE VERY HIGH. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA. A WIND ADVISORY IN IN EFFECT AND BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO AGREE TO MOVE
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY PLACES. THERE MAY BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEVADA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION. THERE IS STILL AN
IMBALANCE OF JET ENERGY FAVORING THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FURTHER DIGGING. AS OF NOW...MODELS INDICATE THE
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO WESTERN NEVADA WITH A
CONTINUED STRONG WARM SURGE OVER EASTERN NEVADA. SNOW ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NYE COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MORE PRODUCTS FORTHCOMING WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WHEN BETTER
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR IS ASSESSED.

SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE ONSET OF A NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DEPARTING STORM WILL GIVE
WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO COOL NW FLOW...BUT WILL WARM
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ZONAL MOIST FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN
NEVADA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THIS MOIST ZONAL FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...QUICK AND DIRTY RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
NEVADA...BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPS. BY THURSDAY...IT BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AND A DRIER/CLEARER SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SOME NICE EARLY NOV DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING KWMC SEEING VCSH LATE FRIDAY EVENING. A BKN/OVC
DECK BETWEEN 15-20K WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON. TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN KELY/KTPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE. DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING POSSIBLE MVFR AND ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
IFR TO ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE DETAILS WILL BE
GIVEN IN LATER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS...WILL POSE A
CONCERN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457 BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/94/94



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