Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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133
FXUS65 KLKN 060919
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
219 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
NOW MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC. CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON TWO OF THE
MORE DISTINGUISHABLE SPOKES...ONE DOWN NEAR SAN DIEGO AND THE
OTHER OVER THE SIERRAS NEAR BISHOP CALIFORNIA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ERUPTED AROUND A STRONG WEST-MOVING H7 VORT LAST EVENING AS IT
WRAPPED ITSELF BACK AROUND THE UPPER LOW. HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED
IN KLOL FROM THE CELLS THAT PRODUCED THOSE STRIKES. THE MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING THAT A VERY PROGRESSIVE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA EN ROUTE
TO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. A WET AND COOL WEEKEND IS IN STORE.

MODEL AGREEMENT PROPOSES THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE INLAND AROUND
LOS ANGELES TODAY...OPEN UP AS A TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE TWIN-LOW
CIRCULATION BY SATURDAY...THEN ACCELERATE PAST THE 4-CORNERS AREA
OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY. AS THE MOIST CORE ROUNDS THE FOOT OF THE
SIERRAS THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY INITIALLY. INSTABILITY PEAKS TODAY
AHEAD OF THE LOW FEATURE AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD REACH
SCATTERED COVERAGE IN MOST PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS ELKO COUNTY TODAY...PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS AND HAIL. SIGNIFICANT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR NORTHERN NEVADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE TIP OF THE SILVER STATE AND EVOLVES OUT OF
ITS CLOSED POSTURE. BY SUNDAY THE MOISTURE TAP WILL HAVE ALL BUT
DISINTEGRATED. THERE WILL BE A RECURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS HOWEVER ISOLATED WILL BE MORE OF THE TYPE OF
PATTERN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
OVERALL...PATTERN TURNS MORE QUIET BUT NOT NECESSARY COMPLETELY
DRY WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE.

SPECIFICALLY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT DUG SOUTH TOWARDS THE CW
FROM PACIFIC NW AND DRUG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT. AFTER A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN NV...A
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FLOWS TURN
AROUND TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY...THE DRY AND COOLER CP AIRMASS TAKES ITS
TIME TO WORK ENOUGH SOUTH TO COMPLETELY TURN OFF THE SHOWER
CHANCES ON TUESDAY. EVEN SO...CHANCES ARE STILL VERY MINIMAL. BY
WEDNESDAY...500MB HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTH. PWATS/K INDEX FALLS BELOW .3 INCHES/15
FOR MOST AREAS...THUS ENDING SHOWERS CHANCES. ON THURSDAY...THE
500MB LOW THAT SWUNG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PULLS SOUTHWARD ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO ID AND MT. THIS 500MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
HIT THE NV/ID STATE LINE BY FRIDAY...GENERATING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN MAINLY EASTERN NV LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN
THIS TRAJECTORY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MOISTURE. PWATS/K INDEX
BARELY GET ABOVE .45 INCHES/25 SO KEPT POPS VERY LOW. NOW THIS IS
BASED MAINLY ON THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. THE EC
DOES NOT AGREE AS IT MAINTAINS WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
WITH A CLOSED OFF 500MB WELL OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CA. IT DOES
HOWEVER GENERATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR
FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO AVERAGE TEMPS ON
TUESDAY (60S TO NEAR 70) DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...HIGH
TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (70S TO LOW
80S). OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 30S THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MAINLY 40S THEREAFTER.

AS FOR WINDS....AFTER WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY...THEY
TURN TO THE NORTH AND REMAIN THAT DIRECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEY INCREASE OUT OF THE NW
BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH THE LAST PART OF THAT STATEMENT DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THEY SHOULD HOWEVER INCREASE IN SPEED BY FRIDAY.

&&

AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE AT SITES TODAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES AT
KWMC....HOWEVER DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE BEING SO-SO...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT TS DIRECTLY ON ANY OF THE FOURS SITES.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK DUE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY
EXCEED BANKFULL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. THE JARBIDGE
RIVER AND LAMOILLE CREEK ARE CONTINUING TO RISE AND HAVE BEEN
PEAKING IN THE EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR
SMALL STREAMS MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS THAT
COULD MAKE THEM IMPASSABLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/85/85



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