Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 221604
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
904 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW IS ON DECK AND WILL BRING GUSTY AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE SILVER STATE. EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEVADA ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. EXPECT A WARMING TREND
STARTING SUNDAY...WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
TUESDAY.


&&

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS AND ADDED THUNDER ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 211 AM /


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH A GLIMPSE OF A LOW CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THE PW FROM THE LATEST SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .64 WHICH
IS 114 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE GFS AND THE NAM BOTH HAVE A SWATH OF
ENHANCED PWS SPANS FROM WENDOVER TO WINNEMUCCA AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THAT RAPIDLY GETS SHUNTED TO THE EAST. THE NAM 12
CONTINUES TO PING INTO LOCAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
..WITH CAPE OVER 400 J/KG IN MULTIPLE ZONES ALONG WITH BROAD -2
LI`S. THE BEST CAPE IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF ELKO COUNTY...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH JET PLACEMENT. THE
PROGGED SOUNDING AT ELKO DOES NOT HAVE FAT CAPE BETWEEN -10 AND
-30C...EXPECTING HAIL FORMATION TO BE IN THE PEA TO DIME SIZE
CATEGORY. SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUE...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER PORTIONS OF THE LKN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
QPF ON THE GFS...SREF AND ECMWF...HAS SOME WHOLESALE
DIFFERENCES...BUT ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...ANTICIPATING AN ACTIVE
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. AS FAR A FLOODING THE CORFIDI VECTORS OVER
NORTHERN NV WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS. GUSTY OUTFLOWS ARE
POSSIBLE. AN INVERTED V IS STILL ON THE PROGGED SOUNDING FOR
ELKO...WITH A WINDEX OF 43 AT ELKO AND 40 AT ELY. EXPECT UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS TO DECREASE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM DENIO TO
AUSTIN TO INCREASE TO NEARLY 18 DAM OF GRADIENT AT 500MB. ROBUST
U-COMPONENT TODAY...AS THE JET CORE BARRELS INTO THE REGION...BUT
BELOW NPW CRITERIA. SATURDAY...THE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DRY FOR ALL OF THE CWA, QUITE THE
OPPOSITE FROM WHAT WE SAW EARLIER IN AUGUST.

BROAD TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD ON
SUNDAY, WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH PW WELL LESS THAN 0.50 INCH, SO
JUST A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

MONDAY...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS ON GFS, KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD. 00Z
ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH, ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GEM ALSO
DECIDEDLY MERIDIONAL WITH THE FLOW, DIGGING THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE DUE
SOUTH INTO NEVADA BY MONDAY NIGHT. GFS IS MUCH SHALLOWER AND
COMPLETELY DRY, AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. NO MATTER
THE SOLUTION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST,
COURTESY OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.

ALL MODELS AGREE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE GREAT BASIN, BEGINNING TUESDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND,
WITH AFTERNOON READINGS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES. REDUCED
ALL POP GRIDS TO NEAR ZERO AS THE RIDGE PHASES IN. SUMMER`S NOT DONE
JUST YET. BT

AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE FIRST
STRONG TROUGH OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY,
SPREADING GUSTY WINDS TO ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON, AND
-SHRA/TSRA TO NE NEVADA. CONVECTION MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT KEKO/KELY
DIRECTLY, SO WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR THOSE SITES IN THE 12Z
TAFS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MOST TSRA TO BE JUST EAST OF KEKO, NEAR
THE RUBY MOUNTAINS, WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACT AT KELY 19-03Z. BRIEF
MVFR AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KTS WITH EASTERN NEVADA CONVECTION.
WILL ONLY MENTION VCTS AT KWMC, AND KTPH WILL STAY DRY.

AFTER 18Z, STRONG GUSTY W/SW WINDS AT ALL SITES, AVERAGING 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS. BT

FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MAIN ACTION EXPECTED TODAY AND WETTING RAINS VERY POSSIBLE
TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH RHS
PREDOMINATELY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINE PRODUCTS
FOR THE FIRE WEATHER COMMUNITY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

90





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