Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 190924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
224 AM PDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm conditions are expected today. Then
another quick-hitting storm will bring some rain and snow showers
to the Great Basin on Friday. After a chilly start Saturday, high
pressure will bring improving conditions over the weekend. Most of
next week will be dry.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. Clear skies are prevalent
across much of the LKN CWFA this morning. However there are clouds
streaming into eastern Nevada developing off of a weak shortwave
trough now moving across the southern part of the state. Dry
conditions will continue for one more day, then a fast-moving
cold front will bring a mix of valley rain and snow, along with
several inches of snow above 6000 feet on Friday. The models have
slowed this system down a bit but are consistent in that aspect.

Today through this evening. Dry conditions will continue. The weak
upper low moving across southern Nevada will continue moving east
and cloudy conditions this morning over White Pine County should
dissolve over time as the day wears on. Mean low pressure will be
dropping south from the Aleutian Islands and a trough axis will
be nearing the California coast by this evening. Precipitation
banding will begin along the northern California and Oregon
coastal areas then move inland during the evening. Winds will be
increasing over Humboldt County this afternoon and will touch
advisory level towards the western part of the county. A
strengthening southwest flow ahead of the trough will also allow
high temperatures to reach their potential. High temperatures will
be in the 70s.

Midnight tonight through Friday evening. A low pressure trough
will pass through the Silver State. The models are still showing
this system to be a quick hitter however on each model run there
is more of southerly extent of the precipitation trajectory and
the system gets colder. Snow levels are modeled lower, and model
QPF indicates up to 4 inches of snow possible at the 6000 feet
level, essentially the valley floors of where the QPF is
focused...northern Elko County. At this juncture, precipitation
chances will be highest north of Interstate 80 with an emphasis on
northern Elko County and Humboldt County however precipitation is
expected to reach south of highway 50. Snow levels will drop to
near 5500 feet across northern Nevada late Friday afternoon as the
precipitation tapers off. Interstate 80 through the Pequops and
Silver Zone Pass could be a travel concern late in the day as the
front moves through, even though the daytime passage of the front
will reduce the impact on the roadway. The trough axis will be
east of the state by late evening and the storm will wind down.
High temperatures will range from the 40s across Elko County to
the 50s across Humboldt County, and the 50s south of highway 50.
Low temperatures will be in the 30s.

Midnight Friday through Saturday. There may be some fog
development in the morning as the air mass stabilizes in a moist
environment. Then as the Pacific ridge tries to reconstruct,
there will be a surge of Pacific moisture crossing Oregon and
northern Nevada, modeled to dirty the ridge crest and will
possibly instigate some shower activity near the Oregon and Idaho
borders with Nevada. High temperatures will generally range from
the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Low temperatures will be in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday.

After some leftover showers near the Idaho border Saturday night,
ridging begins to rebuild into the West. By Monday, an
unseasonably strong 595 dm upper high will dominate, bringing dry
conditions and high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal,
reaching into the 70`s for the warmest valleys through at least
the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...Afternoon/evening Southwest winds will gust to around
25kts KWMC and near 20kts KEKO. South winds 20kts expected at
KELY. Frontal band with rain showers will arrive at KWMC by the
end of the TAF period, 12Z Friday.


Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Friday for
Humboldt County.



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