Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 222246
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
246 PM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT. WITH
PATCHY FREEZING FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING IN SOME
OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I80.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING
ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT...WITH THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA ESPECIALLY
IN ELKO COUNTY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
THERE WILL BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT HOWEVER THE EC IS STILL COLDER...STRONGER AND A FEW
HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL MODELS INCREASING QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO TRAJECTORY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
GENERALLY EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. THE
CIPS ANALOGS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOWED 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WITH 700MB ANOMALIES OF 2-3 SHOWN ON
NAEFS ALSO EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY SO
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MODELS SHOWING VERY STRONG MSLP
GRADIENT OF UP TO 10MB OR BETTER ACROSS CWA SO HIGH WIND WARNING
MAY ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXISTS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST NEVADA. MOISTURE AND ENERGY DIVING TO
THE SOUTH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NORTH OF I80. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR
THE MOST PART. BY THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRYING TO SEND ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY OUT THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A 10% PROBABILITY OF FZFG OVER KEKO...AND HAVE USED VCFG
WORDING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN WANING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT LESS THAN 15 KT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NYE
COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

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