Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 240951
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
251 AM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather will continue through Memorial Day
weekend as a series of upper level disturbances rotate around a
persistent trough over the western U.S. Expect cooler than normal
temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances each day.
.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. Water Vapor and IR satellite
imagery continue to show and upper level low in southern
Saskatchewan and trough axis extending back towards northern
California. First low is currently pushing into the Great Basin
with another low off the California coast. Isolated rain showers
this morning are currently over White Pine and eastern and
southern Elko counties extending back to northwest Nye county.
Today. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase during
the late morning and afternoon hours. Instability will be greater
than over the past few days, but thunderstorm activity should
remain below severe criteria today as shear is low. With the cold
temps aloft, some small hail and gusty winds will be possible.
Heavier rain is possible with activity as overall storm motion
will be slow. The heaviest rain is expected from Elko county back
towards NW Nye county.
Wednesday. Expect more widespread showers and thunderstorms as
low pressure pivots around the base of the trough in southern NV.
The bulk of the showery activity will shift very slightly east
from Tuesday, mainly the Ruby Mountains back towards NW Nye county
and points eastward. Instability and lift is similar to Tuesday,
so some of the storms could again produce small hail, gusty winds
and heavier downpours.
Thursday. Low pressure and parent trough shift eastward towards
the Four Corners region. More showers and thunderstorms are
expected over eastern NV, while western NV will begin to clear out
and only see a slight chance of lingering showers. Cool northwest
flow is expected behind the departing system. Winds will be breezy
but should remain below advisory criteria.
With the abundant cloud cover and showery activity today through
Thursday, daytime temperatures will struggle to reach 60 in a lot
of places across northern NV. A small uptike in high temps is
expected for Thursday as we begin to see some clearing behind the
.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday. The mean upper trough will
remain over the western United States through the period. This
will keep high temperatures below normal with highs generally in
the 60s. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
each day with the focus across eastern NV during the afternoon
and evening hours.
.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected, but could see MVFR
conditions in heavier showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours.