Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
000
FXUS65 KLKN 022100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY. NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT FEW CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS...SUNNY
WARM AFTERNOONS AND CLEAR COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, WITH ONLY A FEW LONELY
CIRRUS DRIFTING BY. VIGOROUS TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, FILTERING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO THE
STATE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO HANG UP STATIONARY ALONG/SOUTH OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 50, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY, COMPARED TO TODAY`S READINGS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL GENERATE A NOTICEABLE W/NW BREEZE AT 10-20
MPH. A FABULOUS LATE SUMMER DAY, WITH ONLY SOME CUMULUS EXPECTED
ON THE CENTRAL NEVADA CONVERGENCE ZONE, AND ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COOL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA, WITH THIS BEING THE SECOND NIGHT AFTER THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRIER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
PLENTY OF ROOM TO FALL THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS NEAR 40 COMMON
IN THE POPULATED VALLEYS. COLDER VALLEYS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE
30S, WITH THE COLDEST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING A LIGHT FREEZE.
AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY TO GENERATE FROST, WITH MAX RH OF ONLY
50-60%, SO SEE NO NEED FOR A HEADLINE. ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL SUFFICE, BUT GETTING TO BE THAT TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY, WITH FEW CLOUDS,
LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. JUST ENOUGH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THE CENTRAL NEVADA
CONVERGENCE ZONE, WITH PERHAPS A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.
CERTAINLY NO RAIN EXPECTED.  BT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR NEVADA WITH LITTLE TO DISCUSS.
WEAK TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL KEEP NEVADA IN WEAK UNEVENTFUL
DRY SW FLOW FRIDAY. MONSOON WILL BE ALIVE AND WELL JUST TO OUR SE
ACROSS ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND, BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW
SKIPPING ACROSS NW NEVADA SUNDAY, WHICH WILL PULL MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TO PERHAPS GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK. ECMWF QPF FIELDS
SUGGEST CONVECTION IN SE WHITE PINE COUNTY SUNDAY, WHILE GFS IS
MUCH DRIER AND FURTHER EAST WITH ITS MOISTURE PLUME. WILL KEEP
GRIDS AND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. 12Z ECMWF ALSO MUCH STRONGER WITH
A SHORTWAVE ENTERING NEVADA NEXT MONDAY, WITH OTHER MODELS AGAIN
MUCH WEAKER AND DRIER. WILL AGAIN LEAVE FORECAST DRY, AS DRY NW
FLOW WILL LIKELY END UP PREDOMINATING. DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL
CHANGE LITTLE, WITH WARM SUNNY AFTERNOONS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WITH COOL NIGHTS IN THE 40S.  BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER 18Z WED,
W/NW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT AT KWMC/KEKO. SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE STALLED FRONT AT KTPH/KELY, AGAIN 10-20
KTS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KELY WHERE SW WINDS WILL GUST
27-29 KTS.  BT/JRM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NEVADA TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS A STRONG TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF NEVADA. FEW IF
ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 5-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FWZ
WEDNESDAY, COMPARED TO TODAY`S READINGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH W/NW WINDS
10-20 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, AND SW WINDS PERSISTING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF FWZ 455 AND 457. IN FACT, SW WINDS WILL
GUST NEAR 30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF FWZ 455 WEDNESDAY, BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A RED FLAG ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...DRY AIRMASS WITH MIN RH OF 8-14%, BUT WITH LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN CENTRAL NEVADA WILL
GENERATE A CUMULUS FIELD, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES. 12Z NAM SUGGESTS ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION IS
MOST LIKELY NEAR EUREKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE IF ANY
WILL BE MINIMAL.  BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/94/99




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.