Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 250442
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Flight conditions will be predominately VFR, although there is a
small chance of -TSRA in the vicinity of any of the terminals this
afternoon and evening. Surface winds will generally be light
outside of any storm activity, and a weak outflow boundary may
bring a wind shift through the terminals this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 936 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Regional radars show an outflow boundary pushing out ahead of
convection across the western TX/OK Panhandles and northeast New
Mexico late this evening. This outflow will advance into the far
northwestern zones shortly and likely stall out somewhere across
the northern zones later tonight. We can`t rule out isolated
convective development along/behind the outflow boundary later
tonight, though the cooling/stabilizing boundary layer will likely
limit this threat. Hopefully this remnant boundary coupled with
increasing tropospheric moisture and heating/destabilization
Monday will provide a greater risk of storm development locally
Monday afternoon and evening. The ongoing forecast has a good
handle on this and no adjustments have been made to the forecast
ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours, however there
is a low chance of -TSRA for any of the terminals, mainly in the
18 UTC to 00 UTC time frame on Monday. A weak outflow boundary
will likely bring a wind shift through KCDs early Monday and
possibly KPVW and KLBB later in the day but the timing is very
uncertain.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Subtle increase in moisture was underway this afternoon courtesy of
broader southeasterlies at the surface. Subsequent increase in
cumulus will be all this moisture can muster today as lift and
instability are both lacking. However, this is not the case in the
Panhandle where a SW-NE oriented surface trough should focus some
storms later today. Some portion of this activity should continue
through the overnight in a loosely organized fashion, perhaps
reaching our far northern row of counties with time where a slight
chance of precip remains in the offing. Remnant trough, outflow
boundaries and some differential heating from leftover cloud debris
could focus even better chances for storms across our northern zones
by Monday afternoon, but this is contingent on overnight activity
and as a result PoPs are being kept on the conservative side for now.
Otherwise, a bit more cumulus and slightly lower thicknesses by
Monday will temper highs a few degrees from today.

LONG TERM...
The center of the upper level high is expected to continue to shift
westward this week becoming established over the Great Basin by
Wednesday morning.  The synoptic scale flow will become a bit more
amplified across the CONUS with cooler temperatures across the
Eastern USA.  A easterly wave off the Gulf of Mexico will serve to
increase moisture and lift across the region into Tuesday
triggering an increase of PoPs. Rain chances will actually start
ramping upward Monday evening thanks to increased moisture and
more southeasterly surface fetch. Mainly afternoon and evening
storms look to be possible just about every day thereafter.
Convection will likely be driven by previous day`s activity. With
the increasing rain chances come cooler temperatures with highs
trending closer to climatology through mid-week. However, by next
weekend, drier weather and warmer temperatures should return.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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