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000
FXUS64 KLUB 040144 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
744 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA....ALTHOUGH THERE/S BEEN SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT FROM LEA
COUNTY NEWD INTO YOAKUM. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS RUNNNING FROM THE
TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH-CENTRAL TX...CUTTING ACROSS THE SE SPLNS AND
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  30  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  40  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  40  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  40  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

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