Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 041715
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1215 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. SURFACE
WINDS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY THURSDAY BUT STILL LIGHT.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...
HI AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER DRIVER FOR TODAY
WHICH WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT AND TRANQUIL FOR MAY.  WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS TODAY...WHICH IS DOWNRIGHT LOW FOR
WEST TEXAS IN MAY...AS A H7 SPEED MAX OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND ALSO QUITE DRY. GIVEN
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
WINDS GET A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING THE
WEATHER HARDENED PEOPLE OF WEST TEXAS ARE NOT USED TO SEEING ON A
NICE DAY.

LONG TERM...
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY PROVIDING SEASONAL TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AS THE CLOSED LOW ENCROACHES ON OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. WEAK
UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW ACCOMPANIED WITH MEAGER MOISTURE WILL BE
AIDED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT TO INITIATED ELEVATED STORMS
THAT WOULD LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH OUR CWA ON FRIDAY WHICH
CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN IN THE POPS.

CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD FOUR
CORNERS ON SATURDAY WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS OVER A DEVELOPING DRYLINE
THAT LOOKS TO POSITION JUST WEST OF THE I27/87 CORRIDOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PWATS PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON JUST SHORT OF AN INCH
EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS OUR AREA. STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE
SURFACE MODERATE UP THE COLUMN BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPPING
INVERSION...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE WOULD SEEM TO BE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME STRONG QUICKLY. HEALTHY HODOGRAPHS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY IF MORE MOISTURE
CAN REACH THE CAPROCK OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVECTION LINGERS IN
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR INVADES FROM THE
WEST AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY. SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY HAVE A STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN THEIR VICINITY SUNDAY FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. FLOW BECOMES ESSENTIALLY ZONAL BEHIND
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WHICH WILL PROVIDE SEASONAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE AFTERNOON WINDS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05


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