Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 240531
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1131 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.AVIATION...
No changes from previous forecast with wind speeds remaining the
aviation concern for the duration of the forecast. Expect winds
to increase steadily late tonight through Tuesday late morning
with speeds and gustiness peaking Tuesday afternoon. Patchy
blowing dust at/near terminals remain a possibility, but should
remain above the MVFR category. Winds will slowly decrease late in
forecast. Otherwise, VFR conditions should be anticipated. JH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 608 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

AVIATION...
Strong and gusty winds, briefly above 35 kts at times, will be
the primary aviation concern at area terminals from mid-morning
through sunset Tuesday. Although there may be patchy blowing dust
at or near the terminals during that period, do not anticipate
visibilities dropping into the MVFR category at this time.
Therefore, VFR conditions are anticipated at all three terminals,
KLBB, KCDS and KPVW for the duration of the forecast. JH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Upper level height falls and surface pressure falls will be most
concentrated spreading out of eastern Colorado into western Kansas
late Tuesday morning into the afternoon as an upper low deepens
heading out of the Rockies. Subsidence will spread into the region
near daybreak Tuesday just behind a Pacific cold front passing
through late tonight. The main wind core aloft is still expected to
pass east of the area as well near daybreak. But we should be able
to mix deeply close to 700 millibar and tap into 30 to 40 mph winds
not far off the surface. Still believe the threat of high winds is
relatively low. But confidence is high enough that we are issuing a
wind advisory for most of the area from 11 am until 6 pm Tuesday.

Tonight will see a thin band of high clouds pass overhead. Surface
pressure gradient will be tightening through the night, so should be
breezy at times and mild for mid winter. RMcQueen

LONG TERM...
Upper level flow will become zonal this week through the first half
of the weekend. This will keep the region dry and largely an
uneventful weather pattern. The upper level zonal flow will not
break until late weekend as an upper level ridge builds in the
western CONUS leading to more amplified flow. A weak cold front will
slide into the area Wednesday morning followed by a stronger push of
surface ridging on Friday. This will lower temperatures only briefly
for Friday before rebounding over the weekend into early next
week.

FIRE WEATHER...
A dry and windy day looks like a sure thing for Tuesday as mentioned
above. The Pacific cold front passing early in the day will draw
notably cooler air through the area. Some of the cooling will be
offset by downsloping with a fairly pure westerly low level wind
component maximizing the downslope influence. Yet, even leaning
significantly towards warmer and drier solutions, our relative
humidity forecasts tomorrow remained near or only slightly under 20
percent. Still would not be at all surprised to see an even drier
airmass take hold, and produce at least pockets of Red Flag
conditions. But an elevated Fire Danger situation still looks most
likely on Tuesday. Stay tuned though. Could change. RMcQueen
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ021>042.
&&

$$

02



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