Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 250540 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY,
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SO HAVE PUT VCSH IN FOR KAPF TAF SITE BETWEEN 19Z
AND 00Z. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED AS PREDICTED WITH MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NOW LEFT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF AS STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS INCLUDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
WINDS IN LAKE OKEE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MAIN CONCERNS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
WITH NUMEROUS RESCUES REPORTED TODAY. ALSO, PATCHY FOG MIXING WITH
SMOKE FROM INLAND FIRES ALONG ALLIGATOR ALLEY IN INLAND COLLIER COULD
RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT SO AMENDED HWO TO REFLECT POTENTIAL
ACCORDINGLY. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS TODAY DIMINISHED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT KPBI AND KAPF...THEN SHOULD
BE DRY THROUGH 4-6Z. THEREAFTER...ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED...BUT MAINTAINED EXISTING VCSH. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
MONDAY...BUT STILL OVERALL POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT. EAST WINDS
DOMINATE...10-15 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN 15-20 KT MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DESPITE THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST FOR THIS COMING
WEEK THE H5 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY AROUND -8C FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE WEEK SINCE THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
FRACTION OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS FORECASTING EXTREME VALUES RANGES
BETWEEN 97% AND 100% BETWEEN MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE CORE OF THE H5 HIGH PRESSURE. THIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE CENTER. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM EAST TO WEST. VERY DRY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY BETWEEN H5 AND H7 AS THE TROUGH IN THE WEST
MOVES EASTWARD AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC GETS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
DRY AIR WEAKENS SOMEWHAT FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY.

SURFACE TO H5 WINDS STAY EASTERLY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SURFACE ESTERLY WINDS START DECREASING AFTER WEDNESDAY.
BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS TIGHTEST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR WINDS. HOWEVER, CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT COULD PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY
MORNING.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES IN EFFECT BETWEEN NOW AND
TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  88  77  87 /  20  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  88  78  86 /  20  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  89  76  87 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           74  94  70  92 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...54/BNB


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