Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 071931
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
331 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT AFFECTED THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST HAVE MOSTLY ENDED. THERE IS ONE LARGE CELL
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE METRO AREA OF SOUTHERN BROWARD
AND NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
CELL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MIAMI-
DADE AND POSSIBLY BROWARD METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
A CONVERGENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF GRAND BAHAMA OVER THE
NORTHEAST REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TUTT LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MEANDER THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN GET STRETCHED
EAST/WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLIDE SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 1.4-1.6 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...OR AROUND THE 10TH-25TH PERCENTILE. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
EACH MORNING BELOW THE INVERSION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. DRY AIR AND UNFAVORABLE FLOW WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REGION. HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND EAST COAST TROUGHING TRIES TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT. KAPF TAF SITE SHOULD SEE THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE SETTING UP AFTER 18Z WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS BEFORE
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 23Z TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER KAPF TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THEREFORE...VCSH
WILL IN PLACE FOR THE EAST COAT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VCTS FOR KAPF TAF SITE. THE CEILING AND
VIS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE CEILING AND VIS COULD
FALL DOWN INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM AT KAPF
TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE TIMING SHOULD BE LESS THAN 30
MINUTES. SO WILL KEEP THE CEILING AND VIS IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME FOR KAPF TAF SITE.


&&

.MARINE...
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS BELOW 3 FT WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  90  79  91 /  10  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  89  80  90 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            79  91  80  91 /  10  20  20  20
NAPLES           76  93  75  93 /  30  60  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI


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