Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 010028
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
828 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER IS QUIETING DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
EXCEPT IN THE LAKE REGION, WHERE THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS
CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN THAT AREA IS MUCH
QUIETER THAN AN HOUR AGO. GIVEN THIS, AND LOOKING AT THE GFS,
ECMWF, AND THE HRRR, HAVE LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED WEATHER FROM
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OTHER WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  30  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  10  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  10  60  30  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG


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