Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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498
FXUS62 KMFL 141708
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1208 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST CAUSING THE WINDS TO
TURN TO THE EAST TODAY. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
HELP TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING,
WHICH WILL BRING SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, FOR NOW, A QUIET WEATHER DAY FOR TODAY. ONLY A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND EASTERLY THROUGH
TONIGHT, AND THE TURN THE WIND SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW, AS WELL AS
BRING SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS WELL, BUT IS TO UNCERTAIN FOR ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, WITH N/NE WINDS FILLING IN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND
THE FRONT. COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE A SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT
IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE PALM BEACHES IN THE LOWER 60S.
MEANWHILE, READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE BEING
OBSERVED AROUND AND WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS WELL AS OVER
COLLIER COUNTY. THIS IS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRIGID AIR MASS
IMPACTING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, BUT OBVIOUSLY IN A
DRASTICALLY-MODIFIED STATE THIS FAR SOUTH.

TODAY...COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL STREAM ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA IN DEEPENING NE FLOW.
BASICALLY LOOKING AT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR METRO SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. A COUPLE
OF SPRINKLES WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE EAST COAST
LATER TODAY, BUT NOT OF SIGNIFICANCE AND NOT WORTHY OF A POP
MENTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH A STEADY NORTHEAST BREEZE AND LESS SUNSHINE THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

TONIGHT/MONDAY...E/SE FLOW BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. AS
IS USUAL WITH A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW, SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHEST SHOWER COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST
FROM MIAMI TO WEST PALM BEACH IN A SOUTH/NORTH CORRIDOR, WHICH IS
THE TYPICAL PATTERN IN SE FLOW. HOWEVER, EXPECT AVERAGE
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
RATHER SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH LOWS 50S/60S AND
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS OF A LOWER-AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BEGAN YESTERDAY CONTINUE WITH THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS. THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL US INTO THE
TN/OH VALLEY LATE ON MONDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE SAME REGION. THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM`S LOCATION HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DRIVING ENERGY
REMAINS DISPLACED WELL OFF TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS FLORIDA REMAINS WEAK. IT EVEN LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AS WELL, AND THE FAST
MOVING FRONT ONLY BRINGS PRECIP TOTALS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
ON AVERAGE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW DRY
AIR ABOVE 800 MB AS THE MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS FAILS TO TAP
INTO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE WHICH HAS THE FAVORED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REGION ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA, WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE/NEUTRAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS. THE END RESULT IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS (NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME), WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MID/LATE WEEK)...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH A REINFORCING HIGH OVER THE
EAST COAST BECOMING DOMINANT LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME, MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF,
KEEPING ANY ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH. WEATHER WILL
BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S DURING THE
DAY AND UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR LOWS. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED, WITH A BREEZY NE/E FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
INCREASE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY, THEN
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20 KNOTS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY, AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  76  69  81 /  20  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  65  76  71  81 /  20  40  40  30
MIAMI            64  76  70  81 /  20  30  30  30
NAPLES           58  77  64  77 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...13/SI



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