Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 311522
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1022 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
WIND AND SEAS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND WAS ABLE TO CANCEL SCA FOR THE WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COUNTY COAST. SEAS ARE CONTINUING AROUND 7 FEET AND
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH AND SCA THERE WILL PERSIST UNTIL
00Z THIS EVENING WITH A SCEC STATEMENT FOR BISCAYNE BAY, THE PALM
BEACH WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. ALL OTHER CONDITIONS
ARE STATUS QUO WITH THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUING TO INDICATE A
VERY STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT SO RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NIL. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING NICELY WITH EXPECTED READINGS
THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS, PERHAPS GUSTING TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL BE THE PRODUCT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO GA/SC LATER TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
AROUND 10 KTS, MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 5KFT
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...

THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE (1033 MB) CENTERED NEAR THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION. A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR AND INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NNE WILL FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE MID 40S FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING OVER THE AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
REMAIN IN THE 50S OVER THE METRO/COASTAL AREAS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO
700 MB QUICKLY VEERING TOWARD THE EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS RETURN FLOW COMBINED WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE
TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAIN
STATES, THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS UPPER ENERGY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION AND THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SSW FLOW,
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS,
MAINLY OVER THE LAKE/PALM BEACH REGION. THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
INDICATES TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 5-10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 80S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUING. THE
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF SHOW A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING EWD ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST REGION AND PHASING W/ THE
NRN STREAM AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS UPPER ENERGY WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
EMERGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, A GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES THIS
SURFACE REFLECTION OVER THE WESTERN GULF QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD
OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO/GULF COAST AREAS AND DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH AND MUCH
FASTER THAN THE GFS SOLUTIONS. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THIS LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT AND ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLY BACK TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.


MARINE...

A RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOWED 20-25 KT NRLY
WINDS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
CAROLINA COAST TO THE NRN PALM BEACH WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
COASTAL STATIONS AT JUPITER INLET/LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SETTLEMENT
POINT HAVE JUST BEGUN TO RECORD NRLY WINDS NEAR/AROUND 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE LATEST WIND AND HIRES WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE INITIALIZED WELL
WITH THIS PATTERN AND REFLECT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE TRENDING DOWN SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE NOT FORECAST TO
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME, WINDS
WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ADDING SCA
HEADLINES ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH AND MOVE OVER THE MARINE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS FILLING IN
BEHIND IT.

THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC RIP CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES HAZARDOUS
RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN LIKELY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEACHES FROM JUPITER INLET TO MIAMI. AS A RESULT, THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THESE EAST COAST
BEACHES.


AVIATION...

INCREASING NNE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TOWARD
THE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  62  75  67 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  64  74  68 /  10  10  10  20
MIAMI            72  63  75  68 /  10  10  10  20
NAPLES           74  56  76  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.