Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 310756
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
356 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ASCD WITH PASSAGE OF A
STRONG JET FEATURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA HAVE CLEARED THE AREA. A
FEW SPOTS OVER NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY AND THE CAPE AREA EXPERIENCED
45 TO 55 MPH WINDS WITH PSG OF THE EARLIER STORMS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AHD OF THE PSG OF THE INITIAL FRONT
WHICH HAS CROSSED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS EARLY
HOUR. RAIN CHCS WL END OVER ALL LAND AREAS BY MID MORNING AS
DRYING BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT BECOMES PREVALENT OVER THE WHOLE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FROM AROUND METRO ORLANDO NWD
WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURGE
SWD OF DRYER AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR AIR BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONT WL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TONIGHT TO REACH THE 50S BY DAYBREAK SAT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...
STRONG CONTINENTAL RIDGE DROPPING OUT OF MANITOBA WILL PUSH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL FL. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME IT
ARRIVES...DRY AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL HAVE BEEN IN PLACE FOR A
SOLID 24-36HRS. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE SCOURED OUT BY DEEP AND
PERSISTENT WRLY FLOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

TIGHT PGRAD WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE
BUILDS ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH A STORM SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO DVLP OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. A FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE
WILL PUSH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL FL WITH MOST AFTN HI
TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM MORE THAN 10F FROM THEIR MORNING MINS...
READINGS IN THE M/U60S WILL BE ARND 15F BLO AVG.

CAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E OF
THE MS RIVER...WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS AND DVLPS INTO A FULL BLOWN NOR`EASTER. TEMPS IN THE
L/M40S OVER MOST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE ARND 15F BLO AVG AND MAY
APPROACH RECORD MINS BY BY DAYBREAK.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES...SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE N/NE THRU THE DAY...THEN TO THE NE OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE MSUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70F MARK
OVER MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SHOULD WARM
INTO THE L70S. THE NE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH MODIFIED OCEAN AIR
ONSHORE WHILE THE PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT DECOUPLING.
MIN TEMPS 5-10F WARMER THAN SAT BUT STILL 5-10F BLOW AVG...U40S/L50S
INTERIOR AND M/U50S ALONG THE COAST.

MON-THU...
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEK AS THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE A
PUSHES INTO THE W ATLC. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS
TO RECOVER TO NEAR AVG BY MID WEEK...MIN TEMPS A FEW DEG ABV AVG.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY CONCENTRATE BLO H85 TO FOR ISOLD
SHRAS TO DVLP...BUT THESE RARELY HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...
ESPECIALLY AS CAPPING IN THE H85-H70 LYR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NEXT 24H.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT WINDS ASCD WITH APPROACHING STRONG FRONT. SCA WL COMMENCE
OVER ALL MARINE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE LCL ATLC BY MIDDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NW
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN ITS WAKE...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 4-6FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE...DOMINANT PDS AOB 6-8SEC.

SUN-TUE...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLC/DEEP SOUTH THEN INTO THE W ATLC.
SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS BCMG A MODERATE TO FRESH NRLY BREEZE ON SUN...
THEN NE MON/TUE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 6-7FT
OFFSHORE ON SUN. NE FLOW MON/TUE WILL PUSH A SWELL COMPONENT IN THE
E FL COAST...ALLOWING SEAS TO REBUILD TO 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT
OFFSHORE. ROUGH CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE GULFSTREAM DUE TO THE
OPPOSING OPPOSING NRLY SFC WINDS AND SRLY OCEAN CURRENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SAT...STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SAT AFTN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH NW SFC WINDS 15-20MPH...TRANSPORT WINDS 25-30MPH. MIN RH
VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL BLO 40PCT AREAWIDE...AOB 25PCT FOR 4-6HRS
NORTH OF LAKE KISSIMMEE-LAKE HARNEY-LAKE GEORGE. RED FLAG WARNINGS
ANTICIPATED...THOUGH OVERALL IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR WILL BE STUNTED
BY ERC VALUES THAT WILL BE LARGELY IN THE M/U20S.

SUN...
DRY AIR WILL LINGER ACRS THE INTERIOR AS SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS
DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE N/NE. MIN RH VALUES AOB 35PCT FOR 4-6HRS
NORTH OF LAKE KISSIMMEE-LAKE HARNEY-LAKE GEORGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 2

DAB 43 SET IN 1993
MCO 46 SET IN 1993
MLB 45 SET IN 1993
VRB 47 SET IN 1993

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  55  63  45 /  10   0  10   0
MCO  79  56  66  42 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  80  58  65  46 /  20   0  10   0
VRB  82  61  67  48 /  20   0  10   0
LEE  77  57  65  41 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  78  57  66  42 /  10   0  10   0
ORL  79  57  66  42 /  10   0  10   0
FPR  82  58  67  47 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW





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