Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281933
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
333 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight-Thu...Trough aloft sagging into the southeast states will
push a frontal boundary into north Florida. This will increase the
local low level southwest flow slightly. Expect a lingering
chance of showers/storms this evening, but then the GFS shows
considerable convection in the eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight.
Increased steering flow may push some diminishing convection to
the interior late in the night.

Deep southwest flow on Thu, with plenty of moisture and 500 mb
temps staying cooler than normal, point towards showers/storms
marching west to east across the peninsula again. There could be
considerable debris cloudiness from the convection off to our
west in the morning, but enough heating should occur for scattered
afternoon showers/storms. Won`t deviate from our current 50 percent
chance, which is close to the latest MOS values.

FRI-TUE...The frontal boundary is forecast to stall over the
northern peninsula Fri/Sat, then retreat northward as upper low
slowly lifts up to the Great Lakes and Atlantic ridge nudges back
towards the area. 12Z GFS continues to show little, if any, drying
over central Florida on Fri so 30-50 PoPs with afternoon storms
still looks good. Offshore (SW) flow will continue but not quite
as strong so the east coast sea breeze should be able to develop
and push across the coastal counties at least.

Onshore (east) flow is forecast to develop this weekend and with
no significant drying, scattered showers and storms are forecast
each day. The east flow should focus afternoon storms over the
interior and west side of the peninsula. Highs are expected to
continue to reach the upper 80s over much of the area each day with
lows generally in the lower 70s, except moderating to the middle 70s
along the coast early next week due to developing onshore flow.

Tropics...Matthew in the eastern Caribbean is forecast to move
westward through late week and make a northward turn late in the
weekend. The message for now is that we remain in the heart of the
hurricane season and it is too early to say if this system will have
an impact on east central Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers/storms marching across the peninsula should
push offshore early this evening. Will have to watch for another
round of activity pushing in from the west that lingers into the
late evening.

The deep west flow pattern will continue Thu, but expect ongoing
convection in the Gulf of Mexico in the morning might bring
considerable debris cloudiness, so timing/intensity of storms
looks a bit problematical.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Thu...Frontal boundary dropping into north Florida will
result in southwest low level winds increasing slightly across the
local waters. Speeds should reach 10-15 knots offshore late
tonight and Thu. Seas 2-3 feet except up to 4 feet well offshore.

The main concern for boaters will be with scattered offshore moving
storms through early this evening, then again Thu afternoon/evening.
Some will produce wind gusts around 35 knots and frequent lightning
strikes.

FRI-TUE...Frontal boundary is forecast to stall out over the
northern peninsula Fri/Sat then wash out/lift back north by
Sunday. Southwest winds will weaken Fri then become easterly over
the weekend. These east winds should increase early next week as the
pressure gradient tightens with Matthew forecast to approach the
southern Bahamas. Seas look to be 2-3 feet Fri, then an
increasing east fetch should build seas to 3-4 feet over the
weekend. Long period ocean swells and gradually increasing winds
will keep a moderate risk of rip currents through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  88  72  87 /  30  50  20  30
MCO  73  88  73  89 /  20  50  20  40
MLB  73  88  73  88 /  30  50  30  50
VRB  72  88  73  87 /  30  50  30  50
LEE  74  87  73  88 /  20  50  20  30
SFB  73  88  73  89 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  74  88  73  89 /  20  50  20  40
FPR  72  88  72  87 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...Lascody
IMPACT WX/AVIATION...Ulrich



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