Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 090147
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
847 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...WINDY/COLDER WITH VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE...

LITTLE/NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TONIGHT...THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WAS CUTTING ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TO THE BIG BEND AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AT 01Z. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THE FRONT OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WAS GENERATING SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.  THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.  QUICK MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH BUT MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY ONLY GET A TRACE OF RAIN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION SETS IN.  IT WILL BE USUALLY BREEZY/GUSTY FOR AN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD AS 925 MB WINDS ARE SHOWN INCREASING
TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE WARMER
GULF WATERS WILL GENERATE CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS SO EVEN AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE TEMPERATURE FALL AND LOWS SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S PAST SUNRISE TUESDAY.

TUESDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) A WINDY DAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW PRODUCING 20-25 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU
STREAMING EAST OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SO SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S
ORLANDO NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH KLEE-KDAB 03-04Z AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF KSUA
BY 07-08Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPED AFTER SUNSET.  POST
FRONTAL WINDS WILL LEAD TO A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT WILL
BECOME GUSTY WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
AT TIMES. SOME SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEEDS IS EXPECTED A LITTLE
BEFORE/AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL...THEN DEEPER MIXING
WILL KICK IN BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO
WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/TUE...JUST PLAIN BAD BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT 20-60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WHILE STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST 0-20 NAUTICAL MILES.  THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL BE VERY ROUGH. IF VENTURING INTO THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT...MAKE SURE YOU HAVE AN EMERGENCY POSITION-INDICATING
RADIO BEACON (EPIRB).

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WIMMER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.