Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 261315
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
THE SMALLER DAY TO DAY DETAILS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THE TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS N FLORIDA. HOWEVER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...BOTH IN THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS.

THE PENINSULA REMAINS UNDERNEATH AN ENHANCED RIBBON OF MOISTURE WITH
DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE RIDGE AXIS
AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE STATE...MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL DRYING LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO COME TOO LATE TO HAVE A SUBSTANTIVE
IMPACT ON STORM COVERAGE.

LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY NOT
MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER INLAND THAN I-95 AND BE DELAYED NORTH OF THE
CAPE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND THREAT
FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLISION WHICH
WILL OCCUR FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST. HOWEVER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES AND OTHER
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH BRINGING ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION BACK TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MAIN STORM THREATS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE
LOW 90S MOST LOCATIONS WITH INTERIOR URBAN AREAS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLD TSRA ALREADY
PRESENT ALONG DEVELOPING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND WITH
TEMPO TSRA VCNTY KLEE BY 16Z. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
AROUND 16Z WITH TEMPO TSRA AFFECTING ALL COASTAL TAF SITES. SCT-NMRS
COVERAGE THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISION JUST EAST OF
ORLANDO TAF SITES AND INLAND FROM COAST...ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST
AND OFFSHORE THROUGH 27/02Z BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND TO COASTAL TAF
SITES. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY ACTIVITY...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
DOMINANT W/SW FLOW 5-10KTS.  FLOW MORE S-SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS. WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY AND POSSIBLY UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

MAIN THREAT REMAINS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
COULD AFFECT INTRACOASTAL AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH STRONGER STORMS
PUSHING OFF THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....ULRICH








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