Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 270914
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
410 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

...POOR/HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE...

CURRENT...MDTLY TIGHT PGRAD BETWEEN COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
WRN GOMEX AND THE NERN CONUS BLIZZARD PRODUCING CLEAR AND CHILLY WX
ACROSS ECFL EARLY THIS MORNING. STEADY WNW-NW WINDS NEAR 10 MPH AND
TEMPS IN THE 45-50F RANGE ARE YIELDING WCI`S GENERALLY IN THE L-M40S.

TODAY/TONIGHT...CYCLONIC H50 FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT H24 AS A
VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE LARGE ERN CONUS TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW.
THIS CAUSES BOTH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS TO VEER...
THE LATTER FROM WNW TO NNW-N TONIGHT. BOTH GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BLYR COUPLING DELAYED BY A COUPLE HRS BY COOL MORNING SFC TEMPS.
MAV MOS SHOW BLYR WINDS APPROACHING 20KT WITH 925 WINDS OF 25-30KT
WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR LAKE WIND ADV CRITERIA TO BE MET
OVER ALL BUT THE SRN 3 COUNTIES...WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH GUSTING
TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30 MPH. STARTED THE ADV AT NOON/17Z A FEW HRS
LATER THAN USUAL OWING TO THE MODEL-ADVERTISED LATER ONSET OF
STRONGER WINDS. MAXES RANGE FROM L60S NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA TO U60S
LAKE OKEECHOBEE/MARTIN COS.

CLEAR/COLD ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. MINS IN THE L-M40S COUPLED WITH NW-NNW
WINDS NEAR 10 MPH YIELDS MINIMUM WCI IN THE U30S-L40S OVER MOST OF
THE CWA BY SUNRISE.

WED...UPPER FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC AS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. RENEWED BOUT OF COLD/DRY ADVECTION AS WINDS BECOME
NW FOLLOWING REINFORCING FROPA. MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
THOSE OF TUE MOST AREAS...MAINLY LOW-MID 60S...SOME 8-10 DEG BELOW
CLIMO. COOL AGAIN WED NIGHT...WITH MAINLY UPPER 30S INLAND OUTSIDE
OF METRO AREAS...BUT WITH WARMING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO MID
40S VOLUSIA/BREVARD AND LOW/MID 50S FARTHER SOUTH AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS BECOME SLIGHTLY ONSHORE.

THU-FRI...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MAINLY ZONAL TO WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE DEVELOPING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TX.
CONTINUED DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS...TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THU. WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS DOWN THE PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF
MARINE SHOWERS EXPECTED...BUT WILL KEEP LAND AREAS DRY FOR NOW AS NE
WIND SURGE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY.

SAT-MON...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
DESERT SW CUT-OFF. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES INCREASING
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAKENING/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. LONG FETCH OF
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS/BRIDGES BOUNDARY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL CWA
SUNDAY/MONDAY. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO SAT...THEN MODERATING TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY/MONDAY...REACHING MID/UPPER 70S FOR MAXS
AND MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC. BUMPED UP WINDS AFTER 16Z...FROM 290-300 AT
14-17KT SUSTAINED GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...A FRESH TO STRONG OFFSHORE BREEZE WILL
CONTINUES THE NEXT H24. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20NM AOB 6FT AND
UP TO 7-8FT WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO NW LATE TONIGHT...BUT ALSO
START TO DECREASE BY AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHER SEAS
WELL OFFSHORE. WILL RUN WITH STRONGLY WORDED SCEC FOR THE 0-20NM
LEGS...SCA CONTINUES BEYOND 20NM THROUGH WED MORNING.

WED...N/NW WINDS 15-20 KT DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED 3-5 FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE.

THU-FRI...FLOW BECOMES LIGHT EASTERLY THU AS WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER CENTRAL PENINSULA...BECOMING W/NW 10 KT FRI. SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING 2-4 FT AREAWIDE BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

SAT...WINDS VEER TO N/NE FRI NIGHT/SAT AND INCREASE 10-15 KT AS WIND
SURGE BEGINS TO BUILD. SEAS BEGIN TO QUICKLY REBUILD AS FETCH OF
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  41  60  41 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  65  44  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  64  43  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  65  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  64  42  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  64  43  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  64  44  63  44 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  65  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....SPRATT




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