Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 281923
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION WORKING ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WHERE AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME MORE INTENSE CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREATS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GENERALLY PEAK OUT
BEFORE SUNSET...LEAVING ONLY ANVIL/DEBRIS RAIN THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...SURFACE FLOW VEERS A BIT FURTHER ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR A QUICK INLAND PENETRATION OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SO DEBRIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.

SUNDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...GFS HAS TAKEN A MORE DAMPENED VIEW OF ERIKA AND PULLS THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE KEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS HAPPY TO
AGREE. CONSIDERING RUN TO RUN VARIABILITIES...THE FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR ERIKA RELATIVE TO THE PENINSULA.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE LOCAL FORECAST WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST. A WEAKER ERIKA WOULD DIRECT
THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE KEYS...WHILE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ERIKA WOULD
BRING IT A BIT MORE NORTH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS
ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...BUT IT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO RECOVER. THE EARLIEST IN WHICH LOCAL
IMPACTS MIGHT BE FELT FROM ERIKA IS SUN AFTERNOON FOR THE TREASURE
COAST AND COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABOVE NORMAL POPS
MOST PLACES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

MON-THU...FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF
ERIKA. A MORE WESTERN TRACK MAY MAKE FOR A GREATER RAINFALL
CONCERN WITH DEEPER S-N INLAND PENETRATION...WITH A SOLUTION MORE
EAST A GREATER CONCERN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT WATERS
SINCE THIS WOULD SIGNAL A STRONGER ERIKA. CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FAVORING A TREND TO THE WEST AND ON THE DAMPENED SIDE
(AT THIS TIME).


&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FOCUS ON INLAND TERMINAL SITES. COASTAL SITES WILL SEE LESS
COVERAGE AND HIGHER CEILINGS...THOUGH SOME DEBRIS RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE CARRIED OVERHEAD THESE SITES THROUGH SUNSET. GENERALLY VFR
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SE/E.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...E/SE FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
FRESHENING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS ERIKA PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. SEAS REMAIN 2 - 3 FEET BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 4 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL.

SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. INCREASING
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ADVERTISED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  77  88 /  20  50  30  70
MCO  74  92  76  90 /  20  50  20  70
MLB  76  90  79  88 /  20  40  30  70
VRB  75  89  77  88 /  20  40  30  70
LEE  75  92  76  92 /  20  50  20  70
SFB  74  92  76  91 /  20  50  20  70
ORL  75  92  77  90 /  20  50  20  70
FPR  75  89  78  89 /  20  40  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY
AVIATION...SEDLOCK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.