Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 290001
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND...

...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
SOME AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS...

UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE THE BEACH HAZARDS HEADLINE FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT WORDING CURRENT.

LAST COUPLE OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COMING ASHORE AS MORE STRATOCUMULUS
EXTENDING WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WAS MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA IN THE
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW.

CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT RAINSHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MAKING IT INLAND PAST INTERSTATE 95 FROM AROUND PONCE
INLET TO JUPITER INLET. THIS IS WHAT THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS.

.AVIATION...
VFR. SCT035-050...BRIEF BKN35-050...AT THE COAST AND CLR-FEW030-040 INLAND.

.MARINE... BUOYS RECORDING EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AWAY
FROM THE COASTLINE AND AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE BEACHSIDE CMAN SITES.
BUOYS WERE RECORDING PRIMARILY 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND TO 6
FEET AT BUOY 010 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH. THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
EASTERLY WIND FORECAST ON TRACK. WAVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEAS TO 5
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM AS EASTERLY SWELLS PROPAGATE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN BUOY
010`S CURRENT MARINE OB OF 6 FOOT 8 SECOND SEAS WITH A 5 FOOT 8
SECOND EASTERLY SWELL COMPONENT.

PREVIOUS AFD

THROUGH TONIGHT...DIURNAL CU/SC FIELD WILL DISSIPATE POST SUNSET
LEAVING CLEAR TO MCLEAR SKIES WITH SAVE FOR A FEW SCRAPS OF MARINE
SC PUSHING ONSHORE THE EAST COAST. LATER TONIGHT...THE LEADING EDGE
OF HIGHER MEAN MOISTURE (SEEN IN WATERVAPOR/TPW IMAGERY AS WELL AS
RAP ANALYSIS OF HIGHER SFC TD`S) CURRENTLY NEAR 75W WILL REACH THE
COAST...MOST LIKELY AROUND 08Z/09Z. EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN
COVRG AND INTENSITY OF MARINE SHRA ACCOMPANY THIS AREA...WITH SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. MINS IN THE U60S INLAND AND L70S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...PLUME OF HIGHER PWAT AIR (UP TO 1.5" SPREADS INLAND DURING
THE DAY...LEADING TO A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE/COVERAGE OF FAST MOVING
DIURNAL SHRA ALONG A QUICKLY INLAND-MOVING AND DIFFUSE ECSB. SMALL
CHC FOR TS...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. RAIN CHCS DECREASE LOCALLY
BEFORE SUNSET AS THE SEA BREEZE BDRY REACHES WRN FL AND NARROW PLUME
OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY OVER LAND TOWARD SUNSET.

MAX TEMPS IN THE M80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...U80S WEST OF I-95
AND AROUND 90F OVER THE WRN INTERIOR (MAINLY LAKE CO).

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A LOW END SHOWER CHANCE (30 PERCENT)
ALONG THE COAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER INLAND FOR THIS
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION. MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE U60S TO
L70S.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION SLIGHTLY MODIFIED...

SATURDAY...ANOTHER PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO AROUND 40 PCT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY PUSHING ONSHORE THROUGH MID DAY...BEFORE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY WITH MID
LVL WINDS STARTING TO TURN TO THE SW BY LATE SUNDAY. LOW LVL ESE
FLOW WILL AND PWATS TO 1.7-1.8 ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. POPS AGAIN WILL BE 30-40 CSTL AND 40 PCT
FOR THE INTERIOR. HIGHS FOR BOTH WEEKEND DAYS SHOULD REACH THE MID
80S COAST AND AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR.

MON...ESE LOW LVL FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE SFC-850 LAYER WITH SOME
DRYING ABOVE 700 MBS BUT STILL ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE TO DRIVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. WILL TAPER POPS
TO 20 PCT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 30-40 PCT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

TUE-THU...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS DEVELOPING INTO MID WEEK AS A MID
LVL TROUGH DROPS SLOWLY SE TWD THE NRN GULF COAST. FLOW AROUND THE
TROUGH WILL DRAW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE NWD INTO MID WEEK TOWARD E
CENTRAL FL. 00Z GFS IS CONTINUING ITS PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS AND
SPINS UP A SFC LOW NEAR THE FL PENINSULA FOR MID WEEK AND LIFTS IT
NWD. GFS MODEL TRENDS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN TO GRADUALLY
MOVE THE LOW TRACK WESTWARD AND KEEP E CENTRAL FL ON THE WET SIDE OF
THE LOW AS DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS OVER THE AREA WED-THU. THE ECMWF IS
NOT SHOWING MUCH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT BUT DOES ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS INTO MID WEEK. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
TOWARD MID WEEK UP TO AROUND 50 PCT...THOUGH THIS MAY CONSERVATIVE
IF ANYTHING NEAR THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BCMG SKC INLAND AND FEW-SCT035 NEAR THE COASTAL
FLIGHT CORRIDOR. SMALL CHC FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SHRA AFTER 09Z
WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA SPREADING INLAND 12Z-18Z AND AREAS TO PREVAILING
DIURNAL CU/SC CIGS BKN040-050.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS SHOULD REACH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE AND 4-5 FT FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASE TO 4-5 FT SAT-
SUN. MON/TUE...ESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FT
NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  83  72  86 /  10  30  30  40
MCO  68  88  71  89 /  10  30  20  40
MLB  73  85  73  86 /  20  30  30  30
VRB  72  86  72  87 /  20  30  30  40
LEE  68  89  72  90 /   0  30  10  40
SFB  67  87  71  89 /  10  30  20  40
ORL  68  88  72  88 /  10  30  20  40
FPR  71  85  71  87 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...KELLY
FORECASTS...WIMMER



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