Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 291906
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
306 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE
COAST PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY
PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL LINGER
BEHIND THIS BAND OF CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUNSET. AS THIS PRECIPITATION PUSHES
OFFSHORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO PUSH A FEW SHOWERS INTO AREAS WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
LATE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT STILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUE-WED...MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE AND ROBUST WIND PROFILE ALOFT MAY
AGAIN BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
DELAYED. ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFT WITH
THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE. DURING WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. AN EARLIER THAN
NORMAL ONSET TO PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE GULF CST APPEARS REASONABLE
FROM AROUND OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

EXTENDED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU. THE
FEATURE THEN DRIFTS FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A
LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO THE REQUIREMENTS FOR SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND
PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS GENERALLY FOR BEST
COVERAGE. MARINE BASED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH LATE AFT. AREAS
OF RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND SUNSET...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY AND TOWARD I-4 LATE TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED PAST LATE EVENING.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH TOMORROW BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
INTO THE AFT HOURS. HOWEVER MAY SEE AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION
AGAIN ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INTO THE MORNING. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...GUSTY OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE TREASURE
COAST BY LATE AFT. W/SW WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 2-3 FT.

TUE-THU...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT WITH A
LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND
WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  92  73  92 /  20  50  20  40
MCO  74  93  73  94 /  20  50  20  40
MLB  73  91  74  92 /  20  50  20  40
VRB  73  91  72  93 /  30  50  30  30
LEE  74  92  76  93 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  73  93  75  94 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  74  93  75  93 /  20  50  20  40
FPR  72  92  71  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH
AVIATION...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....VOLKMER



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