Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 251947
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Dry weather expected for the Memorial Day weekend with a
moderate threat for Rip Currents expected...

Current-Tonight...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the far southern Treasure Coast continue to push
northeastward off of the coast this afternoon. This trend of
precipitation sagging southward will continue as a weak cool frontal
boundary presses southward down the peninsula this afternoon. The
front and associated precipitation is being aided by a large upper
trough across the Deep South. This feature will continue to swing
northeastward and away from the region this evening. Precipitation
chances will also come to an end southward by this evening.
Northward, drier/cooler air will filter down the peninsula behind
the weak surface boundary with thinning clouds. Water vapor imagery
shows very dry air filtering down the state this afternoon behind
the front. Skies will become MClear this evening/overnight with
gusty W/NW winds decreasing to light areawide.

Lows cooler than recent and generally in the L60s, except M-U60s
along the immediate Treasure Coast, and cannot rule out some U50s
across normally cooler rural locations of the interior.

Friday...Surface high pressure settles across the area with much
drier air and MSunny skies. Warm and dry conditions to continue.
Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80s near the east coast and
around 90 across the interior. Light morning winds will become
onshore along the east coast and light westerly across the interior
with a weaker overall pressure gradient in place.

...Previous discussion for days 2-7 follows...

Saturday-Sunday...Surface high pressure ridge axis will extend
across central Florida on Sat and slip slightly south on Sunday. The
mid level ridge will build from the Gulf of Mexico Saturday and then
over the state on Sunday. A dry airmass in the low to mid levels and
subsidence from the ridge aloft will allow for a mostly clear and
hot weekend with high temperatures into the mid 90s across the
interior and lower 90s along the coast. Lows will range from the mid
to upper 60s across cooler interior locations to the lower 70s near
the east coast.

While excellent beach weather is being forecast, high astronomical
tide departures will lead to greater wave runup, and a moderate
threat for Rip Currents in the surf zone through the upcoming
holiday weekend. Beachgoers are advised to check with their local
beach patrol regarding ocean hazards before entering the water.

Monday...The mid level ridge will shift gradually east of the state
with the surface ridge axis across the southern forecast area.
Though the GFS indicates some slight moistening in the low levels
models precip forecasts remain dry including the ECMWF. Will
continue the dry forecast for another day with highs in the mid 90s
inland and lower 90s near the east coast.

Tuesday-Thursday...The mid level ridge will stretch from S FL NE
across the Atlantic with slightly stronger southeast low level flow
around the Atlantic ridge. Models indicate gradually deepening
moisture into the mid levels which should start to support diurnally
driven convection each afternoon and early evening along the east
and west coast sea breezes as they move inland each day toward the
interior. Rain chances in the 20-30 percent range Tue should
increase gradually to 30-40 percent for Wed/Thu. High temperatures
are expected in the upper 80s/around 90 coast and mid 90s for the
interior Tuesday and then lowering a few degrees into mid week with
expected scattered afternoon convection and higher diurnal cloud
cover keeping highs in the upper 80s coast to lower 90s inland. Lows
generally in the lower to mid 70s for mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...The weak surface trough continues to slowly sag
southward across the central peninsula this afternoon. Shower and
storm activity will continue to diminish southward down the
peninsula as drier/cooler air filter in behind the weak boundary.
Until convection clears/dissipates later today expect IFR/MVFR
cigs/vsbys in association, especially from KFPR southward. Gusty
W/NW winds will become light tonight. Light morning winds on Fri
will become onshore near the coast and westerly over the interior
remaining fairly light with a weaker pressure gradient in place.
Conditions on Fri remain dry with MSunny skies with high pressure in
place overhead.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight...Will go ahead and expire the SCA with
afternoon package issuance as it appears both winds and seas have
fallen below advisory criteria and perhaps cautionary criteria too.
West winds will veer WNW/NW tonight. Wind speeds generally AOB 15
kts. Seas will fall to 2-3 ft near shore and offshore legs 3-4 ft.
Offshore moving shower and storm activity will end south of Fort
Pierce Inlet by early this evening. Choppy dominant wave periods
between 4-6 seconds will improve to 6-8 seconds overnight.

Friday...High pressure settles across the area with a weaker
pressure gradient in place. Winds generally AOB 10 kts areawide.
NW directional component in the morning will become onshore in the
afternoon. Seas around 2 ft near shore and 2-3 ft offshore.

Saturday-Tuesday...Winds will be influenced by the nearby Atlantic
ridge this weekend with winds generally 10 knots or less except
becoming SE up to 10-15 knots with the east coast sea breeze each
afternoon into the early evening. Seas 1-2 ft near shore and up to 2-
3 ft offshore. Dry weather should allow for good boating conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...On Friday, high pressure and a weaker pressure
gradient will settle across ECFL. Much drier air will filter down
the peninsula with min RHs falling to 25-34pct for 3-4 hours over
the interior during the afternoon. Winds will generally be lighter
with light westerly flow over the interior and winds becoming
onshore near the coast by afternoon with east coast sea breeze
development and slow penetration inland. Headlines not anticipated.

Memorial Day Weekend...Winds will remain light, with an afternoon
sea breeze each day. RH values west of I-95 will drop below 40
percent Saturday, reaching around 30 percent well inland. Some
shallow modification will keep min values between 35 and 40 percent
in this same area on Sunday, with no low RH concerns by Monday.;

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  62  89  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  63  86  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  64  85  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  64  89  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  62  89  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  65  89  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  63  86  69  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Sedlock
DSS/LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Cristaldi


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