Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 301925
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
325 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...

Tropical Depression Bonnie continues disrupt the lcl pgrad, leaving
much of the central/south peninsula under the influence of an H100-
H70 col. latest data from the KMLB/KTBW/KMFL 88D profilers show mean
winds up to 10kft are blo 10kts. Not surprisingly, inland progression
of the east/west coast sea breezes is at a snail`s pace, as is
ongoing storm motion.

With such a sluggish WX pattern in place, fcst philosophy has
changed little from this mrng. Sufficient moisture in place for
convective dvlpmnt thru late aftn/early evng, RAP40 analysis
continues to measure PWATs btwn 1.50"-1.75" acrs the peninsula with
H100-H70 mean RH values btwn 70-80pct. Furthermore, H100-H70 mean
dew point depressions have decreased to 3C-5C along and S of the FL
Turnpike, suggesting a little higher coverage S of the Orlando
Metroplex this evng. Plenty of instability in place as well with H85-
H70 lapse rates btwn 6.0-6.5C/KM, cool aloft with H50 temps arnd
-9C.

Shra/tsra dvlpmnt will work its way inland along the sea breeze thru
the aftn, culminating in late aftn/early evng tsras as outflow
boundaries from existing convection pushes the east/west coast sea
breezes inland. Negligible H85-H50 steering flow will result in slow
storm motion and very heavy lcl rain, while the cool air aloft will
keep a small potential for strong downbursts. Convection and cloud
debris will dissipate/thin through late evening/overnight. Sfc
dewpoints in the U60s/L70s should keep min in temps on the same
order.

Tue-Thu...(Modified prev disc)
Residual mid-upper troughing across the southeast U.S., Florida,
Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic will gradually lift out, replaced
by weak and flat ridging aloft through midweek. Position of the
ridge axis will drift from the S half of the peninsula into the N
half, while at the surface, the low level ridge axis near Lake
Okeechobee Tuesday morning will slowly lift northward into the
southern (Wed) and then central (Thu) CWA. While mean moisture
remains sufficient for diurnal convection, the northward shift in
the ridging pattern should gradually shift higher rain chances
inland and toward the western peninsula. With weak steering currents
in place, convection should linger into the early evening each day
before ending. Temperatures look to average near to a degree or two
above climo through the period.

Fri-Mon...(Prev Disc)
Local pattern remains undergoes some slight changes from late week
through the weekend into Monday. The mid level low over Texas drifts
very slowly eastward, opening up into a trough over the NW GOMEX.
The mid level ridge across Florida will weaken as northern stream
short wave energy carved out a large broad trough from the Great
Lakes across the NE quadrant of the CONUS. This slight pattern
change will dislodge the low level ridge over Florida, and nudge it
eastward into the Atlantic. The prevailing low level flow over FL
will veer to S-SW, strengthening a bit in the process. This in turn
will advect higher mean PWAT across FL, increasing peninsular rain
chances and shifting the higher POPs back toward the central-eastern
side of the state. We should see rain chances head back above the
early June climo normal of 30-40 percent, and toward 50, and perhaps
60 percent by Sunday-Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 31/18Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 31/00Z...coastal sites E/SE 6-9KTS...Btwn 30/19-22Z
interior sites bcmg E/SE 5-8KTS. Btwn 31/00Z-31/03Z bcmg S/SW AOB
3KTS. Btwn 31/12Z-31/15Z...bcmg SW 4-7KTS. Btwn 31/15Z-31/17Z...
coastal sites bcmg E 7-10KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 30/21Z...CIGS btwn FL040-060...sct IFR tsras
slgt chc LIFR tsras with sfc G35KTS. Btwn 30/21Z-20/24Z...CIGS btwn
FL040-060...NW KMLB-KOBE sct IFR tsras slgt chc LIFR tsras with sfc
G35KTS. Btwn 30/00Z-30/04Z...CIGS btwn FL080-100...N of KMLB-KISM
sct IFR tsras slgt chc LIFR stars with sfc G35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Very weak pgrad acrs the lcl waters as broad cyclonic
circulation around the center of TD Bonnie keeps the Atlc ridge axis
disorganized. Light to S/SE breeze bcmg S/SW aft midnight as the
diurnal seabreeze circulation transitions to a land breeze. Seas
generally 2-3FT...up to 4FT in the Gulf Stream.

Tue-Wed...Weak pgrad will continue...though the Altc hi pres ridge
will slowly rebuild over the region as TD Bonnie (or her remnant
circulation) drifts up the Carolina coast. Light to gentle srly
breeze will prevail...meandering back and forth btwn S/SW in the
predawn/mrng hrs to the E/SE in the aftn/evng hrs with the diurnal
seabreeze/land breeze circulation.

Thu-Sat...Little change to the overall WX pattern as the Atlc ridge
axis remains draped over the FL peninsula. Prevailing wind direction
will be out of the S...shifting more to the E/SE near the coast each
aftn with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Seas will hold
a steady 2-3FT...up to 4FT in the Gulf Stream. offshore moving
tsras should hold off until late in the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  90  70  89 /  30  20  10  20
MCO  70  93  72  94 /  40  30  20  20
MLB  71  88  71  88 /  20  30  10  20
VRB  68  88  70  88 /  20  30  10  20
LEE  71  91  73  93 /  40  30  20  20
SFB  71  93  72  93 /  40  30  20  20
ORL  71  93  72  93 /  40  30  20  20
FPR  69  88  70  88 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine.........Bragaw
Aviation/Impact WX....Kelly


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