Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 221045
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
545 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.Updated for 12z aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Little concern in the short term. Cooler and drier air moving in
for the period.

Satellite imagery showing cloud cover with last vestiges of the
upper trough exiting the far eastern area this morning. We expect
this trend to continue with perhaps a few cumulus redeveloping to the
far east into the early afternoon. Lower level CAA...a bit stronger
to the east...and some pressure gradient should help increase winds
in the 10 to 15kt with gusts to 22kts through much of the
afternoon...especially to the east.

Winds should die off quickly this evening with cool high pressure
continuing to build east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

The long term period brings continued cool weather as a mid/upper
trough dominates the eastern half of the CONUS. Other than a small
chance for fleeting light showers on Wednesday, we will be dry
until the weekend with surface high pressure in place.

Highs will be 5-10 degrees below normal on Wednesday and Thursday
with readings ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Lows will even
dip into the mid 40s across the northeast part of the forecast
area (Lake Mille Lacs to west central WI). Weak shortwave energy
in the base of the aforementioned eastern trough could be healthy
enough to generate some light showers on Wednesday and Wednesday
evening, and then more formidable activity arrives on Friday night
as a surface trough/front arrive in conjunction with a shortwave
trough from the west. The setup doesn`t look particularly
threatening as far as severe weather is concerned (given only
moderate instability), but heavy rains could be a factor given
PWATS circa 1.5 inches under prolonged forcing over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Expect vfr through the period. Some cumulus possible over the far
east lifitng from 2k feet this morning to 4-5K feet this
afternoon. Should dissipate by evening. Gusty NW winds to 20-25kts
by late morning most areas becoming light nw-w after 01z.

KMSP...No change from the main discussion.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED night...VFR. chc -shra. Wind N 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE


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