Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 220713
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
313 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE...AND HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MIDLEVEL WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SHOULD
BE GONE BY SUNRISE AS DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHING THE
TROUGH. FULL SUN WILL BE OFFSET BY SOME 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN
THE VALLEY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK
AND VORT MAX MAY CROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT
MOST SPOTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH CALM WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE LONG TERM PART
OF THE FORECAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE AS A SLOW
MOVING TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY DAY OF NEXT WEEK. A CONSTANT
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE WILL BE PUMPED UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO HELP
FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA COULD RECEIVE SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN, BUT
NAILING DOWN THE SPECIFICS AS FAR AS LOCATION AND TIMING IS A BIT
DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  51  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  50  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  49  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              72  46  79  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



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