Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 291838
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
238 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS
CAPPING INVERSION ERODED OVER ALL BUT SE TN AND MIDDLE TN. CUMULUS
FIELD GROWING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHILE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN EXTREMELY SPARSE...JUST OVER SE KY/SW VA/NE TN AREAS SO FAR.
KEEPING THOSE LOW POPS FOR MAINLY SW VA AND NE TN INTO THE EVENING.
ALLOWED FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE WHERE IT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 2 MORNINGS.

MOISTURE INCREASING FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT LIFT WILL BE
GRADUAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID-UPR MS VALLEY REGION
LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. HIGH POPS
NEEDED ESPECIALLY FOR WRN AREAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AREA-WIDE
BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...I CHOSE THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING FROM THE
GFS...ECMWF AND SREF...OVER THE FASTER NAM MODEL FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...MOS GUIDANCE GENERALLY CLOSE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND I FAVORED UNDERCUTTING THE GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGH POPS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY SO HELD ONTO RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE TAPERING BACK TO LOWER CHANCE
PROBABILITY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NO INDICATION OF
ORGANIZED LIFT OTHER THAN AFTERNOON HEATING WITH SOME TERRAIN
INFLUENCE. IN FACT MODELS TREND TOWARD THE CONCEPT OF A BUILDING
RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WHICH WOULD SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO SOME DEGREE. STAYED A DEGREE OR TWO
UNDER MAX TEMP GUIDANCE WHILE STAYING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED
MINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  89  72  87 /  10  40  60  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  88  71  85 /  10  30  50  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  87  71  83 /  10  30  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  88  66  84 /  30  10  40  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG



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