Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 240934
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
534 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT KSWF AND KGON. SHOWERS
DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. CIGS COULD DROP TO
MVFR AT A FEW PLACES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THEM DOWN
ATTM. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z...ALTHOUGH
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000
FT AROUND TODAY.

GUSTS HAVE BECOME OCNL AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...14Z-15Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT ON LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR.
THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS. SCA CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








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