Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 200434
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1234 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical cyclone Jose slowly moves south and east of the area
today through Wednesday night remaining in the well offshore
Western Atlantic. Weak high pressure builds over the area
Thursday through early next week as Jose weakens and slowly
meanders to our southeast. Please refer to National Hurricane
Center products for more details on Jose.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Bands of showers on the outer periphery of Jose continue to
rotate into eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut.
Further north and west, showers have been more widely scattered.
Have trended PoPs downward across the interior, NYC, and western
Long Island and southwest Connecticut. Showers will remain light
overall with just some embedded moderate downpours. Heading
towards day break, showers should be confided to the east end of
Long Island.

Jose otherwise remains over the Atlantic. Winds across the
local area have picked up a bit as the low center has drawn
closer, but are still below tropical storm force at the buoys.
An earlier spotter report at Orient indicated 31 mph sustained.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Jose is forecast to slowly move northeast and continue to
weaken into Wednesday. It is forecast to move slowly more
eastward direction, relatively farther offshore. Meanwhile, weak
high pressure remains in Southeast Canada, building west of the
region through this time period. This will keep a relatively
tight pressure gradient across Eastern Long Island and Southeast
Connecticut with northerly flow. The potential still will exist
for tropical storm force winds across Suffolk County,
particularly the twin forks Wednesday but most winds are
expected to be in the 20 to 30 mph sustained range with gusts in
the 35 to 40 mph range. Some higher gusts will be possible at
times. Winds are less to the north and west of Suffolk County.

A gradual loosening of the pressure gradient is shown across
the local region Wednesday night as Jose is forecast to move
farther away and high pressure starts to build closer into the
region. Winds are forecast to lower late Wednesday night as a
result.

Mainly dry conditions expected Wednesday and Wednesday night as
outer bands of Jose likely stay offshore. .

Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal at night,
tonight and Wednesday night, with values in the mid to upper 60s.
Highs Wednesday are expected to be warmer in the west and cooler
to the east, a range from the lower 80s to lower 70s.

With still long period swells allowing surf to build, high surf
and a high risk of rip currents will continue Wednesday for
Atlantic beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is a lot of uncertainty in the long term forecast due to the
uncertainty surrounding Jose`s ultimate track and strength. Stay
tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding Jose from
the National Hurricane Center.

For now it appears that Jose and/or remnants will meander about 250-
300 miles to the southeast of Montauk Thursday through this weekend.
This would likely keep the associated rain shield just off to the
east. This combined with high pressure over the area will then
likely keep us dry through the period with above-normal temperatures
as heights build aloft. It still may be on the breezy side,
particularly on Thursday and Friday. For Monday and Tuesday, will
keep both periods dry for consistency while global models attempt to
sort out the details of Jose from run to run.

Rough surf will continue to be likely at least through the end of
this week and may continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tropical cyclone Jose will track to the NE tonight and remain off
southern New England coast on Wednesday.

Bands of showers continue to pivot into the area from the east.
Guidance is indicating this activity persists through around
05z or so before ending. Intensity is mainly light although
there could be an isold moderate to heavy showers with vsby
briefly dropping to MVFR or even IFR. Otherwise...MVFR to
locally IFR cigs are expected to return across the area through
06z from east to west.

A gusty NNE flow will continue into tonight, gradually shifting
to the NNW by Wednesday morning. Gusts in the 20-30 kt range
are expected through the night at the city terminals, with gusts
of 25-30 kt at eastern terminals. Winds gradually decrease and
cigs improve back to VFR during the day Wednesday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night...VFR.
.Thursday-Friday...VFR. Gusty N winds around 20 kt east of city
terminals.
.Saturday-Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Jose lifts slowly north through the Western Atlantic, eventually
moving more northeast tonight and then more east Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for
official track and intensity forecasts for Jose.

Ocean seas in response to increasing long period swells and
increasing winds are forecast to build to 12 to 18 ft into
tonight and stay near that range Wednesday. Seas near the
entrance to the LI Sound from the ocean will also become rough
and could approach the 7 to 10 ft range tonight.

In terms of winds, highest winds will be on the ocean, farther
offshore where the tighter pressure gradient will be and here
is where some tropical storm force winds are expected,
particularly east of Fire Island Inlet. Hence, the tropical storm
warning remains in effect for the ocean. The South Shore Bays and
Peconic and Gardiners Bays remain in a tropical storm watch.

For the Long Island Sound and NY Harbor, winds will not reach
as high, with sustained winds of near 20 to 25 kt with gusts to
30 kt and occasional gusts to 35 kt. Therefore, those waters have
a small craft advisory that remains in effect through Wednesday.

Seas and winds trend down Wednesday night as pressure gradient
slightly weakens.

Uncertainty regarding winds and seas increases from Thursday
through Sunday due mostly to the uncertainty of Jose`s eventual
track and strength during this period. What seems more probable is
that ocean seas remain at SCA levels due to a lingering swell.
For now, it appears that gusts over 25 kt would be possible mainly
east of moriches inlet and nearby the Race and Gardiner`s bay for
Thursday and Friday before winds subside further and likely
remain below advisory criteria through the weekend.

Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding Jose
from the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall amounts from Jose are expected to range
from near 0.25 inches across much of Long Island with near one
half inch across far eastern Long Island. Locally higher
rainfall amounts will be possible. Please continue to monitor
NHC and WPC forecasts for official information about Jose via:
http:/hurricanes.gov and http:/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

No hydrologic problems are otherwise anticipated through early next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells
from Jose, will bring dangerous surf of 7-13 ft tonight into
Wed morning. This will cause widespread dune erosion (waves
hitting base of dunes), and localized washovers (wave
overtopping dunes) through Wednesday.

With good confidence in track of Jose 1500-200 miles to the SE
of Long Island, have weighted forecast towards most likely
scenario. This points to potential for 1 1/2 to 2 ft...locally
2 1/2 ft...of surge during tonight into Wed morning high tide
cycles, which would result in widespread minor to moderate
coastal flooding. These surge values will result in 2 to
locally 3 ft inundation in our most vulnerable locations along
the southern bays of LI/NYC and Peconic/Gardiners Bay, with
generally 1 to locally 2 ft across other vulnerable coastal
areas. Wave action on top of elevated waters levels will
exacerbate impacts along the beachfront.

High surf will fall Wed afternoon into Wed Night, but remain
rough through the week. Additionally...minor coastal impacts are
likely to continue across vulnerable locales through the
remainder of the week as Jose sits about 250 miles se of the
region as Ekman pumping keeps elevated water levels along the
coast.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ074-075-178-
     179.
     Tropical Storm Watch for NYZ078>081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ071-078>081-177.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for NYZ080-178-179.
     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-
     335-338.
     Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ350-353-355.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS
SHORT TERM...JM/DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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