Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 032208
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
408 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTHERN UTAH THIS
EVENING. A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR
MIDWEEK...THOUGH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE MAY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS STILL PRODUCING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS OF 22Z. THIS TROUGH...COMBINED WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS IT DRAGGED UP FROM THE SOUTH...HAS PRODUCED
IMPRESSIVE-FOR-AUGUST STORM TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
MANY RAIN GAUGES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH OF RAIN...AND A FEW GREATER
THAN TWO INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

NOT WANTING TO BE LEFT OUT...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TODAY HAS BEEN ISOLATED BUT SIGNIFICANT....PARTICULARLY
ONE STORM IN SOUTHEASTERN UTAH THAT HAS HAD IMPRESSIVE RAIN AND
HAIL SIGNATURES ON RADAR AS IT MOVES THROUGH GARFIELD COUNTY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING...AND DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO UTAH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS REDUCED ACTIVITY COULD BE ALONG THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER...AS
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS WAVE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...A BROAD RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATER
THURSDAY...HELPING TO FUNNEL A FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE
STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRAS...IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OF AN
OPEN LOW. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY.

AFTER THE OPEN LOW ROUNDS THE RIDGE EAST OF THE CWA...EXPECT THE
RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA ONCE MORE. THIS WILL KEEP A LARGELY
DRY AND WARM PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THE UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER FAR
NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF RAIN AT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVAILING CEILINGS AROUND 5000
TO 6000 FEET ARE EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH 00Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLIMB DURING THE EVENING...REACHING TO AROUND 8000 TO
10000 FEET BY LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT NORTHERN UTAH
THIS EVENING...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO UTAH BEHIND THE
STORM. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS
THIS WEEK...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RETURN FROM
THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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