Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 301348
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
948 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z TBW SOUNDING DEPICTS A UNIFORMLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THERE HAS
BEEN SOME COOLING IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WHICH WILL GIVE US STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER THAN USUAL TO
GET THROUGH A WEAK WARM LAYER NEAR 800 MBS...BUT ONCE IT DOES
THERE IS NOTHING LEFT TO LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...LOCAL AND NATIONALLY RUN...ARE
SHOWING A LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLISION ALONG THE COAST NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST. A QUICK GLANCE AT THE
11Z HRRR IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO...WHICH
LENDS CONFIDENCE TO MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. THE
ONLY QUESTION IS IN TIMING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE AFTER 5 PM...AND IT COULD EVEN BE CLOSER TO 7 OR 8
PM. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST. WINDS THROUGH 15KFT ARE ALL
EASTERLY SO ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL DEFINITELY
MOVE TOWARD OUR SIDE OF THE STATE. THE QUESTION IS SPEED. OVERALL
STORM MOTION OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE
SLOW...LIKELY ONLY AROUND 5 MPH TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MAIN THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND OF COURSE PLENTY OF LIGHTNING. IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WHERE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SEA BREEZE INDUCED STORMS IS
EXPECTED. TIMING MAY BE LATER THAN USUAL...POSSIBLY EVEN CLOSER TO
00Z. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS
TO AN ONSHORE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  77  93  78 /  80  40  40  30
FMY  93  75  94  76 /  60  20  40  30
GIF  93  75  94  75 /  60  20  40  20
SRQ  92  76  94  75 /  80  30  40  30
BKV  94  74  94  73 /  70  30  40  20
SPG  93  80  93  79 /  70  40  40  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...JILLSON
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA




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