Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 291328
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
928 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING IS SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.09
INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT STILL PLENTY MOIST TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SURGE OF MOISTURE
COMING INTO THE NATURE COAST LATER TODAY...SO EXPECT THE HIGHEST
RAIN COVERAGE TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM THIS
EVENING FOR HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH
COUNTIES. RAINFALL WAS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE YESTERDAY...SO
UNLESS THE WATCH AREA SEES SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TODAY...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...AND ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN NORTH
THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. AT TIMES...THIS WILL LEAD TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK UP OVER THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE IN TOWARDS THE TAF
SITES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 3 FEET
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  88  78 /  40  40  70  40
FMY  89  77  89  77 /  60  30  50  30
GIF  91  76  90  75 /  50  20  60  20
SRQ  88  78  88  78 /  40  40  60  40
BKV  91  75  89  74 /  50  40  70  30
SPG  88  78  87  78 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD



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