Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 201934
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
334 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH/STALLED OUT BOUNDARY REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...THEN AS
THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND THIN OUT WITH
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATE. DURING SUNDAY
THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT MOVE VERY MUCH WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF IT AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE DRIER
AIR SHOULD PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A RATHER WET START TO THE WEEK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
U.S. WITH A STRONG S/W DISTURBANCE DIGGING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WILL INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TUESDAY WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST AS EASTERLY FLOW
ENHANCES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. AN U/L
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WILL DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION A BIT...BUT SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.
THEN OVERNIGHT THE CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING SOUTH OF SARASOTA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIGRATE BACK NORTH BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK
HELPING TO MAINTAIN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  87  73  88 /  30  30  20  70
FMY  73  88  74  88 /  50  50  20  70
GIF  70  89  72  90 /  30  30  20  70
SRQ  72  86  73  88 /  30  40  20  70
BKV  68  89  68  89 /  30  20  20  50
SPG  75  86  77  86 /  30  30  20  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...07/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING




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