Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 051942
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
242 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...SEA FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT...CLOUDY AND COOLER TOMORROW...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM APALACHICOLA WILL MOVE INTO
TAMPA BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN THROUGH FORT MYERS BY DAYBREAK.
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR CRYSTAL
RIVER WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

SEA FOG OFFSHORE OF CEDAR KEY WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD. EXPECT MORE
SEA FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONT DUE TO INCREASED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WESTERLY WINDS TO MOVE FOG ONSHORE.

LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AS
IT STALLS IN FAR SOUTH FLORIDA.


.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)......SOMEWHAT COOL
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT WHILE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS OVER S FL AND SHALLOW COOL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BRINGS LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHWARD WITH WARMING CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IN THE DESERT SW
FINALLY AND SLOWLY EJECTING EASTWARD TO START NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN GULF REGION AND/OR HOLDING SOME REMNANTS IN
THE GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. EITHER WAY...SOLUTIONS KEEP SW FLOW ALOFT
WITH WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AREAWIDE WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO TAMPA BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FORT
MYERS BY DAYBREAK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE. VISIBILITY IMPROVES TO P6SM AFTER
13Z BUT MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT COULD BLOW THE FOG INTO COASTAL COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FOG WILL END AS THE COLD FRONT HEADS SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  72  55  73 /  10  20  20  10
FMY  66  83  62  80 /   0  20  10  20
GIF  65  74  55  73 /  10  20  20  20
SRQ  64  75  58  74 /  10  20  10  10
BKV  60  69  50  71 /  10  20  20  10
SPG  66  73  58  72 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&
$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT/LONG TERM...25/DAVIS
MARINE...07/DOUGHERTY




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