Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 291417 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTY COASTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ASHORE ALONG THE SUNCOAST AND TAMPA BAY AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS TRAILING IN NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -5 DEG C ON THIS MORNING/S
12Z TBW SOUNDING...HAIL CONCERNS ARE MUTED. NOT MUCH OF A SETUP
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH AN ISOLATED GUSTY STORM OR WATERSPOUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY AND
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. TRAINING OF STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE AN ISSUE IF THE FRONTAL PROGRESS SLOWS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST POPS BASED OFF OBSERVED TRENDS AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE LATEST LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
NEW ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT WITH THESE CHANGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS ACROSS AN AREA PREVENTING WARMING...BUT THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THIS
FORECAST CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CREEPING SOUTHWARD. TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY
OUT OF THE WEST...WITH VARIABLE GUSTINESS AROUND CONVECTION.
TERMINALS IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAIN COULD DETERIORATE TO LIFR
BRIEFLY. TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL BE FIRST TO CLEAR OUT AS
THE COLD FRONT NEARS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A COOL FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH
TODAY BEFORE THEY SUBSIDE BY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
AND DISSIPATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH STARTING WEDNESDAY FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REPLACES THE OLD FRONT.
HEADLINES...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  76 /  60  30  10   0
FMY  92  78  93  77 /  60  50  50  20
GIF  93  75  95  74 /  60  30  20  10
SRQ  91  79  92  76 /  60  50  30  10
BKV  93  71  94  67 /  60  20  10  10
SPG  90  80  92  79 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.