Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 270703
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN A TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EASTWARD
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...BUT
STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT WELL
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DRY NOTCH IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE MODELS HAVE THIS DRY AIR MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GIVE US
A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM ON WEDNESDAY...BUT POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE AT BEST...THEN DECREASING FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM
AS WELL RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS UNCHANGED DURING THE MID/LONG TERM AS SOME
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
HAVE SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS
THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER ON WEDNESDAY AS FAR AS
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  89  75  88  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE


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