Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 040757
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
357 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ALREADY SEEING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO
MOVE ASHORE OVER THE COMING HOURS. THIS FORECAST THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY THE MOST RECENT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CYCLES. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO PUSH
INLAND ALONG WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. BEST RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY.

AS WE GET INTO SATURDAY ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE WITH
PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A LOW ALOFT JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE STATE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT WEST AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. E/NE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S/SE
MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR LOWS...AND IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH LIGHT NW FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. HAVE MENTION OF VCSH DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AROUND THE BAY AREA TERMINALS AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS. VCTS MENTIONED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND REACHING OVER FL WILL GIVE
WAY TO WEAK TROUGHING THAT MOVES IN DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GRADIENT STAYS RELAXED WITH BENIGN WINDS
AND SEAS. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS MAINLY OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  90  76 /  40  20  60  30
FMY  92  77  91  75 /  30  10  60  30
GIF  92  75  91  74 /  60  30  60  20
SRQ  90  76  90  75 /  20  20  60  30
BKV  91  73  90  72 /  30  10  60  30
SPG  90  79  89  77 /  30  20  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.