Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
120
FXUS62 KTBW 091032
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
532 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH BRISK WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP BEHIND IT.
THIS COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE STILL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 60S AND WILL LIKELY ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
DURING TODAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TONIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT HELPING TO SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND POSSIBLY CAUSING A FEW MORE LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THIS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES
FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. SKIES WILL BEGIN SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...BUT REMAIN PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. ON WEDNESDAY THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BUT THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WITH RIDGING OUT WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL SHIFT OVER FLORIDA FOR THURSDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE...WE SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION FOR FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...AND WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP
(WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70).

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE PERSISTENT TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ON SATURDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL FOR SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY BUT THEN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE REGION...AND THIS
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER BRIEF WARM-UP FOR MONDAY AS WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
STRATOCUMULUS IN FROM THE GULF...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ROBUST WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
JUMPED UP RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING FOR
TAMPA BAY THROUGH TODAY WHILE ALLOWING THE GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE
LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LEAVING THE REST OF THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS IS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL AND ERC VALUES LOW. THEREFORE...THE ONLY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE HIGH DISPERSION VALUES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  59  45  57  42 /  20  10   0   0
FMY  64  49  61  43 /  10  10   5   0
GIF  59  40  58  39 /  10   5   0   0
SRQ  60  48  59  43 /  20  10   5   0
BKV  56  39  55  34 /  10   5   0   0
SPG  59  49  57  47 /  20  10   5   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
     INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
     INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INLAND
     LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
     1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CHARLOTTE
     HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.