Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 252323
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
623 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Rain has all but come to an end across the forecast area this
afternoon although embedded short wave/MCV remains over east central
KS and seems to be slowly pushing east and southeast. This final
area of vertical motion is rather weak, but could support a few more
showers mainly south of Abilene to Ottawa but only a slight chance.

Drier air and high pressure are present over northern KS and
southern Nebraska, but with cloud cover and minimal advection across
much of the forecast area, dewpoints remain fairly high while
dewpoint depressions are rather small. With the expectation that
some of these clouds will clear out tonight, see some potential for
fog but have not gotten too aggressive with it in the forecast at
this point. The most likely areas for fog development would be those
areas that received appreciable rain in the past 24 hours but will
also clear out and also have the higher initial dewpoints. This
focused area currently seems to be in the general
Concordia/Manhattan/Abilene/Council Grove region, but again this is
not a slam dunk for fog development and will want to monitor
potential this evening.

Do not expect precipitation tonight or tomorrow with relatively dry
air and no appreciable lifting mechanism so have reduced pops to
near 0 for much of the period. Lows tonight look to hold in the
middle to upper 60s with some dependence upon cloud cover and/or fog
while highs tomorrow should climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Tomorrow night surface high pressure will be centered over the Great
Lakes region. The overall flow over this surface high is rather
weak. Although the models are showing hints of some isentropic lift
in the 310-315K surfaces over southeast KS. Moisture is also limited
in these layers, but have kept slight chances in those areas. This
lift could continue over eastern KS into the late morning, but most
locations should remain dry. On Wednesday night a shortwave trough
will dive southeastward over the northern plains within the
northwest flow aloft. This wave could support a thunderstorm complex
that develops in SD or NE that moves towards the forecast area. The
low level jet is not forecasted to be strong overnight therefore the
complex might not reach northern KS before falling apart. There may
be some left over showers and or redevelopment as the wave passes
over IA during the day Thursday. Thursday night another wave may
track over western NE and support a storm complex that again moves
southeastward overnight. Also, there may be some isentropic lift
that stretches across central KS. A few isolated to scattered
storms may be possible out ahead of the complex. This wave may be
strong enough to allow this complex to continue through the area
during the day Friday. The weekend is looking mostly dry as of
now. Especially with the upper ridge beginning to build back over
the region. Temperatures are forecasted to be slight below normal
until early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Main concern is whether a radiational fog develops or dry air
advection from the northeast prevents it. In general most guidance
is showing some MVFR VSBY probable between 10Z and 13Z. The setup
fits the conceptual models of recent rains with limited daytime
mixing allowing for a more humid boundary layer overnight. With
the ridge in the area, think winds will be light enough for some
ground fog to form and have added it to the forecast.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters



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