Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 142343
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
543 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions with extensive mid/high clouds expected through 15z
TUL/RVS/BVO then mostly clear behind short wave trough. MVFR cigs
continue at this time sern OK and west central AR with IFR
conditions nwrn AR sites. MLC expected to go VFR by 03z as low clouds
shift se of there. Wrn AR sites likely to continue IFR through
tonight then becoming VFR after 15z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface boundary that is currently near a KMLC TO KADF line will
sag south of the red river as we move into the evening hours. There
will continue to be a chance of rain showers and even an isolated
thunderstorm in the vicinity of this boundary as we move through
the overnight hours and into Monday as a mid-level shortwave moves
out of the rockies and across the plains. May also see a few sprinkles
or flurries across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas late
tonight into Monday morning in association with this feature.

Another weak mid-level shortwave will sweep out of the northern rockies
and across the central plains on Monday into Monday night. This will
push another weak surface boundary across the region Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Will keep the forecast dry during this time-frame but
may need to add some small pops as the time grows closer.

As we move into mid to late week, the heat will be the big story as
afternoon high temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above normal
for this time of year across much of the area as the low level winds
become south-southwesterly. Fire weather will be a concern during
this time with all the dry vegetation in place across the area.

The next chances of showers and thunderstorms will be over the weekend
as a cold front moves through the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  65  44  65 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   37  63  40  66 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   39  65  41  67 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   34  63  34  63 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   31  61  35  62 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   33  57  37  61 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   37  62  38  63 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   34  61  39  61 /  10  10  10  10
F10   38  64  41  65 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   46  66  41  70 /  50  40   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...69


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.