Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 251117
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
617 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Strong south winds will dominate the first 12 hours of the
forecast period, with higher gusts over 20kt likely. Storms will
form late today along an approaching cold front. Given the already
strong wind field, will add variable convective gusts with
expected timing at most of the TAF sites. Storms may have a
tendency to backbuild or train, so will allow a period of
stratiform rain after the initial line passes.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 331 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/
Low level moisture continues to surge north this morning ahead of
upper trough digging south through the central/southern Rockies.
Warm/windy conditions forecast today ahead of approaching system.
Cap will likely erode by early evening in association with coupled
upper level jet structure/stronger forcing. As front moves into
northeast Oklahoma this evening, strong to severe thunderstorms
will likely develop west of highway 75/north of I-44. Large
hail/damaging winds will be the main threats as convection quickly
becomes more linear in nature with storms moving into the I-44
corridor around midnight. It should be mentioned that a limited
tornado threat will be possible with any discrete storms that
initially develop this evening. A limited severe threat will
persist overnight as the cold front moves into southeast
Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas by Wednesday morning. Could see a
brief intensification with marginal heating into the day
Wednesday before front shifts east.
Significantly cooler/breezy conditions will develop behind front
Wednesday with low temperatures Wednesday night around 40 degrees
across northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas as surface high
settles over area. Secondary upper wave will quickly move across
Thursday evening with scattered showers and maybe an isolated
thunderstorm or two across the north.
A much stronger upper level storm system will move into the four
region by late Friday afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms
will quickly develop by Friday evening, becoming more widespread
through the overnight hours as warm front lifts into northeast
Oklahoma by Saturday morning. Large hail, damaging winds and a
few tornadoes will be possible with the stronger convective cells.
Locally heavy rainfall is also expected as precipitable water
values climb into the 1.25-1.5 inch range.
Although the severe weather threat will likely continue through
the day Saturday along and ahead of front, heavy rain/flooding
will become a major concern. Widespread 3 to 4 inch rainfall
amounts expected with locally 6 inches possible Friday and
Saturday which will likely cause significant river/flash flooding
given the already saturated grounds/higher lake levels. The heavy
rain threat should diminish Saturday night as cold front moves
into the mid Mississippi river valley by Sunday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 82 55 57 41 / 10 70 70 30
FSM 83 67 72 43 / 10 60 80 30
MLC 83 63 65 42 / 10 50 60 20
BVO 82 50 55 38 / 10 70 60 30
FYV 81 62 65 39 / 10 70 80 40
BYV 82 63 70 42 / 10 60 80 40
MKO 81 60 62 40 / 10 70 70 30
MIO 79 55 57 40 / 10 70 70 30
F10 82 58 58 42 / 10 50 60 20
HHW 83 67 72 42 / 10 40 70 20