842
FXUS64 KTSA 011920
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
220 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Generally weakening MCS continues to push eastward this afternoon
across parts of southeast Oklahoma. Development of a wake low on
the northern side of the MCS has led to some gusty winds on the
periphery of the MCS, and will likely continue as it pushes
eastward into Arkansas this afternoon. Storms have generally been
on the weakening trend, but high moisture content will continue to
pose a heavy rain threat with any of the stronger cells embedded
in the system. As the MCS moves off to the east this afternoon, a
relatively quiet afternoon/evening should be in store for most of
the forecast area. A few scattered thunderstorms will be possible
across far northeast Oklahoma through the afternoon and evening
within a low level warm advection regime. Any storms could become
marginally severe, with large hail the main concern, though mid
level capping remains in place in the wake of widespread overnight
convection across eastern Oklahoma, limiting the overall coverage
of storms this afternoon.

Otherwise a warm and humid afternoon is expected across the
forecast area with the exception of where the MCS continues to
churn. Attention will then turn to the overnight hours, with
increasing shower and storm chances expected. Storms are expected
to develop this afternoon across the eastern Texas Panhandle and
into western Oklahoma. This activity will eventually grow upscale
and move eastward into the overnight hours. Thus, another MCS is
expected to impact eastern Oklahoma late tonight and early
tomorrow morning. Trends in latest observations would tend to
favor a more northeastward track to the MCS than what has been
depicted in most model guidance throughout the day. The ongoing
MCS across southeast Oklahoma will limit the amount of recovery in
that area through the rest of the afternoon and thus leave a
robust theta-e/instability gradient from northeast Oklahoma (where
clearing has occurred) through southeast Oklahoma (which remains
cloudy and cool). The developing MCS would likely favor more of a
northeastward track along the instability gradient, bringing
better storm chances into northeast Oklahoma for the late tonight
time frame. The system will likely be in a weakening state as mid
level capping increase toward sunrise tomorrow morning, but some
strong winds could still be possible as the more organized MCS
enters eastern Oklahoma.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Ongoing MCS across the area Thursday morning will shift eastward
and weaken with time through the morning as it moves into
northwest Arkansas. What happens Wednesday night/Thursday morning
will play a role in the evolution of rain chances later in the day
Thursday and overnight. A frontal boundary is forecast to move
into the area during the day Thursday. If the atmosphere can
recover in time in the wake of previous convection, a renewed
round of showers and storms will be likely along the frontal
boundary Thursday evening, with some severe potential depending on
the airmass in place by that time.

A relative lull in the action is expected on Friday, with some
lingering showers/storms across southeast Oklahoma as the frontal
boundary becomes stalled and washes out during the day Friday.
Broad western CONUS troughing will continue into the weekend
however, allowing for the active pattern to continue through the
weekend. Shower and storm chances increase again on Saturday and
Sunday as several shortwave speed maxes rotate through the larger
scale trough and move out over the Plains. Uncertainty remains in
the severe threat after several days of convection across the
Plains modifying the airmass. But, with it being May, can`t rule
out severe potential any day with storms around the area. The
main upper trough is progged to become negatively tilted and
eject out into the Central Plains on Monday which could bring the
next chance for more widespread severe potential to the region,
but will continue to be dependent on how much the atmosphere has
been worked over by previous convection at that point. This trough
should finally push a frontal boundary through the region and
potentially allow for a brief quieter period for the middle part
of next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Thunderstorm complex will continue to move across Southeast
Oklahoma through mid afternoon with scattered mid and high clouds
becoming common over the CWA behind the departing complex. Few to
scattered mid/high clouds are expected into the overnight hours
before increasing low and mid clouds late tonight and Thursday
morning. Thunderstorm chances also increase during this time
period from west to east and will continue with Prob30 groups for
timing. Within these storm chances....MVFR conditions become
possible and could linger to the end of the TAF period. Winds
through the period are forecast to remain generally out of the
south to southeast...with the exception of KFSM where more
easterly winds return tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  78  60  80 /  30  70  60  20
FSM   66  77  64  82 /  20  80  60  40
MLC   66  78  62  82 /  50  80  60  30
BVO   63  77  56  79 /  40  70  50  10
FYV   64  77  59  81 /  10  70  60  30
BYV   65  78  61  79 /   0  60  60  20
MKO   66  76  61  80 /  30  70  60  20
MIO   66  76  59  79 /  20  70  70  10
F10   65  78  61  79 /  40  80  60  20
HHW   65  76  64  79 /  60  90  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20