Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 012135
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK CIRCULATION WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS MONDAY ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE
AREA BRIEFLY DRIES OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS TOWERING OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS HAVE RESULTED IN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SUBDUED
ELSEWHERE BUT SOME CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AROUND THE AREA AND SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE BEGINNING
TO SHOW UP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.

CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO DROP OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THEN MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA MONDAY AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE
MORE MONDAY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. POPS WERE INCREASED A LITTLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOST VALLEYS AND DESERTS NORTH OF I-40 ALSO
STANDING A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONVECTION WILL END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING AS THE WEAK LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND WARMING
ALOFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A BROAD
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CLIMBING 4-6
DEGREES MONDAY IN SPITE OF THE WEEK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY, PROVIDING DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AS A
LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY SOUTH WINDS WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SPIN INTO A CLOSED, CUTOFF LOW ON
THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, EVEN LONGER IF THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION
PANS OUT. WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY, BUT BETTER CHANCES EXIST THURSDAY. MOISTURE
AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. TOUGH
TO TELL WHEN THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS THE
FASTER SOLUTION THIS MORNING, WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE LOW
OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. 24 HOURS AGO, THE GFS WAS THE FASTER
SOLUTION. THE MEAN FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE SLIGHTLY LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF, YET WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER THE SPRING AND SHEEP RANGE
SURROUNDING THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS ALL ARRIVAL
CORRIDORS. LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS TO AROUND 8-10K FT...A FEW MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS...AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE WILL CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...LOCALLY
REDUCED CIGS TO AROUND 8-10K FT...A FEW MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...AND
LOCALIZED TURBULENCE WILL CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST
TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...PULLIN

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