Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 251634
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
834 AM PST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and cool conditions are expected today. Winds and
temperatures will increase Monday as a low pressure system
approaches. This system will bring a chance of rain and snow to the
region Monday night through Tuesday night along with a drop in high
temperatures for Tuesday. Dry conditions will return Wednesday with
yet another storm possibly impacting the area late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
The forecast appears to be on track for quiet weather today. Breezy,
north to northwest flow will prevail this morning, decreasing as we
go into the afternoon as flow shifts west to southwest. Breezes will
linger longest down the Colorado River Valley. Temperatures remain
similar to yesterday with an increase of only a degree or two. The
beginning effects of the next weather system will start tomorrow as
a closed low dives southward along the CA coast. Locally this will
create breezy, southwest flow with gusts primarily between 30-40 mph
ahead of the system and a jump in temps of 5-10 degrees for Monday
afternoon.

&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday Night

A dry northwest flow this morning will transition to a westerly flow
this afternoon with dry and cool conditions expected. Some
north/northwest breezes may linger early this morning but winds
should be decreasing in most areas. Dry conditions will continue for
most of the area through Monday as the next upper low drops south
into northern California. The models seem a bit slower with the
progression of this system than previous runs with precipitation
chances just barely working into far northwest Inyo and northern
Esmeralda County late Monday. Otherwise southwesterly winds will be
increasing with temperatures warming compared to today. Winds don`t
look to get too crazy but some breezy to windy conditions are likely
across a good portion of the CWA. The strongest winds look to be
across the Sierra early in the day, then spreading into northwest
San Bernardino and the higher terrain of southern Inyo, southern Nye
and western Clark Counties. At this time wind speeds look to remain
just below advisory levels for the most part in those areas. The
upper low will continue to drop south to southern California Monday
night and Tuesday. Precipitation chances at this time look to spread
over areas mainly northwest of I-15 Monday night, then across the
entire area Tuesday. The low will start to weaken and move east into
Arizona Tuesday night with precipitation chances transitioning to
areas mainly southeast of I-15. The latest model runs are not very
impressive with QPF amounts, with most areas getting less than two
tenths of an inch liquid equivalent for the storm total. Many
locations may only end up with a trace. The area that may get more
is the Sierra where maybe a third of an inch of liquid equivalent is
possible, resulting in around 6 inches of snow near the crest. Snow
levels with this storm are forecast to be mainly between 2000 and
3000 feet but could be closer to 4000 feet in Mohave County which
remains in a southerly flow much of the time.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

There may be a few lingering showers in far southeastern Mohave
County early Wednesday morning. However, conditions should improve
quickly as a trough progresses east through Arizona. The pattern
remains active and unsettled for the second half of the week as
models depict the next deep low around Vancouver Island at 12z
Thursday. The low slowly slides down the Pacific Northwest Coast
over the next 24 hours. As the trough slowly sags south a modest AR
event will occur with highest axis of IVT values reaching the
southern Sierra Nevada Thursday. Beyond Thursday, models diverge
with latest ECMWF solution keeping the area unsettled under a deeper
trough. GFS not as deep thus keeping more of the precipitation
across central and northern Nevada. Using the SuperBlend and NBM
output hedging more toward the ECMWF keeping the best chance for
precipitation around Las Vegas Thursday night-Saturday. Snow levels
look to range between 4000 to 5000 ft Thursday and Friday, although
snow levels should fall to the Owens Valley floor Thursday night. By
Saturday, forecast snow levels range between 3500 and 4500 feet.
Preceding the trough breezy to windy conditions will develop on
Thursday and Friday. &&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...A northwest-north wind component around
10 knots should prevail through late morning. Winds will lessen by
late morning shifting to a northeast-east component with wind speeds
decreasing through the afternoon. Typical downvalley wind expected
to develop this evening and continue overnight. VFR conditions for
the forecast period through Monday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...A gusty north wind will prevail down the Colorado River
Valley today impact the KIFP and KEED terminals. Elsewhere,
northerly winds will decrease throughout the day. VFR conditions
will prevail through Monday morning.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotter activation is not
anticipated through the weekend. Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrison
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Pierce
UPDATE...Guillet

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