Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 242139
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
139 PM PST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A fast moving disturbance will dive over southern Nevada
and surrounding areas late Saturday and early Sunday followed by a
more broad low pressure system Monday and Tuesday. This will provide
windy periods and the potential for a few brief snow showers over
the mountains followed by a dry weather pattern with a warming trend
the rest of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday.

The dry northwest flow over the region will keep similar weather
conditions over our forecast area most of the day Saturday with
slightly warmer temperatures. Winds will increase across San
Bernardino County Saturday afternoon ahead of the low pressure
system diving down the California Coast. However...the latest MOS
guidance and high res wind models indicate wind gusts will generally
be in the 25-35 mph range across the Mojave Desert zones. The latest
NAM, GFS and ECMWF now are in good agreement that this system will
have little additional impact on our forecast area. It is forecast
to quickly dive across southern California into southwest Arizona
between 12Z and 18Z Sunday with the cold pool most of the moisture
near the SoCal Coast. So, PoP values were reduced further Saturday
night and Sunday with only the higher terrain possibly picking up
some light snow showers or flurries. Snow levels will be around 3000-
3500 feet around 12Z Sunday. The rest of the day Sunday should be
fairly decent with only scattered clouds and temperatures similar to
Saturday.

The next upstream short wave is forecast to drop over the Pacific
Northwest late Sunday and brush the northern Great Basin Sunday
night. This will lead to a mean trough over the region Monday and
Tuesday with some additional energy moving through for some breezy
to windy periods and a few snow showers or flurries over the higher
terrain of the southern Great Basin and northwest Arizona.
Temperatures will remain remain several degrees below normal, but
will increase a few degrees from the weekend.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Friday.

Dry northwest flow will hold over the region behind the exiting
broad trough and ahead of an eastern Pacific ridge. The ridge is
forecast to expand inland the rest of the week with temperatures
climbing 3-5 degrees each day...allowing highs to climb back above
normal.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light and variable winds today will
transition to a typical drainage/southwest direction tonight with
light winds varying between northeast and southeast expected once
again tomorrow. By late tomorrow afternoon, the Las Vegas Valley
will likely be on the northern end of a belt of enhanced
westerlies, stretching from KDAG to KIGM, which may end up
sneaking into the valley. Patches of high clouds will drift
overhead, but no operationally significant weather expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and
southeast California...Light winds are forecast outside of a belt
of enhanced westerly winds, around a line from KDAG to KIGM.
Showers are possible Saturday evening from KBIH eastward across
the southern Great Basin, remaining north of KLAS. Outside the
aforementioned area, just patches of high clouds are forecast.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Weather impacts are
expected to be low over the weekend and early next week, however
spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts
according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Long Term...Adair
Aviation...Steele


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