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000
FXUS65 KVEF 232222
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
322 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED ABOUT AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WINDS WERE STILL NOT QUITE ADVISORY LEVEL
YET IN NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING. THE
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS AND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LIFTS A BIT TO THE NORTH. THERE WILL STILL BE LOCALLY
BREEZY SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AGAIN.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN FINALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SO THE ONLY IMPACTS
EXPECTED ARE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.
IN GENERAL...A BROAD TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. THE HIGHLIGHT WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH WITHIN THE FLOW AND DEEPENING THE TROUGH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL RAISE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. SOLUTIONS STILL VARY WIDELY
WITH FINER DETAILS SO HAVE BASED ANY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH WOULD BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS. BY WEDNESDAY THE
FEATURE WILL BE EAST OF THE THE REGION AND A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN AND EXTEND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF BY MID EVENING...AND ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. DIRECTIONS FAVORING CONFIGURATION #1 ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED ACROSS AZ
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102 TODAY AND THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER IN THE
COMING DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS A BIT TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN LOW.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ102.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ523.
&&

$$

HARRISON/KENNEDY

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