Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 262115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
215 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tranquil weather is expected through Thursday before the
next system moves through the area Thursday night and Friday, with
chances of precipitation increasing especially for northern parts of
the region.  After a brief break on Saturday, another system is
likely to affect the area late this weekend.

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night.

High pressure will be shifting east of the area tonight and Thursday
as a low pressure system approaches the coast. We will see an
increase in high clouds with mild temperatures. Some southerly
breezes will develop across mainly the northern half of the forecast
area Thursday afternoon. There is an outside chance of enough of a
moisture increase over the Sierra for a few showers late in the day
but confidence in that happening is low. The low pressure system
will weaken into an open wave and move across the area Thursday
night and Friday bringing a chance of showers to pretty much the
entire forecast area with the best chances over the mountains and
the southern Great Basin zones. There are some timing differences
between the models and from run to run with the latest model runs
generally a bit slower spreading the moisture east. I made some
adjustments to delay the eastward spread of precipitation chances
Thursday night and also kept shower chances a little further west
Friday evening before most of the area dries out overnight Friday
night. A dry southwest flow will be over the area Saturday before
the next wave approaches the area from the west Saturday night.
There is some model agreement that there will be just enough
moisture ahead of this feature to justify mentioning a slight chance
of showers over some mountain areas overnight Saturday night. Again,
there are model differences with this moisture increase so I only
adjusted pops upwards a little bit for now. Due to the influence of
the upper trough moving across the area, we should see areas of
breezy southwest winds Friday and Saturday. This system is not a
cold system and snow levels and surface temperatures look to remain
relatively high.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.

The shortwave mentioned in the end of the short term will swing
through the area roughly Sunday and Sunday evening but timing
differences in the models make for a low confidence forecast. For
now I kept a chance of showers for most areas except the southeast
CWA on Sunday with precipitation chances decreasing Sunday night. It
looks like we should be under a dry west to southwest flow Monday
and Tuesday. Models are showing fairly significant differences in
the pattern for Wednesday ranging from high pressure to a closed
low over the area. For now I just kept a dry forecast going. &&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light, diurnally-driven winds are
expected through Thursday. VFR conditions are forecast with
some high clouds.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...South breezes will continue in the Owens Valley and
southern Great Basin through early evening (speeds 10-20 kts with
gusts to 25 kts or so). Otherwise, light/diurnally-driven flow
expected across the area through tonight. Most areas will see south
winds 10 to 20 knots Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions through
Thursday morning with increasing high clouds. Later Thursday
afternoon, some showers may move into the Sierra with mountain
obscurations. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotter activation is not
anticipated through early next week. Spotters should report
significant weather according to standard operating procedures.



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