Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 250727
SWODY3
SPC AC 250726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MID-MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN FIXED ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
BASIN. GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A
STALLED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH...WHILE A SEPARATE WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SWD/WWD ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS REINFORCED OVER SRN CANADA.

...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY
PARTS OF THE WED/D3 PERIOD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND DAKOTAS.
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY /PERHAPS CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED/ IS FORECAST TO
SAG SWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS NEB...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
POSITIONED ACROSS ND INTO MN. RICHEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NEB/SD AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING A
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON...BUT THE DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL
OCCUR REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. LATEST THINKING IS ONE OR TWO SWD
MOVING CLUSTERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PARTS OF MARGINAL RISK AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE BLACK HILLS AND INTO WRN ND AND SERN MT WITHIN
A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE MAINTAINED NEAR/E OF THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SCENARIOS
PRECLUDES SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATION ATTM.

..ROGERS.. 07/25/2016

$$


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