Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
ACUS03 KWNS 020731
SWODY3
SPC AC 020730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN ND INTO NWRN MN...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS A DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH WEAKER IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SERN STATES.
AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NWRN ND SWWD INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES EARLY FRIDAY WITH A LEE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD AND
LIKELY EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH SD INTO WY AND NRN UT BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

...NRN PLAINS THROUGH NWRN MN AREA...

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY OVER A
PORTION OF THE DAKOTAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEWD ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS ND INTO MN THE MOIST WARM
SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
WITHIN BELT OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A MODEST
MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL AUGMENT DEEP-LAYER WIND
PROFILES WITH VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. WILL
INTRODUCE A MARGINAL RISK THIS OUTLOOK...BUT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES.

..DIAL.. 09/02/2015



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.