Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 010828
SWODY3
SPC AC 010827

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
SWLY MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
KS/OK INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NERN STATES...AS A
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN...AND A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  MEANWHILE...A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN DURING DAY 3 AS IT TRACKS
NEWD WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME.  AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD REACH LOWER MI
BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN PROGRESS INTO SRN QUEBEC BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.  THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAN IS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z
NAM.  THE FORMER TWO MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM
LOWER MI THROUGH SRN IL...CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH TX BY 04/00Z...AND
REACH A LINE FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SRN
APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL MS/NRN LA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX BY 04/12Z.

...ARKLATEX AND OZARKS TO LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION
THROUGH THE OZARKS WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA.  AS THE
LLJ ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TROUGH VEERS
AND TRANSLATES NEWD...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND WAA SHOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF KY/TN
TUESDAY MORNING.  MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
AID IN MOISTENING THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
TN VALLEY...POOR LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SURFACE-BASED PRIOR TO BEING UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE ORGANIZED STORMS...THE MEAGER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES THE
INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS.. 03/01/2015



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