Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 300709
SWODY3
SPC AC 300708

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY
AND ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ARKLATEX...

PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO ERN KS/OK/NERN TX BY
03/00Z.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...LIKELY BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING ACROSS ERN KS/OK.

FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN DURING
THE DAY2 PERIOD SHOULD AID NWD ADVANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.  EARLY IN THE
PERIOD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS IA INTO SWRN WI/NWRN IL.  WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IT APPEARS MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE MS
VALLEY WHERE 6-8HR OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID INSTABILITY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LINEAR BAND OF STORMS
WILL FORM ALONG COLD FRONT WITH INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AFTER 18Z
AS WEAK CAP IS REMOVED.  SEASONALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID
EWD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION AT SPEEDS AOA 30KT.  SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE MS RIVER BY 03/00Z.  MOST BUOYANT
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 09/30/2014



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