Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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332 FXUS63 KABR 071742 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1242 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The weather pattern will remain unsettled through Friday with periods of showers and thunderstorms. - Below average temperatures can be expected through at least Friday, with perhaps a warming trend this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 1026 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Low pressure centered over north central SD this morning will continue to bring strong and gusty (40 mph+) westerly winds to central/south central SD through the day. In fact, after looking at the latest guidance/soundings/obs, decided to issue a Wind Advisory for the southern portion of the CWA. Also seeing areas of showers and light rain across north central SD under the surface low. Expect additional development through the day and made some small adjustments to PoPs to account for current and expected trends. Temps today will generally remain in the 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 An area of strong low pressure continues to spin over western SD this morning. Central and northeast SD should stay dry slotted for most of the day with north central having the best chance (30-40%) of seeing a shower. On the fringes of the showers, there have been some impressive wind gusts (60 to 65 mph) in western SD. Not expecting those to filter further into central SD unless there`s a stray shower that could help enhance winds, but even upper level winds are around 40 to 45 kts. Generally, expecting strongest winds across south central SD this morning in the range of 35 to 45 mph with perhaps a brief, localized gust to 50 mph. The lack of spatial coverage and expected length of residence time resulted in the no- headline decision this morning. However, H7 winds do pick up this afternoon, so may need to reassess mixing potential based on how observations pan out this morning. The low weakens and continues to meander around the western SD/ND border into Wednesday. As the upper low dives southeast Wednesday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region. Some of the storms may become strong in east central SD Wednesday afternoon as the region is on the edge of an inverted sfc trough. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Wednesday night, the upper level low is still making its way across the region. During the day Thursday, the NAM, EC and Canadian all show the upper level low splitting in half with the western half moving back west to be absorbed by a low over southern NV while the eastern half continues to move southeast towards KS and OK. The last few runs, the Canadian and EC have been showing a shortwave coming down from Canada Friday afternoon and now the GFS has started to show that as well. This will move fairly quickly across the area. The rest of the period will have a generally northwest flow pattern. Rain chances decrease overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning then Thursday and Friday are expected to be dry, for the most part. Areas along and east of the James River have a 15 to 35 percent chance for some showers Friday afternoon. Slight chances (15 to 25 percent) return Monday afternoon and last through the end of the period. For the most part, winds will be around normal, but Friday could have some gusts of 30 to 35 mph as that shortwave makes its way across the area. Temperatures through the period will be on an upward swing with highs in the upper 70s to start next work week, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Lower end VFR, with areas of MVFR CIGs, will continue to affect the region through the period. Will also be seeing scattered -SHRA across the area, but perhaps more of a focus across KMBG/KPIR this afternoon. Strong and gusty westerly surface winds will continue across KPIR through the afternoon, gusting to around 40 knots or higher at times. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ033>037-045-048-051. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...TMT