Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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710
FXUS63 KBIS 221735
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1235 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Made some small changes to the POPs for the afternoon generally
decreasing them in the wake of the mid level circulation currently
exiting the state which should put the region in generally weak
subsidence early this afternoon. Also bumped up the northerly
winds about 2 to 4 mph.

UPDATE Issued at 858 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Mid level circulation can be clearly seen in the radar loops
across southwest North Dakota. Updated the POPs with the time lag
hrrr ensemble and this matched up well.

UPDATE Issued at 641 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Shortwave dropping south through western ND is producing an area
of showers From around Dickinson to Glen Ullin and southeast to
Carson and Selfridge early this morning. This area should remain
west of the Bismarck/Mandan area over the next 1-2 hours.
Additional shower activity is possible later this morning and this
afternoon as the main upper low over the northern Great Lakes
lingers over this area today. Updated pops and sky cover based on
latest radar and satellite observations. Updated products will be
out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

An increase in areal coverage of showers and some thunderstorms
today highlights the short term period.

Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave over south central
Saskatchewan which is forecast to dive south through eastern
Montana. This shortwave in combination with the left exit region
of a jet streak will provide large scale ascent mainly across
western ND. A cold front will also swing through, and will
enhance low level convergence. Therefore, an increase in areal
coverage for rain showers is expected this morning across western
North Dakota. For Monday afternoon, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms (across southwest North Dakota) are
expected as broad upper level lift across western and central
North Dakota and diurnal heating provides instability.

Additionally today will be breezy and cool with northerly winds
around 20 mph and temperatures in the 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

The closed upper low in southwest Ontario Monday will begin to
sag south Monday night and Tuesday. This places the James River
Valley in the western fringes of this system resulting in a mostly
cloudy, cool air regime, along with slight chances for showers.
The rest of western and central ND will be dry, with increasing
sunshine, especially farther west. Warmer afternoon highs can be
expected with more sunshine west and north with mid/upper 60s.
The southern James River Valley will remain in the upper 50s.

A shortwave trough and surface cold front sweep through Wednesday
night and Thursday. There is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms west Wednesday evening and a chance of showers the
rest of Wednesday night and Thursday morning across central North
Dakota.

An active period remains through the long term with off and on
chances for showers and thunderstorms. However, precipitation
coverage and amounts should be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the 18Z TAF period
with the exception of KJMS where MVFR ceilings are forecast
towards the end of the period. There is a chance for isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon which may impact KDIK. Otherwise,
scattered showers will continue southward through the day with
chances lingering over KJMS through much of the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AC



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