Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250552
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1252 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

AS OF 545 UTC...FOG CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH FOG
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SHOULD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY. OTHER THEN
TO ADJUST LOWS FOR TONIGHT BASED UPON TRENDS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING AS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AREAS WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND LIGHT WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

EARLY EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS ACROSS THE EAST AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ISOLATED PEA SIZE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE CONVECTION
MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES. EXPECTING FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION
IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 400 J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY
LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...SPC`S NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF COLD AIR FUNNELS OVER BOTTINEAU AND
MCHENRY COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET FUNNEL CLOUD
REPORTS FROM THOSE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER SUNSET...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE. VERY WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE
30S. FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP PROG FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW INDICATED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR SAID REGION
DURING THE 09Z-15Z FRIDAY PERIOD.

WEAK GRADIENT FLOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS IS BEING OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A WET AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR 142W/43N
WITH AN UPSTREAM 300MB JET STREAK OF 160KT DIGGING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG TERM
MODELS WITH A SPLITTING TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY
SATURDAY...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OFF NEAR COLORADO
SUNDAY...THEN CIRCULATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COOLING TREND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...700MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO DEVELOP WEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH
MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM ARRIVES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH IMPINGE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 50S BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

IFR/LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KJMS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
THE 08-14 UTC TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE 06 UTC TAF SET. HOWEVER...POST 06 UTC...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF NEBRASKA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD






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