000
FXUS63 KBIS 152337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

SNOW IS ENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WEST FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. WARM ADVECTION WILL
RETURN TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ERODE THE CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT WEST. A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EAST. INITIALIZED THE CLOUD FIELD WITH THE VISIBLE SAT
DATA AND THIS GAVE THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LESS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED THIS INTO THE EVENING. THE RESULT IS LESS
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE
BASIN TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SO TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES
DOWN THIS EVENING WHICH RESULTS IN A COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW...BUT
TEMPS LIKELY STABILIZE AND REBOUND LATE AS WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING.
SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND ONE INCH WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH THE BISMARCK AIRPORT RECEIVING 0.4 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS PROG PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PROXIMATE TO THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG WARM-AIR ADVECTION...THE PRECIP
TYPE WILL LIKELY BECOME A MIX OF SLEET/RAIN/AND SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

WARM MID LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE DAKOTAS (THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTHEAST) AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHERN MONTANA. WHILE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS MY NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS WITH MODELS DEPICTING OVERRUNNING
FLOW OVER THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
CHALLENGING...WITH THE WARM H85 TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SFC
TEMPERATURES STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN A MIX OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. TOOK OUT MOST OF THE SNOW.

AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GATHERS STRENGTH MONDAY AS IT
MOVES/DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WILL TRANSITION THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
MAINLY RAIN LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR IS
PULLED SOUTH INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND SHOULD SEE THE PRECIP TYPE
BECOMING ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH TIME. ALONG THE
TRANSITION ZONE...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
LINGERS...WILL SEE ANOTHER THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. ALL
SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WINDING
DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE SPREAD IN MODELS REMAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...REGARDING THE TRACK AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW...WHICH IMPACTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND
WHERE. THUS IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN ANY SNOW
AMOUNTS...WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS STILL BEING SHOWN BY
THE MODELS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. WE DID
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING SOME OF THE
POTENTIAL WEATHER WHICH MAY BE DELIVERED TO THE REGION BY THIS
STORM SYSTEM. ONE MORE THING OF NOTEWORTHY IS THE 12Z NAM`S
DEPICTION OF NEAR 900 J/KG OF CAPE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NEAR THE SD
BORDER...WITH EVEN THE GFS HINTING AT SHOWALTERS NEAR ZERO. SO
THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THAT WILL ALSO BE FOLLOWED OVER
THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES.

BEYOND TUESDAY...PERIODIC WAVES WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A MORE NOTABLE SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH MID-WEEK
AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH...THEN TREND COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY PULLING
IN COLDER AIR SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT
WILL RETURN EAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...IMPACTING KISN/KDIK. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY 06Z. OTHERWISE VFR AT KMOT-KBIS-
KJMS. ON SUNDAY WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 22 KTS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

NOTE THAT ICE WAS AFFECTING CREEKS AND RIVERS AND UNTIL THAT ICE
CLEARS...SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY.

EVEN THOUGH THE BEAVER CREEK AT LINTON IS AT 13 FEET...WHICH IS
MAJOR FLOOD STAGE...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ASSURED US THAT
THERE ARE NO IMPACTS AT THIS STAGE. THEY ARE CURRENTLY DOCUMENTING
THE LACK OF IMPACTS AT THIS STAGE IN AN EFFORT TO RE-ASSESS THE
FLOOD CATEGORIES AT A LATER DATE. AS A RESULT OF COORDINATING WITH
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...THE NWS WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BEAVER CREEK.

OTHERWISE...FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS...IN THE
MISSOURI RIVER BASIN...

THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WILLISTON AFFECTING WILLIAMS AND MCKENZIE
COUNTIES. MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE.

LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER AT MEDORA AFFECTING BILLINGS AND GOLDEN
VALLEY COUNTIES. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST DUE TO ICE JAMS.

CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN AFFECTING MORTON AND SIOUX COUNTIES.
MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.

IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...THE LITTLE MISSOURI THROUGH BOWMAN
AND SLOPE COUNTIES. ICE JAM FLOODING CAUSING RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN
WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE NEARING AN END.

IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...

A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER
AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST BY LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...TM/AJS