Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK



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