000
FXUS63 KBIS 180619
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
119 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

UPDATE MAINLY TO REFINE POPS FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS
OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHERN HALF SHOULD
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS IS
LOW. HOWEVER...STRONGER STORMS COULD DUMP A QUICK INCH OF RAIN AND
CAUSE PONDING WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS IS PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LOWERED FROM CONTINUITY
BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS AND COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. THEY NOW REFLECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE AVAILABLE 12 UTC THROUGH 18 UTC
GUIDANCE DISAGREES WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND 23 UTC. WHILE THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENT RADAR CONFIRMS THAT SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THAT FEATURE WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSOURI SLOPE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH NO LIGHTENING HAS BEEN OBSERVED THERE. LOOK
FOR THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND FILL IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC FORCING MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THERE IS A SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. NORTH DAKOTA
LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE BACKED...FORECAST CLOUD COVER JUSTIFIED MODEL
SOUNDINGS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. THUS...THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS UNLESS CLEARING
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEFORE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN REGARDS OF THE FORMATION
AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BROAD WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST AND OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE 12Z GFS REMAINS THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION MOVING AND WEAKENING
THE CLOSED OFF LOW AWAY FROM THE DAKOTAS BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF/GEM KEEPS IT MEANDERING OVER THE DAKOTAS BEFORE PUSHING
EAST AND WEAKENING BY LATE NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A REX BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN AMERICA WILL BEGIN TO SET UP AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES PLACE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED OFF LOW AND
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.

AS A RESULT IN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITIONING AND MOVEMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION DIFFER
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...MOST NOTABLY ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
THESE DAYS AS THE LOW HOVERS OVERHEAD...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF
THE NORTH AND WEST DRY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO STICK CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE FOR QPF...WHICH KEEPS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON TRACK FOR
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTHWEST. IN REGARDS TO ANY
POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES...CONDITIONS ARE SUCH THAT SOILS CAN
ABSORB SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THUS...SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM
RIVERS SUCH AS THE SOURIS AND JAMES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES OR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED RUNOFF...LEADING TO RISES ON SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TAKE OVER....WITH AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER LIMITED DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RK
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...LTH
AVIATION...RK