Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230750
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
250 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Main highlight today is the ongoing showers and thunderstorms across
portions of western and central North Dakota. Tied to this is a
flood watch for central ND which remains in effect through early
afternoon.

The latest water vapor imagery shows the upper level low circulating
over southeast Alberta with an associated cold front now into
eastern Montana. Much drier air behind the front with dewpoints in
the 40s. This front will be into western ND around 12z Saturday,
then shifting into central ND by 18z. Still expect periodic
showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Some storms
will contain very heavy downpours. The drier air in Montana will
spill into western ND this afternoon.

Severe thunderstorms possible across the James River Valley today
as noted by SPC day one outlook. With the cold front not pushing
through until 21z-00z, the greatest cape axis and shear will
reside here for possible severe thunderstorms.

Farther west, expect drier but windy conditions with increasing
sunshine. Tranquil weather tonight with a clear sky expected. Lows
will mainly be in the 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Shortwave ridging temporarily dominates Sunday and most of Monday
resulting in dry and warmer weather. Monday afternoon, the threat
for showers and thunderstorms returns in southwest ND then expands
into central ND Monday night. Tuesday through Friday expect near
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as a unsettled west to
northwest flow takes control. The GFS and ECMWF in good agreement
with precipitation chances exiting from west to east Friday,
followed by a dry Saturday. Highs for the week will begin warm
with 80s to lower 90s, followed by a gradual cooling trend
Wednesday through Friday. During this time highs will range from
the 70s north to around 80 south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Periods of -shra and -tsra will continue for the western
terminals, KISN/KDIK until 12z-14z Saturday; and for KMOT/KBIS
until 15z- 18z. KJMS will hold onto the precipitation until 21z
Saturday. Brief periods of mvfr cigs/vsbys possible with any
thunderstorm, otherwise expect vfr conditions.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon for
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS



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