Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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194
FXUS63 KBIS 250952
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
352 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be continued dry
and mild weather.

Currently, northwest flow aloft as upper level ridging slowly
builds west of the Rockies. Low level clouds remain over my far
northeast near a weak baroclinic zone, extending north-northwest
into south central Canada.

RAP/HRRR/NAM were all a tad aggressive in developing these clouds
southward early this morning. While still expect low stratus
northeast, I did scale back on the aerial coverage a bit based on
the last few hours of satellite imagery, and still expect an
eastward push this morning/afternoon 15-20Z as a weak warm front
moves east across central ND. Weak impulse upstream within the
flow is also contributing to SCT-BKN upper level clouds streaming
southeast towards the Northern Plains. These clouds will continue
to move across much of North Dakota during the AM hours,
especially across my north and east as depicted by the GFS/NAM so
kept sky cover elevated for those locations during the morning
with decreasing clouds thereafter as surface high pressure
rebuilds. Overall a quiet day with mild temperatures and a
relatively light southwest wind.

Upper level ridge off to our west continues to amplify today and
tonight. Embedded S/WV impulse moves through the ridge and into
the Dakotas early Sunday morning. Models in good agreement
maintaining dry conditions with this feature, though do expect an
increase in upper level cloud cover after 05Z and into Sunday
morning across the region.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

Mainly quiet with above normal temperatures through the extended
period.

Boundary layer WAA spreads across western into central ND during
the day Sunday, except my northeast which remains in a colder
airmass. Mid/high clouds from Saturday night will be on the
decrease. Lack of a decent mixing wind will keep daytime highs
below their potential maxes, but still very mild with highs
forecast in the lower 60s southwest. Quite a baroclinic
zone/temperature difference from southwest to northeast Sunday
with highs in the Turtle Mountain area only in the lower 30s.

Warm boundary layer air spreads east/remains overhead Sunday
night, with an advancing cold front pushing into the northwest by
mid morning Monday. This front will slide southeast during the
day with increasing wind and a chance for light rain. Low end
wind advisory conditions emerge Monday, with BUFKIT indicating
35-40KTS within the mixed layer during the day. With an increase
in mixing ahead of the front Monday, highs will again by very mild
for the end of November, and we did opt to increase from blended
guidance.

CAA Monday night with highs Tuesday dropping back into the 40s.
That trend with highs in the 40s will continue Wednesday with
another cold FROPA. Progressive flow with a S/WV ridge Thursday
night/Friday, then another S/WV trough Friday-Friday night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)

Issued at 1242 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

Current HiRes models are hinting at IFR ceilings moving south from
Canada into north central areas of ND around 12Z, then shifting
eastward. IFR ceilings are possible at KMOT though opted for low VFR
in the TAF due to models trending towards IFR ceilings possibly
moving in east of KMOT. Otherwise, conditions should be fairly quiet
through the 06Z TAF period.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AC



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