Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
617
FNUS73 KDLH 101048
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for Crex Unit 78...WI DNR
National Weather Service Duluth MN
548 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 10.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
There is a 30% chance of very light and localized rain showers moving
through the fire from 1000 to 1300 LT today along and behind a cold
front moving southeast across the Northland today. After what could
be a couple hour break in the rain chances from 1300 to 1500 LT today,
scattered thunderstorms may (40% chance) move near the fire site in the
late afternoon and early evening hours today. Isolated strong thunderstorms
with localized erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph and small hail possible
in the strongest storms. Localized rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.25"
are likely with any showers or storms, but the scattered nature of
the rain could lead to areas seeing less than a tenth of an inch.
Winds start out southwesterly from 5 to 8 mph ahead of the front
during the morning, but quickly shift westerly and increase in speed
by early afternoon, and then further shift northwesterly in the mid-
to late afternoon. Minimum RH in the afternoon drops to 35 percent due to
deeper mixing heights today.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1400, then 3 until 1600, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
west 1200-1300 LT and then to the northwest
13 to 14 mph with gusts to around 22
mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL increasing to 6000 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 17 mph shifting to the
northwest 20 to 24 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13700-20000 knot-ft) increasing to
excellent (84300-122700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.09 inches.
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov..... SCH CHC SCH CHC LKY LKY CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 20 30 20 20 50 60 60
LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 3 3 2 2
Temp............48 56 59 64 67 67 68 67 65
RH..............63 51 49 46 43 42 39 37 38
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW W W W NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..6 8 9 10 10 12 13 13 13
20 FT wind gust.13 14 16 16 18 20 21 22 22
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.5 1.5 2.5 5.0 6.0 5.1 5.8 4.8
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW W W NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.14 15 15 17 20 22 21 24 22
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100014 20 19 38 84 113 92 123 90
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
mostly clear (20-30 percent). Chance of rain
showers early in the evening. Slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2000, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL decreasing to 1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 23 mph decreasing to 7 to 12
mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (73100 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to
fair (2500-20700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 10 10 0 0 0
LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............64 56 50 48 45 42
RH..............40 53 68 71 73 82
20 ft wind......NW 12 NW 8 NW 5 NW 5 NW 5 NW 5
20 ft wind gust.20 15 11 11 11 9
Mix hgt (ft)....3700 800 400 500 400 400
Transport wind..NW 23 NW 14 NW 8 NW 9 N 10 NW 12
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100073 10 3 4 4 5
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 5200 ft AGL late in
the morning, then increasing to 7600 ft AGL in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 16 mph shifting to the west 13 to
14 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4000-19300 knot-ft) increasing to
excellent (62000-84700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............40 48 58 64 68 70
RH..............89 71 53 40 33 31
20 ft wind......NW 5 NW 5 NW 7 NW 8 NW 9 W 8
20 ft wind gust.9 11 13 14 14 14
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1200 3900 6100 7300 7000
Transport wind..N 12 N 12 N 14 N 15 NW 12 W 14
Haines index....4 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/10004 12 46 81 75 85
$$
Forecaster...Nathan
Requested by...Renae Essenmacher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413650.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL renae.essenmacher@wisconsin.gov