Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170436

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1136 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

No updates needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Weather impacts will be relatively minor over much of the week let
alone the next 24 to 36 hours. Another breezy afternoon will give
way to a seasonal overnight temps with clear skies albeit a few
passing wisps of cirrus. Tuesday will see more of the same
southwest winds and sunny conditions. Temps will be a few degrees
warmer with highs in the mid 70s as adiabatic mixing allows
efficient warming from 900mb or so during the late afternoon.
With the mixing winds in the late afternoon there will again be
the potential to have some gusts up to 30 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The focus for the first several days of the forecast period will be
on fire weather. Wed seems to offer the best potential for fire
weather conditions, principally over the Devils Lake basin, as
humidity values below 25 percent will couple with northwest winds
(after an earlier cold frontal passage) exceeding 25 mph.

Thu would offer diminishing winds, although still 15 to 20 mph,
along with some southerly return flow increasing the afternoon
humidity minima. Guidance is pretty consistent in keeping a dry
forecast through the end of the week with the next system entering
the picture on Sat. GFS is drier with this feature while the ECMWF
paints scant QPF over the area. Both solutions keep the heavier
activity well southeast of the forecast area.

Zonal flow and the preponderance of westerly surface winds will keep
temps well above normal through the period. After the post-frontal
Wed we`ll see temps 15 to 20 degrees above average Thu and Fri with
daytime highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Light winds overnight will pick up again by mid Tuesday morning.
Winds may get a little gusty again by afternoon, but these will
die down again in the early evening. There is a low level jet over
the area Tuesday night, which could lead to some low level wind
shear. Only expecting thin cirrus throughout.




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