Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 290003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
703 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

500 mb short wave moving southeast mainly through eastern Manitoba
and headed for Lake of the Woods and NW Ontario this evening. A
few storms from this shortwave in Manitoba may make it into Lake
of the Woods later tonight so will maintain the low pop. A second
short wave associated with a bit stronger cold front in
northwestern Manitoba will move south and southeast and through
the forecast area on Wednesday. This will generate scattered
t-storms as it does.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Forecast challenges will be pcpn chances late tonight into

Shortwave over sw Sask will propagate ese tonight. Model guidance
consistent in pcpn reaching the MN/international border area
between 09-12z. Showalter indices around zero and lightning
strikes upstream with feature all day so cannot rule out thunder.
Warm advection overnight should hold temperatures up.

Front enters the NW during the am roughly bisecting the fa from
NE-SW by evening. Sufficient cape/instability to maintain
thunder. Cam guidance more spotty with any development in the
afternoon so kept pops in chance ranges. Temperatures will hinge
on degree of solar but should be able to approach seasonal
averages based on thermal profiles even with partial solar.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Still looks like a cold front will drop from north to south across
the FA Wednesday night. This front looks fairly weak and the main
upper support lags well behind the sfc front. Will keep pcpn in the
chance range for now, but overall a fairly weak signal. Any pcpn
looks to move south and east of the FA by 18z Thu with high pressure
moving back in. The high should be right over the top of the FA Thu
night with clear skies and light winds. Morning low temps look to be
on the cool side again. The high will slowly track SE on Friday, but
will still give one more day of dry weather.

More of a zonal flow regime sets up by the upcoming holiday weekend.
This looks to bring a return to periodic shower and thunderstorm
chances, with the first chances arriving Friday night into Saturday.
After this the models begin to differ quite a bit, actually becoming
nearly totally out of phase with each by 12z Tue. Guidance keeps
pcpn chances for nearly the entire weekend and into early next week.
Therefore it will sound like a holiday weekend washout, but like
typical summer time weather there will be dry periods too. With the
pcpn chances come a fair amount of clouds, which could tend to hold
down daily highs a bit.&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

VFR conditions through the period with generally light winds.
Possible pcpn skirting international border late tonight not to
affect any TAF sites.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

VFR thru the pd. High based cumulus from daytime heating will
dissipate this evening leaving some high clouds at times and some
mid level altocu from dissipating storms to our north. Expect a
SCT-BKN CU deck wednesday midday-aftn with isold-sct tstms as a
cool front moves through. Due to sparse coverage and uncertainity
in timing did not include in TAFs yet.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Riddle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.